Cop30, the UN climate conference, is taking place in Brazil this week, but one subject is unlikely to be up for discussion. Environmentalists’ misleading views of climate change are discouraging people from having children, exacerbating the global demographic crisis.

The fertility rate across developed nations has fallen sharply, from an average of 3.3 births per woman in 1950 to just 1.5, well below the replacement level required to sustain population levels, according to the OECD’s latest Employment Outlook. This demographic shift is placing mounting pressure on pension systems and healthcare services, and threatens to constrain long-term economic growth unless offset by gains in productivity and workforce participation. Mass migration of workers to the West is not a viable long-term solution, given that it is difficult to predict the skills needed and the costs involved in large-scale assimilation and training.

As fertility rates decline, the proportion of retirees relative to the working-age population—known as the old-age dependency ratio—is rising. According to the OECD, across member countries the ratio rose from 19pc in 1980 to 31pc in 2023, and is projected to reach 52pc by 2060. This means that workers will, in effect, be supporting not only themselves but also half the income needs of a retiree.

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This demographic headwind is expected to reduce annual GDP growth across OECD countries by around 40pc from its current annual rate of 1pc. Between 2024 and 2060, average annual growth is projected to slow to just 0.6pc. The result: diminished output, fewer goods and services, and a lower standard of living for future generations.

Britain is among the worst affected by this trend: fertility rates have fallen to historic lows, dropping to 1.41 children per woman in 2024 in England and Wales. Scotland’s rate is even lower, at 1.25, and the UK has a faster fertility decline than any other G7 nation. Women are having children later, with the average age of first-time mothers now over 29. Some delayed births are made up later, but many never materialize.

This is a demographic challenge that cannot be ignored. It is also one increasingly shaped by cultural and psychological factors, including climate anxiety.

Multiple factors drive this trend, from economic concerns to expanded educational opportunities. But emerging international research confirms that climate anxiety, which will likely be ramped up this week at Cop30, is influencing reproductive decisions worldwide.

A 2023 study published in PLOS Climate by UCL researchers analyzed 13 studies across the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Europe, finding consistent links between climate-related fears and reduced intent to have children. Ethical, environmental, and political concerns about climate change were associated with a desire for fewer or no children in nearly all studies examined.

Similarly, a 2025 study in Genus focused on Italy and found that individuals who viewed climate change as a major future threat were significantly less likely to plan for children, even after controlling for socioeconomic and ideological factors.

These results suggest that climate anxiety is not just a fringe concern but a growing global phenomenon that could have real demographic consequences. This represents a profound cultural shift, albeit one rooted in apocalyptic messaging that has echoed for decades.

The intellectual lineage traces back to Thomas Malthus, whose 1798 treatise warned that population growth would inevitably outstrip food production.

Biologist Paul Ehrlich updated this pessimism for modern audiences with his 1968 bestseller The Population Bomb, predicting that “hundreds of millions of people will starve to death” in the 1970s and 1980s. The Club of Rome’s influential 1972 report “Limits to Growth” used computer models to forecast resource depletion and pollution-driven collapse unless policy curtailed population and economic expansion.

The predictions never materialized. Food availability increased. Commodity prices stabilized after temporary spikes. Advanced economies improved air and water quality while growing richer. Yet the neo-Malthusian narrative persists, now repackaged as a climate emergency, with activists claiming that we have fewer than 10 years to save the planet from becoming unlivable.

What these forecasts consistently miss is human adaptability. They treat resources as fixed, population as a pressure, and innovation as negligible. Reality operates differently. Economic development doesn’t exhaust resources, but creates them through technological advances, price-induced substitution, and institutional reform. Where these forces operate freely, productivity tends to rise and environmental quality tends to improve alongside income growth.

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The choice to have children remains deeply personal, shaped by individual circumstances and preferences. But it shouldn’t rest on mistaken premises about environmental collapse.

Billions today enjoy longer, healthier lives than their ancestors. Climate-related deaths have collapsed over the past century, according to the International Disaster Database. Climate deaths per million people plummeted from 255 in 1920 to 1.9 in 2020, a decline of almost 100pc. Development and infrastructure dramatically reduce vulnerability to natural hazards.

Wealthier societies can afford cleaner technology, better infrastructure, and more effective disaster response. They substitute away from scarce resources, develop alternatives, and implement regulations targeting genuine externalities. The mechanisms that Malthusian models hold constant are precisely what change outcomes in real economies.

Rather than constraining economic growth to preserve pre-industrial temperatures, sound policy would accelerate the development that has made the world more livable. The next generation won’t inherit a dying planet, but rather unprecedented wealth, knowledge, and technological capability, along with the ability to apply human creativity to improve environmental outcomes.

Those deciding whether to have children deserve an accurate picture of the world they’re creating, not doom-laden prophecies that don’t reflect reality. Those at Cop30 should understand that the data are unambiguous: children have never been better positioned to thrive.