On Aug. 8, Russia decided to rewrite the rules of post-World War
II European security. It repudiated the Helsinki Pact of 1975,
which recognized the sanctity of borders in Europe, and violated
the sovereignty and territorial integrity of NATO aspirant Georgia,
whose troops had attacked South Ossetia the day before. In the
process, Russia also tore up its own peacekeeping mandate in South
Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Moscow desires to become a hegemonic power in the former Soviet
space. The Georgian war brought Russia back to the Southern
Caucasus in force, outflanking oil-rich Azerbaijan, and affecting
control over the principal energy and rail arteries bringing
natural resources from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia to the West
and consumer and industrial goods to the East. The Russian military
practically destroyed the Georgian military, which protected the
pipelines and the Georgian port of Poti, the important Black Sea
terminal of the East-West corridor.
The war in the Caucasus, however, surpasses the regional agenda.
In fact, Russia's war aims are far-reaching and include:
Expulsion of Georgian troops and termination of Georgian
sovereignty in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, something that was
accomplished.
"Regime change" by bringing down President Mikheil Saakashvili
and installing a more pro-Russian leadership in Tbilisi.
Preventing Georgia from joining NATO and sending a strong
message to Ukraine that its insistence on NATO membership may lead
to a civil unrest in the Crimea, where many Russian citizens
reside, and potentially, to the country's dismemberment.
Shifting control of the Caucasus, and especially over strategic
energy pipelines and the transportation corridor from the Caspian
to the Black Sea, by controlling Georgia.
Re-creating a 19th-century style sphere of influence in the
former Soviet Union, by the use of force if necessary.
Such anti-status quo revisionism is the stuff of which world
wars are made. Think the Balkan wars that preceded World War I or
Adolf Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in
1938 - with Europe's acquiescence.
Russia proclaims that it wants to shift the global balance of
power away from the United States; "Finlandize" Europe; revise
global economic institutions; and return to highly competitive and
often confrontational great power politics, reminiscent of the 19th
century. Realists: 1, Fukuyama: 0.
In his recent nationally televised statement, Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev announced as much. He rejected "unipolarity" - the
code word for U.S. global leadership, calling such a world
"unstable and conflict-ridden."
Mr. Medvedev declared that while Russia does not want to isolate
itself, it would defend "the life and dignity of its citizens
wherever they are," as well as its business interests. Most
important, the Russian leader declared that his country has regions
of "privileged interests," which are not limited to Russia's
borderlands. One could include Iran, Syria, Cuba and even Venezuela
in such a list.
Beyond that, Russia went into a diplomatic high gear, receiving
the support of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which
includes China and the five Central Asian states (Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) as members,
and Iran, Mongolia, India and Pakistan as associate members. SCO
expressed support for Russian action in Georgia but stopped short
of recognizing independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Russia also significantly shored up the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) of the Commonwealth of Independent
States. Comprising, besides Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Mr. Medvedev has announced
that CSTO is going to build up its military muscle and its foreign
policy will strongly support Moscow. Russia openly announced that
CSTO is becoming a military bloc, similar to - and opposing -
NATO.
The next U.S. administration and its allies need to design a
comprehensive policy countering Moscow's bid to shift the global
balance of power away from liberal democracies and in favor of the
oil-rich Authoritarian International. China and India will be the
most important swing states in this struggle.
At this point, the U.S. and its European allies should not
emphasize military power to confront Russian revanchism. There is
too much unfinished business in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the
global war on terror. Nor are there troop and military hardware
levels present for a massive military buildup along Russia's
perimeter. Europe has no appetite for a new confrontation with the
Kremlin, while the U.S. economy suffers from the record deficit and
debt levels.
Yet, the U.S. should take a leadership role in building a global
coalition against Russian revisionist policies, expanding a
strategic dialogue with European capitals, New Delhi and Beijing.
Ukrainian and Georgian membership in NATO and the EU should be
given serious consideration. Washington should communicate to
Moscow that Russia has much to lose, including its unrestricted
financial and economic ties to the advanced market economies.
Russian state-owned energy companies - the cash cows of the
Russian budget - trade their American Depository Receipts (ADRs) in
New York and London. Russia is dependent on Western market and
cutting edge technologies both for its military buildup and for its
increasingly expensive hydrocarbon development.
Russia has also pursued policies of restricting access to its
"strategic" commodities for the West. If it continues to do so, the
U.S. and Europe can reciprocate by cutting access for Russian
state-owned companies to investment in companies vital to our
national security.
Hosting the 2014 Winter Olympics in the Black Sea resort of
Sochi, 20 kilometers from the Georgian border may be a non-starter,
and so may be the membership in the Group of Eight. Finally, since
the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has neglected its capabilities to
wage the war of ideas, a key battlefield in which it defeated the
Soviets. These capabilities are also crucial to win the war against
radical Islamist ideology. In this century, the West needs to use
its creativity and technological prowess to reach the post-Soviet
and Muslim audiences despite increasing TV censorship and vitriolic
anti-American brainwashing.
History has not ended, neither did geopolitics. The next
administration has its work cut out for it from the Baltic Sea to
the Pacific.
History has not ended, neither did geopolitics. The next
administration has its work cut out for it from the Baltic Sea to
the Pacific.
Ariel Cohen is
senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies at the
Heritage Foundation.