Congress and the
White House are at odds over ways to reduce illegal immigration
into the United States. This month, the House of Representatives
approved a measure that would tighten security and extend a fence
along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexican border. President Bush has
proposed a guest worker program to regulate what he sees as an
unstoppable flow of alien job seekers.
Largely ignored is
the need for a foreign policy component. Latin America is the
primary source of undocumented migrants entering the United States
and, with few exceptions, the conditions that push people out are
not getting better. Unless policymakers pay attention, efforts to
secure borders and regulate temporary workers could be too little,
too late.
To solve them,
U.S. lawmakers sometimes find it easier to break big problems into
manageable chunks. That's why Republicans in the House of
Representatives have for now proposed expanded controls to reduce
flow at the borders and punitive measures against employers who
hire undocumented workers.
Reducing the flow
with technology and stronger law enforcement responds to the
majority of citizens' concerns-not just in border states, where
more than a half a million aliens transited illegally last year,
but also in other parts of the country where undocumented workers
seek employment and live in marginal, often crime-ridden
neighborhoods.
Few doubt that
better, smarter measures are needed to shield the United States
against terrorists and transnational criminals while disrupting
tourism and trade as little as possible. But even a fence and
doubling the number of border agents won't keep out determined
migrants seeking to escape starvation back home. They will find
other ways.
A guest worker
program will direct many toward legal entry points, allow them to
come and go, and, by eliminating existing red tape in the
employment process, encourage more migrant workers and their
American bosses to pay taxes. Moreover, legal guests will toil in
the light of day, improving their social integration.
Already U.S.
citizens bear the cost of immigration enforcement services provided
by the federal government, estimated at about $10 billion in 2002
by the Center for Immigration Studies. These are in addition to
state and local expenditures on schools, emergency medical care,
and criminal justice not covered by federal programs. Promoting
legal employment would offer some relief.
But even stronger
borders, better local-state-federal law enforcement coordination,
and a user-friendly guest worker program will not stanch the flow
if source countries do not implement deep political, economic, and
social reforms. With few exceptions, such as Chile, Uruguay, and
some islands in the Caribbean, America's hemispheric neighbors to
the south are closed societies, plagued by monopolistic
practices.
Despite the
prevalence of elections and the adoption of some market reforms,
Latin America lags behind industrial nations in significant ways.
Most of the region's public schools do not educate youth for the
modern workplace. Facilities are overcrowded and lack textbooks,
and 40 percent of the region's students reportedly never progress
beyond grade school. The rural poor-the most likely to emigrate-are
least likely to attend at any level.
The Population
Reference Bureau claims that by 2025, Latin America's population
will rise from 520 million to 702 million. Neither economic growth
nor job creation is likely to keep up with the number of new
entrants in the labor market. Not surprisingly, Latin America
compares to Sub-Saharan Africa in overall crime.
The rise of
leftist populism in Venezuela, Bolivia, and even Ecuador has
divided citizens and threatens prospects for near-term prosperity
in the Andean region by bringing back capricious, personalistic
rule and social spending designed to placate the poor without
liberating them from the complex regulations, lack of credit, and
weak property rights that keep them that way.
Despite improving
cooperation in law enforcement, Mexico remains a leading source of
undocumented migrants. It is in the middle of a baby boom bubble in
which about a million new workers join the labor force each year.
Yet, on average, only about 500,000 new jobs have been created in
each of the last five years.
President Vicente
Fox, the first opposition party president in 71 years of
single-party dominance, did much to open Mexico's economy but was
thwarted by a divided congress in privatizing sluggish monopolies,
improving access to credit, and curbing corruption. Next July,
voters might replace him with the populist former Mexico City mayor
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who promises more social
spending and a retreat from free markets-a recipe for growing
poverty and worker flight.
Mexico is also a
transit country for migrants from Central America. Lagging economic
reforms in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua keep new small
businesses from flourishing, contributing to high unemployment and
crime. In both Mexico and Central America, free trade with the
United States helps, but trade is a door that opens only when local
governments promote and protect a competitive marketplace.
To alleviate
conditions that cause migrants to leave home in the first place,
the United States must adopt a serious foreign policy to encourage
neighboring states in Latin America to change from "monopoly" to
"opportunity" societies. To date, U.S. diplomacy and assistance are
largely an amalgam of counternarcotics assistance, trade
agreements, and "feel-good" aid programs.
Rather, U.S.-Latin
America policy must broadly foster deep democratic reforms that put
government and political parties in the hands of constituents
instead of charismatic leaders, push for a more open competitive
marketplace that helps small businesses to prosper instead of
family and state monopolies, and bring about a climate more
respectful of individual rights instead of sustaining autocracies
where liberties are substituted with entitlements.
Tighter border
security and a guest worker program may help the United States
reduce the overflow of undocumented migrants pouring over our
borders today. But five years from now, U.S policymakers will
discover that it was not enough to stem the tide. A focused foreign
policy is necessary to help Latin America become more free and
competitive.
Stephen
Johnson is Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America in the
Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy of the Kathryn
and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The
Heritage Foundation.