By planting the Russian flag on the seabed under the North Pole
and claiming a sector of the continental shelf the size of Western
Europe (see Map 1), Moscow has created a new source of
international tension, seemingly out of the blue. Geopolitics and
geo-economics are driving Moscow's latest moves. Geologists believe
that a quarter of the world's oil and gas--billions of barrels and
trillions of cubic feet, respectively--may be located on the Arctic
continental shelf and possibly under the polar cap. The Arctic
frontier also harbors precious ferrous and non-ferrous metals, as
well as diamonds. At today's prices, these riches may be worth
hundreds of billions of dollars. And if the ice caps melt and
shrink, not only will these resources will be more accessible than
they are today, but a new sea route along the northern coast of
Eurasia may be open to reach them. Russia's attempted grab is a
cause for concern. The U.S. must engage its allies--especially
Canada and the Nordic countries--to formulate a strong
response.
A Return to Greatness?
Russia's claim has a political dimension. The exploration and
exploitation of polar petroleum and other resources may be the kind
of opportunity that allows Russia to become what President Putin
has termed "an energy superpower."
In 2001, Russia filed a claim to expand the continental shelf
with the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf
under the Law of the Sea Treaty (LOST), to which it is a party. In
response, the commission refused to accept or reject the Russian
claim and demanded more study. Russia is planning to resubmit the
claim and expects an answer by 2010.
Russia's claims are literally on thin ice. Moscow is extending
its claim to the Arctic Ocean seabed based on its control of the
Lomonosov Ridge and the Mendeleev Ridge, two underwater geological
structures that jut into the ocean from the Russian continental
shelf. Those ridges, however, do not extend far enough to justify
Moscow's claims beyond its 200-mile economic zone, and other
countries also claim control of the same area in the Arctic.
Back to Jingoism
This latest move by Moscow is also a chilling throwback to the
attempts during the 1930s to conquer the Arctic during the years
when the Soviet Union was seized by fear and hatred. Stalin and his
henchmen executed "enemies of the people" by the hundreds of
thousands, after mock trials, in the basements of the Lubyanka
secret police headquarters and in unnamed killing sites in the
woods. Those not yet arrested were forced to applaud the "heroes of
the Arctic"--pilots, sailors, and explorers--in a macabre
celebration of Stalinist tyranny. To the regime's critics, today's
expedition is a chilling reminder of the brutal era when millions
of Gulag prisoners were sent to the frozen expanses to build
senseless mega-projects for the power-mad dictator.
Today's Russian rhetoric is reminiscent of the triumphant
totalitarianism of the 1930s and the mindset of the Cold War. The
leader of the Arctic expedition, Artur Chilingarov, Deputy Chairman
of the Russian Duma, proclaimed, "The Arctic is ours and we should
manifest our presence." Russia's Arctic and Antarctic Institute
declared, "This is like placing a flag on the moon"--conveniently
forgetting that the U.S. never claimed the moon as its territory.
Andrei Kokoshin, chair of a parliamentary committee on the
ex-Soviet region, said that Russia "will have to actively defend
its interests in the Arctic" and called for the reinforcement of
Russia's Northern Fleet and border guard units, as well as building
airfields to "ensure full control." Vladimir Putin weighed in
during a speech on a Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker earlier
this year, urging greater efforts to secure Russia's "strategic,
economic, scientific and defense interests" in the Arctic.
Blocking Russia's Claim
The U.S. and its allies are not interested in a new Cold
War in the Arctic. А crisis over Russian claims in the Arctic
is avoidable if Russia is prepared to behave in a more civilized
manner. If Moscow suggests exploring the Arctic's wealth in a
cooperative fashion--in partnership with the U.S. and other
countries--this could become a productive project that furthers
international cooperation. However, Moscow's current rush to
dominate the Arctic Ocean and everything under it indicates that
greed and aggression motivate the new Russian polar bear.
Legal and diplomatic action is a necessary response. The U.S.
State Department has expressed its skepticism regarding the
planting of the Russian flag and stated that the act does not have
any legal effect. Canada has voiced similar objections.To block
Russia's grab, the U.S. should encourage its friends and
allies--especially Canada, Denmark, and Norway--to pursue their own
claims with the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the
Continental Shelf. While the U.S. has not ratified LOST, other
Arctic countries, including Norway and Denmark, have filed claims
with the Commission in opposition to Russia's claims. The U.S.
should also encourage Canada to coordinate a possible claim through
the International Justice Court in The Hague against the Russian
grab, which the U.S. may join.
Russia's decision to take an aggressive stand has left the U.S.,
Canada, and the Nordic countries little choice but to forge a
cooperative High North strategy and invite other friendly
countries, such as Great Britain, to help build a Western presence
in the Arctic. This will probably have to include a fleet of modern
icebreakers, submersibles, geophysics/seismic vessels, and polar
aircraft. There is too much at stake to leave the Arctic to the
Russian bear.
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is
Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and
International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison
Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn
and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The
Heritage Foundation.