It is widely reported in the world press that the United States
and Poland have agreed on terms for deploying ballistic missile
interceptors in the East European country. The interceptors would
work in conjunction with radars that will be deployed in the Czech
Republic (the result of another agreement announced earlier this
year). Together, they will comprise a ground-based missile defense
system that would be able to shoot-down a limited number of
ballistic missiles launched from Iran at targets in Europe or North
America. This latest agreement is in the best interest of all the
members of NATO on both sides of the Atlantic. (In fact, NATO has
already endorsed the concept.) Congress should fully support
deployment of the Western European ballistic missile defense
shield.
Just in Time
There are two reasons why the Polish-American deal is the right
answer. The first is that it will serve to deter a nascent Iranian
ballistic missile threat. While intelligence experts disagree on
the full extent of Iranian capabilities, most do not think Iran can
today field a missile that could reach deep into Europe or North
America. Some estimate that Iran could achieve that goal (including
a nuclear warhead to tip the missile) in a few years. For that
reason alone, the U.S.-Poland deal comes none too soon. At best, it
looks like the whole system might be in place by 2013. By some
estimates, an Iranian threat might be well advanced by then.
Perhaps the deployment of land- and sea-based missile defenses
that can protect Europe against limited attacks, coupled with
economic and diplomatic isolation, will convince the Iranian
government that even if they develop a missile threat, in military
terms it will offer them little of practical value. When this
defense is coupled with the nuclear and conventional capabilities
of NATO, the Iranians might realize that the ability of the West to
protect and defend itself is not worth threatening. Perhaps they
will, as other countries have done (including Brazil, South Africa,
and Libya) abandon their nuclear ambitions. But even if they don't,
Europe and the United States will have strategic and conventional
forces that are equal to the task of preventing Iran from
threatening anyone.
Sending a Message
The second reason why a deal between Washington and Warsaw is
the right thing to do concerns Russia. Russia has adamantly opposed
the land-based missile defense deployments in Europe and even
hinted at retaliation for risking their displeasure. Moscow knows
that the missile defense system that is planned is no threat to
them; Russia has more than enough ballistic missiles to overwhelm
any planned missile defenses. Still, they have done much to
pressure European countries to back away from international
cooperation on missile defense. The decisions by Poland and the
Czech Republic show that they are willing to stand up to Russian
intransigence. The Polish decision is particularly courageous in
light of the Russian military incursion into Georgia last week. It
would have been easy for Poland to back away from the deal, which
had dragged on for an inordinate amount of time, leading many
observers to predict the deployments would never happen. Poland
giving into Russian demands, along with an apparently effortless
military triumph in Georgia, would have left Moscow seeing itself
as a new geostrategic force to be reckoned with across Europe and
Asia.
By choosing to make a deal now, however, Poland is sending
exactly the opposite signal--that it will not kowtow to Russian
demands that make no sense. Likewise, in moving forward the United
States and its NATO partners (including Poland) are sending a
message that they take both the Iranian threat and Russian
posturing seriously--and that they are prepared to take a stand
against both.
Indeed, Poland's quick action to conclude the deal in the wake
of the invasion of Georgia--as well as the strong support for
Georgia shown by Poland and the other Eastern European countries
who suffered for so long under the yoke of Soviet oppression--may
help convince the Russians that their disproportionate military
action was a serious miscalculation. Rather than the attack on
Georgia raising Russia's stature as strategic power, Moscow might
find itself more isolated than ever from the West--a high price to
pay for its belligerent behavior.
Opportunity's Child
Congress now has an opportunity to strengthen the security of
the NATO alliance and all its members by encouraging quick action
on the plans to deploy land- and sea-based missile defenses in
Europe. Congress should:
- Agree on a "sense of the Congress" endorsing the rapid
deployment of missile defenses in Europe;
- Restore the cuts made to the Administration's annual
appropriation request for missile defense programs.
The current deal with Poland may be only a child of fortune,
made possible by the sudden turn of events in Georgia.
Nevertheless, it has the opportunity to become something much more
than just a reaction to Russia's egregious actions. Perhaps it will
help serve as wake-up call for NATO. Freedom, safety, and
prosperity can never be taken for granted. NATO must be revitalized
and its military strength restored, leaving no uncertainty that the
alliance can and will defend the sovereignty of its members against
external threats.
James Jay Carafano,
Ph.D., is Assistant Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom
Davis Institute for International Studies and Senior Research
Fellow for National Security and Homeland Security in the Douglas
and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage
Foundation.