Why Bolton’s Trip to Belarus Matters

COMMENTARY Europe

Why Bolton’s Trip to Belarus Matters

Aug 30th, 2019 2 min read
COMMENTARY BY
Alexis Mrachek

Research Assistant, Russia and Eurasia

Alexis is a research assistant in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy.
Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko and U.S. national security adviser John Bolton shake hands during a meeting. Nikolai Petrov / Contributor / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

In The Heritage Foundation’s 2019 Index of Economic Freedom, Belarus is ranked 104th out of 180 countries. That ranking designates it as a “mostly unfree nation.”

For years, U.S. relations with Belarus have suffered. Lukashenko is an autocratic ruler, and he has made Belarus straddle Russia and the West for years.

Russia isn’t releasing its grip on Belarus any time soon, and the U.S. should remain wary.

White House national security adviser John Bolton traveled Thursday to Belarus to meet with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. That’s significant, because no senior U.S. official had visited Belarus in more than 18 years.

During the meeting, Lukashenko said that he would like to open a “new chapter” in U.S.-Belarus relations, despite what Bolton called “significant issues.” Those issues include Belarus’ human rights record and the Russian threat posed in the country.

Belarus, located in Eastern Europe, is regarded as Europe’s last remaining dictatorship. It’s a former member of the Soviet Union and scores low in terms of press freedom, democracy, and economic freedom. 

Out of 180 countries surveyed in Reporters Without Borders’ 2019 World Press Freedom Index, Belarus scores 153rd. That stems partly from Lukashenko’s decision last year to impose about 100 fines on journalists for working for exiled media outlets.

In The Heritage Foundation’s 2019 Index of Economic Freedom, Belarus is ranked 104th out of 180 countries. That ranking designates it as a “mostly unfree nation.”

Belarus is also known for elections that are neither free, nor fair.

For years, U.S. relations with Belarus have suffered. Lukashenko is an autocratic ruler, and he has made Belarus straddle Russia and the West for years.

Belarus also has a history of human rights abuses. Those abuses have caused the U.S. to introduce multiple rounds of sanctions on Belarus over at least the past decade.

It’s extremely significant that Bolton visited, for a couple of reasons.

First, this past January, Belarus finally lifted the cap on the number of U.S. diplomats allowed in Minsk. Before, since 2008, Belarus had allowed only five American diplomats to serve at the U.S. Embassy. But now, that cap has been lifted. 

This decision on Minsk’s part signals a thawing in relations with Washington.

In addition, it was recently reported that Belarus is seeking to buy U.S. crude oil. That would help loosen Moscow’s grip on Minsk, given that Russia currently provides about 99% of Belarus’ crude oil imports. 

It’s great news that Bolton met with Lukashenko. A meeting between top officials from the U.S. and Belarus was long overdue.

Nonetheless, Russia will continue to be involved in the economic, military, and political affairs of Belarus for years to come. Later this year, for example, Belarus and Russia are set to discuss integrating as a union state. That means the two nations would join as one, with its own currency, economy, and flag in tow.

Thus, Russia isn’t releasing its grip on Belarus any time soon, and the U.S. should remain wary.

U.S. interest in Belarus is still important, though. Belarus borders NATO members in the Baltic region, including Poland. In order to maintain its commitment to security for those nations, the U.S. needs to keep in mind Russia’s influence in, and threat posed to, Belarus. Thankfully, Bolton went in with this mindset already.

Bolton’s meeting with Lukashenko is a step in the right direction, and dialogue with Belarus should remain a priority moving forward.

If anything at all is to come from this meeting, it’s that it has definitely put the Kremlin on its toes. But for Belarus, it likely only improved its bargaining position with Russia for the future.

This piece originally appeared in The Daily Signal