Britain Will Thrive Outside the EU

COMMENTARY Europe

Britain Will Thrive Outside the EU

May 14, 2018 3 min read
COMMENTARY BY

Former Director, Allison Center for Foreign Policy

Luke Coffey oversaw research on nations stretching from South America to the Middle East.
The British people were fed up with living under the yoke of Brussels. vwalakte/Getty Images

With less than a year remaining until the UK leaves the EU, there is a lot of doom and gloom about the country’s prospects outside the bloc. Much of this pessimism can be attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations between London and Brussels on what the terms of the divorce will be in March 2019.

This glumness about life outside the EU is exacerbated by a political elite in the UK that is still in complete denial that Brexit will even take place, and a media that has served as its echo chamber. But most of the cynicism toward Brexit is fueled by those who campaigned for the UK to remain in the EU; after losing the referendum in June 2016, they have not stopped campaigning.

In the weeks leading up to the referendum, “remainers” resorted to exaggerated scaremongering dubbed “Project Fear.” Everything from World War III to economic depression, genocide in Europe and climate catastrophes were predicted if the UK leaves the EU. However ludicrous this might seem now, this was the level of discourse for much of the campaign.

Even the British government dabbled in Project Fear. An official report published by Her Majesty’s Treasury only two months before the referendum audaciously claimed: “A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP (gross domestic product) would be 3.6% smaller… compared with a vote to remain.” But most major economic indicators paint a different picture. The British economy has come nowhere close to entering a recession. In fact, it ended 2016 as the fastest-growing economy in the G-7.

The British people were fed up with living under the yoke of Brussels. After successive treaties and subsequent transfers of national sovereignty to the EU, a majority of the population reached breaking point.

In many ways, 2017 has been a bumper year for the economy. The UK is posting an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, the lowest since 1975. In 2017, the country enjoyed the highest level of foreign direct investment in its history, exports were up 11.5 percent, and manufacturing was up 3.9 percent.

The number of new technology companies launched in the UK last year rose by almost 60 percent compared to 2016. There was more venture capital in the country’s tech sector in 2017 than in France, Germany, Spain and Ireland combined. The fear of a banking exodus from London has been unfounded too. In fact, banks are staying put and even expanding their presence in the capital.

Britain’s ability to sign its own free-trade agreements, instead of giving Brussels the authority to do so, was one of the strongest arguments for leaving the EU. Even before Brexit, the UK traded more outside the EU than it did with it. The newly established Department for International Trade, created after the Brexit vote in 2016, has worked tirelessly to lay the foundations for global trade deals for the UK after it formally leaves the EU.

So far talks have taken place with 21 countries, including the US, Australia, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. This is good because according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 90 percent of global economic growth in the next 10-15 years will be outside the EU.

Even with the UK’s economic success, the path that it has chosen to leave the EU might not be the path that others should follow. Each member has to decide if the benefits of membership outweigh the loss of national sovereignty. For many of the smaller EU members, the answer is no. For the UK, the answer is yes.

Britain has many advantages. It is the world’s fifth-largest economy, it is a member of the 53-nation Commonwealth, it has a permanent seat at the UN Security Council, it has a “special relationship” with the US, it has one of the most capable militaries in the world, and it possesses nuclear weapons. If the UK cannot survive and thrive outside the EU, then who could?

There are often comparisons between Brexit and the rise of US President Donald Trump, who once referred to himself as “Mr. Brexit.” Nothing could be further from the truth. The Brexit campaign was based on the ideas of a “global Britain” and breaking down trade barriers. In contrast, some of Trump’s main messages during the 2016 presidential campaign were about building walls and protectionist trade policies.

The British people were fed up with living under the yoke of Brussels. After successive treaties and subsequent transfers of national sovereignty to the EU, a majority of the population reached breaking point.

Those who voted to leave numbered 17,410,742, making Brexit the single largest political mandate ever given by the British people on anything. Despite claims to the contrary, polling almost two years after the vote shows that if it was held again today, the outcome would be the same.

Leaving the EU will not be all roses. There is a long road ahead. Negotiations between London and Brussels have proven to be more complex than most Brexit supporters expected. Brexit has divided political parties, the government, and the people of Britain in a way that will take a generation to heal. Leaving the EU might bring some short-term uncertainty, but when the dust settles, the UK will thrive outside the bloc. Do not let the doomsayers convince you otherwise.

This piece originally appeared in Arab News