Last December, Vladimir Putin chose Dmitry Medvedev, a first
deputy prime minister, to succeed him as Russia's President. The
March 2 presidential elections will be anti-climactic, as Medvedev
is the only candidate who stands any chance of winning. The
elections have a democratic façade, but voters do not have a
real choice: As in 2004, one voter--Putin himself--will cast the
crucial ballot.
The West must keep a close eye on the Putin-Medvedev tandem.
Although Medvedev has voiced support for some liberal positions,
Putin will continue to wield the real power as Prime Minister. The
status quo in Russia, with authoritarianism at home and an
assertively anti-Western foreign policy, is likely to continue.
A Figurehead Successor?
Putin's trust in Medvedev, who, at 42, is 13 years younger than
the Russian President, springs from a 17-year acquaintance and
collegial relations between the two. Medvedev was the Russian
President's legal counsel, his chief of staff, the Chairman of
Gazprom (Russia's gas monopoly and largest company), and First
Deputy Prime Minister. But he always was subordinate to his mentor
and patron.
After getting the nod in December, Medvedev announced that he
would invite Putin to become Prime Minister, the no. 2 position in
the country. After one week, Putin accepted by saying that he
"would be ready to continue our joint work as prime minister" if
Medvedev was elected. Putin added that the "great support" enjoyed
by Medvedev would help "an administration that will carry out the
same policies that have brought us results for the past eight
years."
Putin's desire to remain in power has led the Kremlin to make
sure that the democratic opposition would not pose a serious
challenge to Medvedev. Liberal politicians Boris Nemtsov and Garry
Kasparov were maneuvered out of running, and the Russian Central
Election Commission disallowed former Prime Minister Mikhail
Kasyanov from entering the race.
Three other candidates are running for the presidency. Two
veteran post-Soviet politicians, Communist Party leader Gennady
Zyuganov and Liberal Democratic Party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky,
are "niche" candidates and are unlikely to get more than 15 percent
to 20 percent of the vote apiece. Andrei Bogdanov, a pro-Kremlin
candidate representing the tiny Russian Democratic Party, is not a
serious contender.
The state's control of the media will ensure that Medvedev
receives lots of publicity. His 73 percent level of popular
support, together with Putin's enduring popularity, shows that the
majority of the Russian people are content with the status quo, in
which the state is allowed to flex its muscle, often in violation
of the letter and spirit of the law and the constitution.
At a press conference on February 14, Putin gave further
indications that he wants to remain at Russia's helm. He made clear
that the Cabinet, led by the Prime Minister, will be dominant in
implementing policy. He stated that "the highest executive power in
the country is in the hands of the Cabinet. There are enough powers
to go around and...[Medvedev] and I will divide them between
ourselves."
According to Putin, the "Cabinet" is in charge of running the
economy, dealing with social problems, and "ensuring our country's
defence and security." In terms of how long he will stay in power,
Putin said, "I formulated the objectives for the development of
Russia from 2010 to 2020," and "if I see that I can realize these
goals in this position [of Prime Minister], then I will work as
long as this is possible."
When asked whether he would hang President Medvedev's portrait
or his own in his office, Putin revealingly answered that, as Prime
Minister, "I do not have to bow to [Medvedev's] portraits." He
commented that his "relationship" with Medvedev in government would
be characterized by the fact that he--Putin--has been "president
for eight years." In other words, Putin might be the Prime Minister
in a President Medvedev administration, but he will be the senior
figure in terms of political capital and the execution of
government policy.
Dmitry Medvedev: A Powerless
Liberal?
Regarding his plans for Russia, in a speech at the Krasnoyarsk
Economic Forum on February 15 that has been widely hailed as
liberal, Medvedev declared that his government platform is founded
on the belief that "freedom is better than no freedom." He stated
that "ensuring that the judicial system is truly independent" is
one of his policy objectives.
Medvedev outlined his reform priorities as the "four eyes":
"Institutions, Infrastructure, Innovation, and Investment."
Regarding institutions, Medvedev proposed to reduce the number of
government employees, to transfer tasks from the state to the
private sector, and to combat corruption. He also stressed the need
to lower the tax burden on businesses as part of his Innovation and
Investment goals.
Nonetheless, many experts and foreign diplomats are unsure as to
how liberal Medvedev really is. Inviting Deep Purple to the Kremlin
for a concert may not be enough. As Chairman of Gazprom's board, he
used a hard-line approach when dealing with countries opposing
Moscow's policies and energy interests. Claiming "free market price
formation," Gazprom cut gas supplies to Ukraine in early 2006,
interrupting the flow of gas to a number of European Union
countries in the middle of winter. Gazprom also cut the supply of
gas to Georgia and threatened to do so against Russian ally Belarus
due to lack of timely payments and because of Minsk's refusal to
yield control of its national gas company.
Gazprom's appetite for expansion in different sectors of the
Russian economy led German Gref, then Russian Economic Development
Minister, to complain that "if all Gazprom's assets, which are
already worth over $300 billion...are used across all economic
sectors, we will find ourselves with the 19th century-style
monopolistic state capitalism." Medvedev seems to back Putin's
support for the "national champions," giant state-controlled
companies that have a decisive influence in the national
economy.
Conclusion
The United States and its allies will need to watch the
Putin-Medvedev alliance carefully. Putin believes that if Medvedev
is viewed as a more liberal, independent force, the West will allow
Russian companies to expand their investments in Europe and other
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
countries.
However, unless there are clear signs that President Medvedev
takes charge of Russia's defense and foreign policies, it would be
safe to assume that Putin and the siloviki (the top power
brokers from Russia's security services and the military) will
continue business as usual. The Putin loyalists from the
siloviki group also control the majority of Russia's
gigantic state-owned companies
Future Russian policies are likely to include a confrontational
approach on Kosovo, opposition to missile defense deployment in
Poland, abrogation of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, a
heavy-handed approach to Ukraine and Georgia, and an anti-Western
propaganda campaign at home. Both the Bush Administration and its
successor will have their hands full dealing with a Russia that
will remain under Vladimir Putin's control for years to come.
Ariel Cohen,
Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian
Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Lajos Szaszdi, Ph.D.,
contributed to the production of this paper.