As the Olympic Games opened, the tragic and ominous conflict
between Georgia and Russia erupted as well. On Thursday of last
week, South Ossetian separatists, supported by Moscow, escalated
their machine gun and mortar fire attacks against neighboring
Georgian villages. This past Thursday and Friday, Georgia attacked
the separatist capital Tskhinvali with artillery to suppress fire.
Tskhinvali suffered severe damage, thus providing the pretext for
Moscow's long-planned invasion of Georgia.
As Russia responded with overwhelming force, Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin flew from the Beijing Olympics to Vladikavkaz,
taking control of the military operations. Putin sidelined his
successor, Dmitry Medvedev, thereby leaving no doubt as to who is
in charge. The 58th Russian Army of the North Caucasus Military
District rolled into South Ossetia, reinforced by the 76th Airborne
"Pskov" Division. Cossacks from the neighboring Russian territories
moved in to combat the Georgians as well.
Russia is engaged in a classic combined arms operation. The
Black Sea Fleet is blockading Georgia from the sea and likely
preparing a landing, while Russian ballistic missiles and its air
force are attacking Georgian military bases and cities. At the time
of this writing, it looks as if Russian troops will not stop at the
South Ossetian-Georgian border but may press their advantage
further.
Russia's goals for the war with Georgia are far-reaching and
include:
- Expulsion of Georgian troops and termination of Georgian
sovereignty in South Ossetia and Abkhazia;
- "Regime change" by bringing down President Mikheil Saakashvili
and installing a more pro-Russian leadership in Tbilisi;
- Preventing Georgia from joining NATO and sending a strong
message to Ukraine that its insistence on NATO membership may lead
to war and/or its dismemberment;
- Shifting control of the Caucasus, and especially over strategic
energy pipelines, by controlling Georgia; and
- Recreating a 19th-century-style sphere of influence in the
former Soviet Union, by the use of force if necessary.
Post-Soviet Border Revisionism: The Challenge to Europe's Status
Quo
Russian relations with Georgia were the worst among the
post-Soviet states. In addition to fanning the flames of separatism
in South Ossetia since 1990, Russia militarily supported
separatists in Abkhazia (1992-93), which is also a part of Georgian
territory. Russia also had a cantankerous relationship with
then-Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, the former Soviet
foreign minister, whom hardliners in Moscow blamed for the Soviet
withdrawal from Central and Eastern Europe. In the 1990s, there
were two assassination attempts against Shevardnadze, and elements
of the Russian state, such as secret services or military
intelligence, came under suspicion both times.
Russia has long prepared its aggression against Georgia's
pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili, in order to undermine
his rule and prevent Georgia from joining NATO. Despite claims
about oppressed minority status, the separatist South Ossetian
leadership is mostly ethnic Russians, many of whom served in the
KGB, the Soviet secret police, the Russian military, or in the
Soviet communist party.
In recent years, Moscow granted the majority of Abkhazs and
South Ossetians Russian citizenship and moved to establish close
economic and bureaucratic ties with the two separatist republics,
effectively enacting a creeping annexation of both territories.
Use of Russian citizenship to create a "protected" population
residing in a neighboring state to undermine its sovereignty is a
slippery slope that is now leading to a redrawing of the former
Soviet borders.
Chilling Language, Strategic Actions
Aggression against Georgia also sends a strong signal to Ukraine
and Europe. Russia is playing a chess game of offense and
intimidation. Former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin spoke last spring about Russia "dismembering" Ukraine,
another NATO candidate, and detaching the Crimea, a peninsula that
was transferred from Russia to Ukraine in 1954, when both were
integral parts of the Soviet Union.
Today, up to 50 percent of Ukrainian citizens speak Russian as
their first Language, and ethnic Russians comprise approximately
one-fifth of Ukraine's population. With encouragement from Moscow,
these people may be induced to follow South Ossetia and Abkhazia to
Mother Russia's bosom. Yet Ukraine's pro-Western leaders, such as
President Victor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko,
have expressed a desire to join NATO, while pro-Moscow Ukrainian
Party of Regions effectively opposes membership. NATO opponents in
Ukraine are greatly encouraged by Russia's action against
Georgia.
Beyond this, Russia is demonstrating that it can sabotage
American and European Union (EU) declarations about integrating
Commonwealth of Independent States members into Western structures
such as NATO. By attempting to accomplish regime change in Georgia,
Moscow is also trying to gain control of the energy and
transportation corridor¾which connects Central Asia and
Azerbaijan with the Black Sea and ocean routes overseas -- for oil,
gas and other commodities.
A pro-Russian regime in Georgia will also bring the strategic
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Erzurum (Turkey) gas
pipeline under Moscow's control. Such a development would undermine
any options of pro-Western orientation for Azerbaijan and Armenia
along with any chances of resolving their conflict based on
diplomacy and Western-style cooperation.
The West's Hour of Truth
The United States and its European allies must take all
available diplomatic measures to stop Russian aggression. The U.S.
and its allies need to demand that Russia withdraw all its troops
from the territory of Georgia and recognize its territorial
integrity.
Furthermore, the U.S. and Europe need to internationalize the
conflict. Russian desire to be viewed as upholder of international
law needs to be turned against Moscow. The Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the EU and the United
Nations should send other international observers to Georgia, while
mediation efforts to withdraw Russian forces need to be
expedited.
Talks need to start in a neutral forum, such as the OSCE, to
finally settle the South Ossetian matter as well as future
Abkhazian problems. This can be done by granting these territories
full autonomy within the Georgian state, as Tbilisi has repeatedly
suggested.
Beyond this, the United States, its allies, and other countries
need to send a strong signal to Moscow that creating
19th-century-style spheres of influence and redrawing the borders
of the former Soviet Union is a danger to world peace. Moscow's
plan cannot be accomplished without violation of international law
and is likely to result in death and destruction -- a price that
neither the Russian people nor others should pay.
The U.S. and its European allies should communicate to Moscow
that Russia has much to lose -- including hosting the 2014 winter
Olympics in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, membership in the G-8,
and access to Western markets -- if the Georgian aggression is not
stopped.
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is
Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and
International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison
Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and
Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The
Heritage Foundation.