The Australia-U.K.-U.S. effort (AUKUS) to develop an indigenous nuclear submarine program in Australia is nearing a major milestone: arrival of the first rotationally based nuclear submarine. Per the optimum pathway agreed by the three nations, the first U.S. submarine is to arrive in 2027—but the sooner the better. Yet no submarine has been named yet, imperiling the entire endeavor.

AUKUS began in September 2021, and the heads of state gathered in March 2023 at submarine base Point Loma in Sand Diego, California to sustain the effort. Australia, in a first for the U.S., has made three payments into the American submarine industrial base—a down payment of $1 billion that will total $3 billion USD for Australia’s first nuclear submarine, a lightly used Virginia-class submarine due in the mid-2030s.

Critically, these payments are intended to support submarine shipbuilding capacity, which has lagged for years and must reach a rate of more than 2.33 boats constructed a year to meet AUKUS delivery timelines. Today the build rate is closer to 1.2 boats a year. Breaking this ceiling will require sustained increasing shipyard capital investments that AUKUS is partly funding.

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Yet stubbornly laggard American submarine production runs the risk today of eroding necessary political support in Australia and the U.S. for AUKUS. While polling in Australia has remained supportive (68% currently), there is ample skepticism in Washington that the needed expansion in shipbuilding will arrive in time. Capital improvements take years to deliver visible results. As such, the next milestone in AUKUS is of critical importance.

AUKUS’s next major milestone is the arrival of the first of three U.S. nuclear submarines at their new home at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia (also known as the Submarine Rotational Force West, or SRF-W). Much has been done to prepare for these boats’ arrival over the past three years—increased submarine port visits, repair shop improvements, pier expansion, provision of added family support services, etc. However, still to be addressed is the need for a local dry dock to support SRF-W. This is not a new issue, but with proper preparation it should not delay the 2027 arrival of the first U.S boat to HMAS Stirling.

With respect to deciding the first U.S. boat to SRF-W, there are several considerations that make it imperative the Navy announce its choice now: One, completion of all maintenance requiring dry docking on named boat through 2032. Two, make appropriate Congressional and crew notification of the change of home port; normally a year prior but best no less than six months prior to departure from the U.S. Three, allow adequate time for operational deployment planning both at the Pentagon and Pacific Fleet. Finally, it gives assurance to the many local and American enterprises making investments to support SRF-W and continue needed investments and hiring for AUKUS.

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But most important for naming and setting a hard arrival date of the first boat of the SRF-W is political. As concerns simmer over confidence that AUKUS will deliver, another head of state event is needed, as was done in San Diego. As U.S. and U.K. nuclear submarines and submarine support ships visit HMAS Stirling, there will be opportunity for the heads of state to gather there and announce the first arrival to SRF-W.

A head of state event in late 2026 and subsequent 2027 arrival of a U.S. boat to SRF-W will have strategic value. It will immediately enhance forward naval presence of a capability China fears—America’s nuclear submarines are an apex predator. Done earliest in 2027, it complicates China’s preparation for a war over the fate of Taiwan that Beijing has set as a goal to complete that same year.

AUKUS has been reviewed and assessed by all three nations as strategically and industrially important; to include the current administration in Washington. It is time for another push from the top to keep things moving at speed.