On September 30, Ukrainians flocked to vote in the early
parliamentary elections. The Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe found the voting to be free and fair, despite
fears of fraud. To strengthen Ukraine's ties to the West and
increase opportunities for its citizens, the United States must
assist the country's transition to the rules-based market
system--especially its efforts to combat corruption.
From a Crisis to Elections
The decision to hold early elections was a compromise between
President Viktor Yushchenko, the leader of the Our Ukraine-Self
Defense Bloc (known by its Ukrainian acronym NUNS), and Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who heads the Party of Regions. Under
the Ukrainian constitution, if a single political party does not
win a majority of the seats in the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament), a
coalition must be shaped to form the Cabinet of Ministers.
The pro-Western "Orange Coalition" led the country's democratic
revolution in 2004-2005. Headed by Yushchenko and the former Prime
Minister Yulia Timoshenko and her BYuT bloc, the coalition was
unable to successfully form a parliamentary majority following the
March 2006 elections. As the result, Oleksandr Moroz, leader of the
Socialist Party of Ukraine, who initially supported the Orange
forces, defected to the Yanukovich camp, forming the Anti-Crisis
Coalition with the Party of Regions and the Communist Party of
Ukraine. Yanukovich then proceeded to gnaw on Yushchenko's
presidential powers, painting the President into a corner and
triggering the recent elections.
Yulia's Surprise
The election results are a sign of increased political
competition and a tribute to Ukraine's democratic development. The
"orange" blocs, Tymoshenko's BYuT and Yushchenko's NUNS, both
received more support than pre-election polls anticipated. BYuT's
performance was particularly surprising, receiving more than 30
percent of the popular vote, up nearly 10 percent from the March
2006 elections. Tymoshenko's increased popularity, particularly in
the Central and Eastern regions, which previously supported
Yanukovych, will not only give her legitimacy as Prime Minister,
but also place her in an excellent position for the 2009
presidential elections. Too close of an outcome may open the door
for yet another political crisis, particularly if Yanukovych acts
on his threats to force new elections. For all preliminary results
please see Table 1.
The necessity to form a new coalition has lead Yushchenko to
negotiate once again with former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko,
who outperformed Yushchenko's Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense by
2 to 1. Relations between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have been
strained since Tymoshenko, who served as Prime Minister after the
Orange Revolution, was fired after being accused of mishandling the
economy. Nevertheless, Tymoshenko may be returning as Prime
Minister after an impressive electoral performance in the September
30 elections. While some have predicted a Yushchenko-Yanukovich
coalition, only 6 percent of Ukrainians polled support such an
outcome.
U.S. Should Encourage Reform
With pro-democracy forces returning to power in the Rada, it is
hoped that the next Cabinet can address several key issues. Ukraine
has experienced significant political turmoil since the Orange
Revolution, often leaving the government paralyzed and unable to
address important policy issues. In particular, the Ukrainian
parliament should consider the following constitutional reforms in
order to strengthen the political system and prevent further
institutional crises:
- Clearly defined delineation of power between the President and
Prime Minister;
- Elimination of overlap in duties among various ministers;
- A shorter time limit for forming a government and approving the
candidacy of the Prime Minister;
- Well-defined grounds and procedures for dissolving the Rada by
the President; and
- A more accountable and precise organizational chart for "power"
ministers, which include those for law enforcement, interior,
security services, and defense.
Additionally, Ukrainians should also hope for economic reforms
in line with law-based market principles. On the Party of Regions'
watch, the Ukrainian economy suffered from price controls on some
commodities and excessive and arbitrary regulations for sales of
crucial commodities such as natural gas and grain.
Tymoshenko's prior performance as Prime Minister drew heavy
criticism from both inside and outside the country, but her
surprising achievement in the recent elections may give local and
foreign investors hope for a liberalized, investment-friendly
economy.
While talk of full NATO and EU membership remains premature, it
is expected that Washington will continue to support Ukraine's
Euro-Atlantic agenda. More hands-on engagement from the EU would be
welcome. Although the country remains highly divided on the key
issue of NATO membership, it is hoped that the renewed power of the
pro-Western forces will break the country's political deadlock and
allow the government to make significant strides in foreign policy,
including Ukraine's final negotiations for WTO membership.
Finally, much of the new coalition's success will be determined
by its commitment to actively pursuing anti-corruption reforms.
Unfortunately, some of Yanukovich's close Cabinet associates were
high on the corruption "A-list." President Yushchenko has also
failed to fulfill his campaign promise to "put the bandits in
jail." Some of his supporters were uncomfortably close to the
highly lucrative and opaque oil and gas trade. Corruption has hurt
Ukraine's energy security and prevented completion of key
pipelines, such as Odessa-Brody-Gdansk.
The murder of journalist Georgiy Gongadze, a catalyst in the
Orange Revolution, remains unsolved, as has the related "suicide"
of Kuchma's former Interior Minister, Yuri Kravchenko. Ukraine's
powerful oligarchs continue to protect their financial interests by
funding all political parties. Without full commitment to fighting
corruption--an essential element of its democratic and economic
future--Ukraine may remain in a limbo of post-communist
transition.
Conclusion
The United States should congratulate the Ukrainian people on
their democratic breakthrough, an increasingly rare event in the
former Soviet bloc. The Bush Administration should provide
technical assistance to a political system that suffers from
entrenched, high-level corruption. It is in both the Ukrainian and
American interests that transparency and executive competence play
an essential role in the future of democratic governance in
Ukraine.
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is
Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and
International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison
Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and
Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The
Heritage Foundation. Carla Bock, an intern at Heritage, contributed
in producing this article.