Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's installation as
Iran's new president on August 6 is a triumph for Iran's
hardliners, who now control all the important levers of power after
thwarting the tentative reform efforts of outgoing President
Mohammad Khatami. A dedicated revolutionary who rose up through the
ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ahmadinejad
will likely put a more assertive and uncompromising face on Iran's
foreign policy. Now that Iran's moderates have been purged from the
government, it is time for the Bush Administration to lead an
international effort to contain the growing threat of Iran and
ultimately to effect regime change.
Back to the
Future. Ahmadinejad is a hardcore true believer in
Ayatollah Khomeini's radical Islamic ideology and seeks to restore
the "purity of the revolution." Significantly, one of his first
acts after winning Iran's quasi-election was to visit Khomeini's
grave to underscore his devotion. The new president has dismissed
widespread criticism of the flawed elections, saying, "Iran did not
carry out its revolution for the sake of democracy."
Ahmadinejad, now 49, was a leader of the
radical student group that seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in
1979, although there is little evidence that he participated in
that act of terrorism. He later joined the IRGC and served as an
officer during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. The IRGC, the regime's
praetorian guard, helped export Iran's Islamic revolution by
training and supporting a wide variety of foreign terrorist groups,
including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The IRGC
was also involved in the assassinations of Iranian dissidents,
including the 1989 murders of three Kurdish opposition leaders in
Austria. According to a state prosecutor in Vienna, Ahmadinejad may
be implicated in the three murders.
Iran-U.S. relations will likely
deteriorate during Ahmadinejad's presidency. He has lambasted the
U.S. as "a failing power" and a threat to the Muslim world. He is
firmly committed to Iran's nuclear program and has criticized
Iran's negotiators for making too many concessions to the EU3
(Britain, France, and Germany) in talks about Iran's nuclear
program. On August 8, Iran resumed uranium conversion activities, a
clear violation of its November 2004 agreement with the EU3 that
has put Tehran on a collision course with the EU and the United
States.
Pushing Change
in Iran. The Bush Administration has correctly aligned the
U.S. with the Iranian people in their efforts to build a true
democracy, but it has held back from a policy of regime change,
partly in deference to the EU3 negotiations with Iran about its
nuclear program. However, now that it is clear that Iran has
reneged on its promises to the EU3, the U.S. should:
- Insist that the
EU3 hold firm on their demand that Iran permanently abandon its
uranium enrichment efforts and impose sanctions if Iran
refuses. The U.S. and its allies should call for the U.N.
Security Council to impose economic sanctions on Iran for its
failure to maintain adequate safeguards against diversion of its
civilian nuclear program to weapons purposes. Because China and
Russia will seek to dilute or block sanctions due to their major
trade and military ties to Iran, the Bush Administration also needs
to push the EU and Japan to impose sanctions outside the U.N.
framework, including the denial of loans and foreign
investment.
- Lead an
international effort to contain Iran. The resurgence of
Iran's hardliners, Iran's continued support for terrorism, and the
prospective emergence of a nuclear Iran pose threats to many
countries. The United States should maintain a strong naval and air
presence in the Persian Gulf to deter Iran and strengthen military
cooperation with the Gulf States, which have been denigrated by
Ahmadinejad as "filling stations." Washington should also work with
the Iraqi government to warn Iran against supporting Iraqi radicals
such as Moktada Sadr. Until Iran stops supporting terrorism and
halts its nuclear weapons program, Washington should cooperate with
other countries to deny Iran loans from international financial
institutions such as the World Bank and deny Iran the funding for a
proposed natural gas pipeline to India,via Pakistan.
- Support the
establishment of a genuine democracy in Iran. Washington
should discreetly aid all Iranian groups that support democracy and
reject terrorism, either through direct grants or indirectly
through nongovernmental organizations. The Iran Freedom and Support
Act of 2005 (H.R. 282 and S. 333) would authorize such aid and
tighten U.S. economic sanctions on Iran. Washington should also
work to defeat the regime's suppression of opposition newspapers,
Internet blogs, and other media by increasing Farsi broadcasts by
the Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and other information
sources. The free flow of information is an important precursor to
the free flow of political ideas. The Iranian people need access to
information about the activities of dissidents such as imprisoned
journalist Akbar Ganji, now on a hunger strike, and the simmering
discontent that triggered recent Kurdish riots. Such broadcasts
would help underscore to the Iranian people the heavy price that
they are forced to pay by their government.
- Keep the
military option on the table. If Iran continues to export
terrorism and seeks to obtain nuclear weapons, Washington should
not rule out military strikes to destroy its nuclear facilities.
Congress should fully fund the President's request for the Robust
Nuclear Earth Penetrator and the modern pit facility to enhance
U.S. capability to destroy Iran's buried facilities.
Conclusion. Former President Khatami has
warned about the potentially dangerous inclinations of the incoming
government: "I pray to God that our friends would not make a
mistake and misinterpret the people's choice as their intention to
return to extremism." The United States and its allies must make
clear that Iran's hardliners will be forced to pay a prohibitively
high economic, political, diplomatic, and possibly military cost if
they continue to seek nuclear weapons or export terrorism and
subversion to their neighbors.
James Phillips is Research Fellow in
Middle Eastern Studies in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for
Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom
Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage
Foundation.