Trump Will Never Forgive Burnham if the Chagos Deal Is Resurrected

COMMENTARY Europe

Trump Will Never Forgive Burnham if the Chagos Deal Is Resurrected

Aug 27, 2026 3 min read
COMMENTARY BY
Nile Gardiner, PhD

Director, Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom and Bernard and Barbara Lomas Fellow

Nile Gardiner is Director of The Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom and Bernard and Barbara Lomas Fellow.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham speaks to staff at the met office during a visit on August 14, 2026 in Exeter, United Kingdom. Finnbarr Webster / Getty Images

When Andy Burnham heads to the UN General Assembly in New York next month, he will likely face pressure from Mauritius to cede British sovereignty over the Chagos Islands in a major test on the international stage for the new Prime Minister.

In April, Donald Trump emphatically sank the much reviled Chagos surrender deal, which he called “an act of great stupidity”.

It was a humiliating blow to Sir Keir Starmer and his lame duck Labour Government, and may even have played a part in its downfall. The proposed deal signed in May last year to hand over the British Indian Ocean Territory to Mauritius, a close Chinese ally, would have been disastrous for the future of Diego Garcia, a vital military base. For one, it would have given Beijing a strategic win primarily at Washington’s expense. It would also have cost British taxpayers a staggering £35bn over the next few decades. To put that in perspective, the entire British annual defence budget stands at £62bn.

>>> Never Forget: It Was Trump Who Sunk Starmer’s Chagos Surrender

The U.S. president hates the Chagos deal and views it as a spectacularly reckless own goal for the UK. His direct intervention, a Washington campaign led by The Heritage Foundation and a determined last stand across the Atlantic by members of the House of Lords, combined with strong opposition from Reform Leader Nigel Farage, proved vital in halting the worst agreement in post-war British history.

Burnham has so far remained silent on Chagos and to his credit, has sacked Starmer’s Attorney General, Lord Hermer, the architect of the original Chagos surrender. However, his Government has already made it abundantly clear there is no change to Britain’s official position. Downing Street and the mandarins of the Foreign Office now led by Trump critic Ed Miliband are already planning to revive discussions with the Trump administration to convince them to lift U.S. opposition.

Having worked closely with the White House in opposing Starmer’s Chagos surrender, my advice to the Prime Minister and his advisers is to not touch the Chagos issue with a barge pole. If Burnham is thinking of falling on his sword when he visits the United States by pushing a deal that Trump has condemned no less than three times, he is playing with fire.

Such a move would be seen in the West Wing and the Eisenhower Executive Office Building (home of the National Security Council) as hugely insulting to the American people. In fact, it would be guaranteed to poison relations between Burnham and Trump and immediately put the Special Relationship under further strain. Starmer did enough damage. There is nothing to be gained by Burnham’s team trying to raise a deal from the depths of the Indian Ocean after it has already been torpedoed.

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Every single White House official I have spoken to about Chagos thinks the deal is completely insane and a grave threat to the future of Diego Garcia and U.S. national security. The Foreign Office needs to wake up and smell the coffee inside the Washington Beltway, where there is no desire to appease Beijing or woke supranational courts like the International Court of Justice, which issued the initial advisory ruling on Chagos.

Chagos is also an incredibly sensitive issue at this time for the U.S. with the continuing war against Iran. Diego Garcia’s strategic importance as a home of B-2 Spirit stealth bombers has never been greater. It would be utter madness for the Labour Government to prioritise once again the handover of British territory to a country, Mauritius, that is increasingly aligned with communist China. It would give Beijing unprecedented additional leverage in the Indo-Pacific at a time when tensions are mounting over China’s threats to invade Taiwan.

Burnham has a clear choice. Build a constructive and productive relationship with Trump or burn bridges fast by poking the American Eagle over issues such as Chagos. It is in Britain’s national interest to have a foreign policy that firmly defends British sovereignty over its overseas territories including the Chagos Islands, the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar, while standing shoulder to shoulder with the U.S., the closest friend and ally of the United Kingdom.

This piece originally appeared in The Telegraph

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