See, e.g., Paul J. Larkin, Jr., Parole: Corpse or Phoenix?, 50 Am. Crim. L. Rev. 303, 315–18 (2013).
 See, e.g., S. Rep. No. 110-397, 110th Cong. 72 (2008) (“According to the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, an estimated 95 percent of all State prisoners will be released….”); Jeremy Travis, But They All Come Back xvii (2005).
 See, e.g., Paul J. Larkin, Jr., Clemency, Parole, Good-Time Credits, and Crowded Prisons: Reconsidering Early Release, 11 Geo. J.L. & Pub. Pol’y 1 (2013).
 See, e.g., the Federal Probation Act, ch. 521, 43 Stat. 1259 (1925) (codified, as amended, at 18 U.S.C. § 3561–66 (2006)); Burns v. United States, 287 U.S. 216, 220–21 (1932); United States v. Murray, 275 U.S. 347, 357–58 (1928); Ronald L. Goldfarb & Linda R. Singer, After Conviction 209, 215, 232–40 (1973).
 Angela Hawken, The Message from Hawaii: HOPE for Probation, Perspectives: J. of the Am. Probation & Parole Ass’n 36, 36 (Summer 2010).
 See Hon. Stephen S. Alm, A New Continuum for Court Supervision, 91 Or. L. Rev. 1191 (2013). A sample of the literature on the HOPE program is collected in an appendix to this article. To avoid overburdening the reader with references, subsequent footnoting will be kept to a minimum. The discussion of the HOPE program in this Legal Memorandum draws on that literature.
 See, e.g., 18 U.S.C. § 3563 (2006) (listing conditions of probation); Knights v. United States, 534 U.S. 112 (2001) (the Fourth Amendment permits suspicion-based searches of probationers).
 See, e.g., 18 U.S.C. §§ 3564(e) & 3465 (2006) (probation revocation).
 That was believed to be particularly true if the judge imposed and suspended a lengthy term of imprisonment in favor of probation. See, e.g., Joan Petersilia, Reforming Probation and Parole in the 21st Century 28 (2002).
 See, e.g., Mark A. R. Kleiman & Kelsey R. Hollander, Reducing Crime by Shrinking the Prison Headcount, 9 Ohio St. J. Crim. L. 89 (2011); Mark A. R. Kleiman, Controlling Drug Use and Crime with Testing, Sanctions, and Treatment, in Drug Addiction and Drug Policy: The Struggle to Control Dependence 168, 171–75 (Philip B. Heymann & William N. Brownsberger eds., 2001).
 The principle that punishment must be imposed swiftly to be effective traces its lineage to Cesare Beccaria, On Crimes and Punishments 55 (2009) (1764). The proposition still has currency today. See, e.g., Fiona Doherty, Indeterminate Sentencing Returns: The Invention of Supervised Release, 88 N.Y.U. L. Rev. 958, 1026–28 (2013).
 See Mark A. R. Kleiman & Angela Hawken, Fixing the Parole System, Issues in Science & Tech. (Summer 2008) (“The drug that is most abused by Hawaii’s felony probationers is methamphetamine, with alcohol (often in combination) second; the opiates are rarely encountered.”), available at http://www.issues.org/24.4/kleiman.html (last visited Jan. 14, 2014).
 See, e.g., Angela Hawken & Mark A. R. Kleiman, Nat’l Inst. of Just., Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii’s HOPE, Doc. No. 229023 34-35, at 35-41 (Dec. 2009) (hereafter Hawken & Kleiman, Evaluating Hawaii’s HOPE), available at http://nicic.gov/Library/024156 (last visited Jan. 14, 2014).
 See, e.g., Kleiman & Hollander, 9 Ohio St. J. Crim. L. at 104.
 See Angela Hawken, Behavioral Triage: A New Model for Identifying and Treating Substance-Abusing Offenders, 3 J. Drug Pol’y Analysis 1, 4 (2010).
 See, e.g., Paul J. Larkin, Jr., Public Choice Theory and Overcriminalization, 36 Harv. J.L. & Pub. Pol’y 715, 764–65 & n.212 (2013); Larkin, 11 Geo. J.L. & Pub. Pol’y at 12–17.
 Not everyone is a fan of the HOPE approach. See Michael Tonry, Legal and Ethical Issues in the Prediction of Recidivism 14 (Minnesota Legal Studies Research Paper No. 13-51, Sept. 11, 2013) available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2329849, criticizing HOPE for focusing on reducing recidivism instead of the factors that lead an offender to wind up in court.
 See Alex Kreit, The Decriminalization Option: Should States Consider Moving from a Criminal to a Civil Drug Court Model?, 2010 U. Chi. Legal F. 299, 333–34 (2010).
 See John Monahan, A Jurisprudence of Risk Assessment, 92 Va. L. Rev. 391, 422 (2006) (38 percent of parties serving a jail sentence were under the influence of alcohol). Some scholars have estimated that alcohol is the most commonly abused drug. See David A. Boyum & Mark A. R. Kleiman, Substance Abuse Policy from a Crime-Control Perspective, in Crime: Public Policies for Crime Control 331, 333 (James Q. Wilson & Joan Petersilia eds., 2002).
 More than a dozen states currently have some form of HOPE program underway. See Pat Nolan, “‘Swift and Certain Probation Sanctions’ Expand to 18 States” (May 8, 2013) (email newsletter on file with author). For examples of those projects, see, e.g., Teresa W. Carns & Stephanie Martin, Anchorage PACE: Probation Accountability with Certain Enforcement, A Preliminary Evaluation of the Anchorage Pilot PACE Project (Sept. 2011), available at http://www.ajc.state.ak.us/reports/pace2011.pdf (last visited Jan, 14, 2014); Virginia Criminal Sentencing Comm’n, Immediate Sanction Probation Pilot Project: Status Update (Mar. 18, 2013), available at http://courts.mi.gov/administration/admin/op/problem-solving-courts/pages/swift-and-sure-sanctions-probation-program.aspx (last visited Jan. 15, 2014).