Morgan Tsvangirai of the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) has been inaugurated as the prime minister of
Zimbabwe, but many remain pessimistic about the country's prospects
for political stability or economic recovery.
If the power-sharing deal brokered by the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) is going to help average Zimbabweans,
the international donor community must engage. In order to engage,
the political arrangement must hold and donors must have strict
assurances that resources will flow transparently and effectively
to arrest the humanitarian catastrophe that is facing the majority
of Zimbabweans.
An Imperfect Arrangement
The power-sharing deal in Zimbabwe is less than perfect and is
not a victory for African democracy, but it could be a step in the
right direction. Almost one year ago, in March 2008, the MDC
participated in a badly flawed electoral process yet still managed
to win control of parliament, and Tsvangirai beat Robert Mugabe in
the presidential race. Tsvangirai was denied an outright victory
and forced into a run-off election with the dictator Mugabe. With
political violence on the rise and food used as a weapon against
his supporters, Tsvangirai pulled out of the presidential run-off
in June 2008. Not even regional leaders who had been reluctant to
criticize Mugabe could accept as legitimate his overwhelming
victory in the sham election. Forced to negotiate for the first
time in his 28 years of power, Mugabe maintained his seat as
president with the help of SADC leaders. In exchange, he agreed to
a power-sharing arrangement signed in September 2008.
The mere fact that the shared government took from September to
February to form shows that Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party remain
disingenuous to the core and callous to the suffering of the
average Zimbabwean. In the end, SADC leaders did not pressure
Mugabe to make necessary concessions but instead painted Tsvangirai
as the impediment to peace. The MDC had little room to maneuver and
was forced to accept a deal that many observers have already deemed
a failure.
The break in Mugabe's complete stranglehold on power comes at a
critical time for Zimbabwe's future. Once known as "the breadbasket
of the continent," the country is ravaged by cholera, with more
than 70,000 confirmed cases and nearly 4,000 deaths. The
unemployment rate is an astonishing 94 percent. HIV /AIDS and food
shortages push down life expectancy to just 34 years, among the
lowest in the world. Of Zimbabwe's 12 million people, 4 million
have left the country, and estimates suggest that the more than 5
million people remaining in the country require emergency food
assistance.
For those policymakers and donors who would be more pragmatic
and focused on transitioning Zimbabwe away from failed-state
status, there is a time-limited window of opportunity to act. As
part of the government, the MDC must now deliver a solution. Prime
Minister Tsvangirai announced his intention to focus on the
country's cholera epidemic and its emergency food needs. The MDC
will have few tools at its disposal without outside donor help.
Channeled properly and transparently, humanitarian assistance could
start to lift the country out of its doomed status, but Zimbabweans
will also need help far beyond just food and health interventions
if the country is ever to recover.
Recommendations for Congress and the
Obama Administration:
- The power-sharing arrangement must be viewed as an imperfect
and temporary solution to a profoundly unstable political and
humanitarian situation. Transparent and internationally monitored
elections must be pursued in the shortest timeframe possible and
should be linked to any foreign assistance.
- Regional leaders must be pressured to act as the guarantor of
the power-sharing deal. They must specifically hold Mugabe to
account for his obligations.
- Given the humanitarian crisis in the country, the MDC should be
encouraged to launch the Zimbabwe Economic Management Assistance
Program, patterned after the donor-mandated transparency initiative
instituted in post-conflict Liberia in 2005.
- Only after transparency and accountability mechanisms are
established in collaboration with the international community,
humanitarian assistance should be accompanied by development
assistance to begin rebuilding Zimbabwe's failed economy. This may
come in the form of a Zimbabwe Economic Recovery Act supplemental
bill passed by Congress as early as this fiscal year.
- Humanitarian and development assistance must be made contingent
on adherence by Mugabe and ZANU-PF to the power-sharing
arrangement, immediate and sustained cessation of intimidation and
abuse of supporters of political opposition and members of the
media and NGO community, and a commitment to unfettered access and
distribution of humanitarian assistance by donors and NGOs. Failure
to adhere to these principles should result in a suspension of
aid.
A Crucial Juncture
Mugabe and his ZANU-PF supporters have been the biggest obstacle
to past efforts to alleviate the suffering in Zimbabwe. Their
recent compromise, however limited in scope, offers a window of
opportunity that must be seized. International donors, including
the U.S., must responsibly engage the new democratic forces within
the government of Zimbabwe. This includes the immediate delivery of
humanitarian assistance and a carefully structured framework for
future development assistance--provided its distribution is not
constrained or conditioned by political demands. Wait-and-see
approaches have not worked in Zimbabwe, and America may be seeing
its last best hope for saving the country.
Thomas M. Woods is Senior
Associate Fellow in African Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center
for Freedom, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis
Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage
Foundation.