WASHINGTON—Today, The Heritage Foundation released TIDALWAVE, an Artificial Intelligence–enabled model and computer simulation to replicate an extended (greater than six months) escalation scenario between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Indo-Pacific. TIDALWAVE identifies gaps and deficiencies and corresponding solutions to resolve anticipated shortfalls in our ability to project and sustain forces and to exploit adversary vulnerabilities in order to deplete their ability to conduct military operations. The project examines two systems anticipated to have the greatest impact on sustainment capacity: fuel and ammunition. Our ultimate aim is to guide national deliberations on how best to project and sustain U.S. and allied forces in a protracted conflict, resolve existing deficiencies, and exploit adversary weaknesses.  

TIDALWAVE arrives at a pivotal moment, as President Trump continues his historic efforts to restore American military strength and has pledged to dramatically increase defense spending to $1.5 trillion reaching 5% of our GDP. The report’s recommendations align with the President’s objectives to rebuild deterrence, modernize U.S. forces, and ensure America can prevail amid escalating global threats, particularly from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).  

Dr. Kevin Roberts, president of The Heritage Foundation and Heritage Action, emphasized the critical importance of a project like TIDALWAVE: 

"The People’s Republic of China poses the most significant threat that the U.S. has faced in decades, yet despite such a broadly accepted fact, we remain dangerously unprepared to counter this adversary. Heritage is committed to applying the latest technology to undertake unprecedented challenges and provide solutions to the most pressing national security threats we face. TIDALWAVE is ideally timed to guide and inform the ongoing discussion, presenting an exhaustive argument exposing both China’s and our own vulnerabilities and proposing solutions." 

Victoria Coates, vice president of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy at Heritage, added:  

“The stakes could not be higher, and the hour is late given that Chairman Xi of China has told his armed forces to be ready for conflict in 2027. The Davis Institute is dedicated to harnessing the new analytic capabilities represented by AI to provide solutions that will deter China and prevent the massive adverse economic consequences that would result from a potential conflict between us." 

Robert Greenway, director of the Allison Center for National Security at Heritage, and author of TIDALWAVE, stated: 

"Ultimately, TIDALWAVE demonstrates the utility of applied technology and system modeling in examining the most pressing national security threats of our time. By translating gaps and deficiencies in complex systems into executable recommendations, the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for National Security's unprecedented effort will inform the application of limited resources to safeguard our vital interests and ensure that we are fully prepared to prevail should a conflict occur." 

TIDALWAVE was designed to answer an urgent strategic question: How would the United States sustain combat operations in a protracted conflict with the People’s Republic of China, and which vulnerabilities in People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are susceptible to exploitation? 

Key Findings:  

• In a conflict with China, the U.S. culminates* in less than half the time, as the PRC resulting in catastrophic defeat. *Incapable of continuing operations due to a lack of platforms, ammunition, and/or fuel.  

• The U.S. is not equipped nor arrayed to protect and sustain the Joint Force in a conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific. 

• Critical U.S. munitions begin to be unavailable within 5-7 days and are completely exhausted within 35-40 days across most scenarios. 

• PLA ammunition stockpiles of critical munitions begin to be depleted after 20-30 days of major combat operations, but substitutes extend munitions sustainment by months. 

As principled advocates for a peace through strength approach, The Heritage Foundation has consistently supported a robust defense, credible deterrence, and enhanced military readiness, not to seek war, but to prevent it. We believe that ensuring safety at home begins by demonstrating strength to our adversaries.