Currently, Canada and the United States share information and
intelligence, cooperate extensively on law enforcement
issues--particularly border-related crime and terrorist travel--and
work together to thwart potential air and sea threats. Both
countries routinely, and respectively, produce national
intelligence assessments that are frequently published in
unclassified form so that citizens can gain a better appreciation
of their government's perception of current and emerging national
security challenges.
The present landscape, marked by new threats and uncertainties,
presents a challenge--but also an opportunity--for Canada and the
United States. A joint threat assessment, conducted and published
by both countries, could be a powerful protective tool on both
sides of the 49th parallel. It need not--and should not--diminish
sovereign capabilities and capacities on either side; to the
contrary, it could enhance both.
A Strong Foundation
To date, joint Canada-U.S. counterterrorism efforts have focused
largely on the border and, to a lesser extent, on keeping foreign
terrorists out of both countries and countering domestic
extremists. Emphasis on security has in turn largely crowded out
matters of trade and its facilitation. Yet Canada and the United
States are each other's largest and most important trading partner,
with cross-border activity generating more than $1 billion per
day.
Allowing that trade engine to run as smoothly as possible
requires identifying and addressing problems long before they
present themselves at the border, as well as adopting efficient yet
prudent border security measures. A joint threat assessment would
go a long way toward deepening the foundation of mutual
understanding upon which the most productive ways forward, for all
concerned, may be built.
The Scope
What might be the scope of such an assessment? At a minimum, it
should include:
- An evaluation of the level and nature of "homegrown"
radicalization in the two countries as well as overseas;
- An analysis of concerning strategic and tactical developments
and trends in the cyber arena;
- An examination of terrorist, organized crime, and other
significant bad actors' travel to and between Canada and the United
States (to include watch lists);
- An assessment of these actors' exploitation of and threats to
the movement of cargo, mail, and both transnational and domestic
supply chains; and
- An evaluation of vulnerabilities in the energy sector and
infrastructure shared between the two nations, notably the power
grid.
As important as the assessment itself is the manner in which it
is derived and the process by which it is shared. Both countries'
intelligence and law enforcement services should participate
equally. Public hearings could be held in both countries in
furtherance of the assessment's goals. Indeed, the process of
developing the assessment should be as transparent as possible with
publicly available information on how the assessment is being
conducted and by whom.
The final product should be easily available in unclassified
format to citizens in both countries, though this would not
preclude a classified treatment of the issues to be disseminated to
relevant officials and authorities. Whether created and shared
exclusively as an open source document or not, it is important to
note that the joint assessment would not, of itself, render other
existing threat assessments irrelevant.
Finally, if properly conceived and implemented, such measures
could have the added salutary effect of strengthening the bonds of
trust and confidence between and among citizens and with their
government--the very bonds that those with malicious intent seek to
damage, if not break.
Secure, Yet Sovereign
To be clear, a joint threat assessment need not be a precursor,
or tantamount, to common policies. As envisioned, each country
would and should retain discretion to tailor its approach to the
needs and particular circumstances of both its history and the
future it aspires to shape for itself and its people. Transnational
threats may require transnational solutions, but even the newest
and deadliest of these challenges can be addressed without
compromising the essence of what it means to be "Canadian" or
"American" in approach.
James Jay
Carafano, Ph.D., is Assistant Director of the Kathryn and
Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and Senior
Research Fellow for National Security and Homeland Security in the
Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The
Heritage Foundation. Sharon Cardash is the Associate Director,
and Frank Cilluffo is the Director, of the Homeland Security Policy
Institute at The George Washington University.