Why Conservative Doubts on Taiwan Are Growing—and Wrong

COMMENTARY China

Why Conservative Doubts on Taiwan Are Growing—and Wrong

Jul 23, 2026 4 min read
COMMENTARY BY
Allen Zhang

Research Assistant, Asian Studies Center

Allen Zhang is a Research Assistant in The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te speaks during the National Day Ceremony outside the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, on October 10, 2025. Daniel Ceng / Anadolu / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

U.S. support for Taiwan, including arms sales, has unquestionably advanced American interests and regional stability.

If Taiwan were to fall to China, Beijing would gain extraordinary influence over the world’s semiconductor supply chain.

Abandoning Taiwan is a misguided idea. Reagan understood that decades ago; conservatives, of all people, should not be the ones to forget.

In the summer of 1981, the U.S.-China relationship seemed to be approaching a breaking point. The constant irritant was Washington’s arms sales to Taiwan, over which Beijing had threatened to sever diplomatic ties outright. Many, including President Ronald Reagan’s own secretary of state, were convinced that China “may well be the most important country in the world” for containing the Soviet threat, and urged him to compromise.

Reagan refused. Negotiating away Taiwan’s security, as he rightly recognized, would have betrayed both American principles and national interests.

Some 40 years later, American support for Taiwan continues to attract criticism even from the Right. Exhausted by decades of neoconservative idealism, some contend that Taiwan is neither worth the risks nor the costs. “Taiwan’s fate,” averred Patrick Porter, “does not matter enough for U.S. security interests to justify such a great risk [of conflict with China].” In this view, Washington should support Taiwan but only up to a point: if the island is invaded, the United States should stand down.

While the decision to militarily intervene in any conflict will ultimately lie with the president, U.S. support for Taiwan, including arms sales, has unquestionably advanced American interests and regional stability.

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For decades, the American commitment to a peaceful status quo has been the chief guarantor of stability in the Taiwan Strait—so effective that peace has held without Washington firing a single shot.

Even if Washington wished to remain neutral, a war over Taiwan would almost certainly draw in American treaty allies. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi just last year called a war over Taiwan “a survival-threatening situation” for Japan. Manila shares much the same view. The Philippines does “not have a choice,” President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has said, “because Taiwan is so close to the Philippines and we have almost 200,000 Filipino nationals living and working in Taiwan.”

Above all, the loss of Taiwan itself would be ruinous to American interests. Abandonment could hand Beijing control of the world’s advanced semiconductor supply, breach the security perimeter of the First Island Chain, and raise serious doubts in regional capitals about America’s commitment to resist Chinese hegemony and to remain an Indo-Pacific power.

Consider the economic implications first. Much of the technological innovation powering the modern American economy traces back to Taiwan. The island produces over 90 percent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, powering everything from smartphones to the high-end military systems used by American forces.

America is already alarmingly dependent on China for a variety of necessary goods, from rare earths to pharmaceutical ingredients. Production of advanced semiconductors is one of the few remaining manufacturing advantages the United States and its partners enjoy.

If Taiwan were to fall to China, Beijing would gain extraordinary influence over the world’s semiconductor supply chain. Last year, Beijing demonstrated a willingness to weaponize access to critical minerals, which, as one report assessed, “nearly [brought] vast swaths of the global economy to a standstill.” Control over the global supply of semiconductors could hand China yet another lever of economic coercion.

The security consequences could be equally dire. Taiwan occupies a central position in the First Island Chain, a defensive arc of U.S. partners and military installations stretching from Japan through the Philippines. The perimeter constrains China’s ability to project military power into surrounding areas and beyond, toward Guam, Hawaii, and the continental United States.

Beijing has grown increasingly brazen over the years, bullying neighbors with its maritime militia and constructing militarized artificial islands in disputed territory. Since 2013, China has built nearly 30 new outposts in the South China Sea and expanded its territorial holdings by 3,200 acres. Using satellite imaging, The Wall Street Journal recently confirmed that China isn’t done: it jump-started construction on Antelope Reef, which “could give Beijing another runway, more missile facilities and additional surveillance installations.”

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If China were to seize Taiwan, not only could America’s ability to operate in the Western Pacific be significantly restricted, but its regional credibility could also be seriously, possibly fatally, damaged. Countries on the fence would be more likely to seek to placate China and bandwagon with the rising power if U.S. power projection is no longer seen as credible.

The answer to the skeptics, then, is to preserve the deterrence that has kept the peace since Reagan. That requires two immediate commitments from Washington.

First, the White House should maintain the longstanding practice of arms sales to Taiwan—without consulting Beijing. The United States is the only arms supplier to the island, making American arms sales an integral part of Taiwan’s security. Washington should continue to approve and, most importantly, fulfill arms deals with Taiwan, which have, in recent years, painfully slowed.

Second, the U.S. Navy should continue naval transits in the Taiwan Strait. As Beijing ratchets up the tempo of air and naval incursions into Taiwanese airspace and the island’s territorial waters, American warships should routinely sail through to signal a visible presence. Should Beijing grow even more bellicose, Washington should consider expanding the scope of its transits and naval exercises in the region with partners like Japan, Australia, and the Philippines.

Abandoning Taiwan is a misguided idea. Reagan understood that decades ago; conservatives, of all people, should not be the ones to forget.

This piece originally appeared in The National Interest

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