The current fiscal year (2018) began Oct. 1. Congress is already two and a half months late on enacting a new federal spending package. Surprise! They just kicked the can another two weeks down the road, and the new deadline, Dec. 22, puts Christmas-time drama on the table.

Congress has to renew and adjust government spending every year, but most years, it is completely unable to do so in a reasonable and timely fashion while reflecting the values of the voters. This inability would baffle most normal people, but in Washington, it’s business as usual. With some numbers, dates, and rider changes, this article could have been written about almost any other funding battle in recent memory.

Why can’t Congress reasonably translate the promises they made to voters into a budget, even if it involves some level of compromise? Why does spending go up every year even as our debt charges north of $20 trillion? These two questions actually have the same answer, and it explains the repeat performance we see from Congress every year.

Republicans cannot fund the government alone; they’ll need Democrat votes in the Senate, and likely in the House, to pass a funding bill. That means Democrats have leverage over Republicans. If Republicans refuse to comply Democrats’ demands, they can’t pass a bill and the government will “shut down.” Republicans make matters worse with their irrational fear of shutdowns: many of them falsely believe they’ll be blamed for every shutdown no matter the circumstances.

The “shutdown” narrative, and the Republican fear of it, drives these big spending debates, and ultimately hands the minority party more leverage than the majority. The Democrats, knowing they’re locked and loaded with a full charge of leverage, make high demands of Republican leadership in order to get their votes. In a vicious cycle, compliance with those demands often rightly forecloses the possibility of fiscal conservatives voting for the bill, which in turn hands Democrats even more control of the process.

This year, Democrats are using their leverage in an attempt to extract two major concessions from Republicans: big spending increases, and amnesty.

President Trump and Republicans in Congress agree on the urgent need to increase the Pentagon’s resources to improve our military readiness and capability. In the short term, that means a large appropriations increase for the Department of Defense. Under the Budget Control Act, this increase would trigger an automatic sequester which would undo much of the benefit of the increase.

Republicans are seeking to adjust the BCA so that doesn’t happen. The fiscally sound adjustment would be to allow a defense increase, and balance the fiscal impact of such an increase with a cut to domestic spending. Instead, Democrats will only allow it if domestic spending is increase by equal amount, doubling the negative fiscal impact.

Democrats, and a few Republicans, are seeking a second demand: permanent amnesty for recipients of President Obama’s illegal amnesty program, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Depending on the particular proposal, a “DACA fix” could actually describe a much broader, more sweeping amnesty and could allow chain migration. Of course, President Trump and many Republicans oppose some, if not all, of these proposals, especially attached to a spending bill.

Democrats, and a few Republicans, are seeking a second demand: permanent amnesty for recipients of President Obama’s illegal amnesty program, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Depending on the particular proposal, a “DACA fix” could actually describe a much broader, more sweeping amnesty and could allow chain migration. Of course, President Trump and many Republicans oppose some, if not all, of these proposals, especially attached to a spending bill.

Democrats may parlay their leverage over the spending process into a victory in the Congress. That move, however, would put the president in an impossible position. He’s have to choose between strength on the signature issue of his campaign and a veto that could lead to a government shutdown. If Republicans leaders on the hill let that happen, they’d be guilty of political malpractice.

In the end, Congress is facing a particularly challenging impasse with few favorable outcomes. As in all things, something has to give. History may again repeat itself this year, or 2017 may be the year the cycle is broken, and the majority party may actually be able to advance their priorities.