April 20, 2005 | WebMemo on National Security and Defense
Every four years, the Department of Defense, as required by law, conducts a review of its forces, resources, and programs and presents the findings of this Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) to the President and Congress. The QDR provides a basic strategy for addressing critical issues like budget and acquisition priorities, emerging threats, and Pentagon capabilities for the next 20 years. To help guide its strategic thinking during this QDR, the Department of Defense is focusing on four different threats that future military forces must be able to address. This threat matrix reflects Secretary Rumsfeld's intent to shift from a "threats-based" force to a "capabilities-based" force that can meet a range of national security requirements. At a recent conference at The Heritage Foundation, national security and military experts analyzed how the threat matrix approach differs from previous QDRs and whether it is adequate this time around.
The 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review is unique in that it will be accomplished under four unusual conditions: It is the first wartime QDR; it is the first QDR done by a Secretary of Defense who has already led one before; this QDR is the first undertaken when budgets are consistently growing; and this is the first QDR in the post-9/11 environment.
This QDR is based on a new threat matrix. The threats are different kinds of "changing security environments," and the matrix is designed to drive capabilities-based planning. It reflects the reality that conventional warfare is on the decline while the likelihood of unconventional warfare is on the rise. The matrix, as defined by the March 2005 National Defense Strategy, contains these threat components:
The Secretary of Defense has also identified four "core problems," closely related to the threat matrix, that the U.S. must be able to address:
One panelist explained that, as these problems are addressed, the U.S. military may evolve in three separate directions: the further development of a high-tech, experimental strike force; an increase in person-power intensive constabulary forces; and a small, residual expeditionary force able to effect regime change. If this happens, war fighting-the primary mission of the armed forces for the last 60 years-will end up only a small part of the overall defense posture. How the defense establishment would react to this fundamental change, as well as changes in the degree of U.S. military superiority and power transitions in the global system, will be important.
The interaction of all these factors as transformation progresses and the QDR is underway is extremely complex. As the QDR will determine the way the Pentagon thinks about strategy for the near future, some aspects of the threat matrix should still be considered a "work in progress," said the panelists, and subject to further consideration:
Though complex, the relationship between the threat matrix and the QDR, said the panelists, has some clear aspects:
For more information and analysis of the Quadrennial Defense Review, see Heritage Foundation WebMemo No. 682, "The 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review: The View from the Pentagon;" Heritage Foundation Executive Memorandum No. 954, "Principles for the Next Quadrennial Defense Review;" and Heritage Foundation Lecture No. 864, "The Quadrennial Defense Review: Some Guiding Principles."
Jack Spencer is the Senior Policy Analyst in Defense and National Security in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation. Kathy Gudgel, Research Assistant in Defense and National Security, contributed to this piece. This WebMemo is based on presentations given at "The 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review: Strategy and Threats, a public event held at The Heritage Foundation on Thursday, March 17, 2005.
 The graphical representation of this threat matrix, which is useful to understanding the panelists comments, can be found at several Department of Defense websites in powerpoint presentations. For example, see the presentation posted by the Air War College of Arthur K. Cebrowski, " Trends in Security Cooperation," Office of Force Transformation, Department of Defense, slide 6.