February 3, 2005 | Executive Summary on Federal Budget
Federal spending grew to $20,705 per household in 2004-the highest level since World War II and an increase of $3,000 per household over the average spending during the 1990s. After passage of the omnibus spending bill, discretionary spending was projected to increase 8.7 percent in 2005.
This is worrisome enough, but it pales in comparison to the fiscal nightmare of the Medicare prescription drug benefit, which increased the government's unfunded obligations by $8.1 trillion over the next 75 years.
One reason for this spending growth is that the budget process does not force lawmakers to recognize the long-term costs of policy choices. The budget process should be changed to include a measure of the federal government's long-term liabilities and obligations-especially those of entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. This would force Congress to acknowledge the fiscal threat that these obligations pose and begin to deal with them.
Today's taxpayers are paying the cost of entitlement obligations entered into by lawmakers many years ago. Total "mandatory" spending now constitutes 54.3 percent of total federal spending, most of which is devoted to entitlement programs, which already consume 6.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)-8.2 percent when net interest is included-and will require far more resources in the future.
By 2050, spending for Social Security and Medicare is expected to increase sharply to nearly 25 percent of federal spending as baby boomers begin to retire, and total federal spending could consume nearly one-third of the national economy. According to David Walker, Comptroller General of the United States, the debt from these and other programs translates to a burden of $350,000 for every worker in America. As Walker notes:
Without reform, known demographic trends, rising health care costs, and projected growth in federal spending for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will result in massive fiscal pressures that, if not effectively addressed, could cripple the economy, threaten our national security, and adversely affect the quality of life of Americans in the future.
Fixing a Dysfunctional Process
In the private sector, future obligations require regular payments or are at least disclosed on a company's annual balance sheet, but because the federal budget process excludes any measure of entitlement obligations and does not require that money be set aside to finance them, lawmakers continue to ignore the harsh fiscal reality that entitlements impose.
In fact, under the current budget process, Members of Congress and the President have every incentive to increase future commitments for these programs and no incentive to provide for their payment. The recent Medicare drug bill is an excellent example of this dysfunctional process. The amount budgeted for the Medicare prescription drug benefit over the next 10 years was only the tip of the iceberg. Its real cost is an $8.1 trillion increase in unfunded entitlement obligations.
The private sector, by contrast, has a regimented process that requires a business to record and report its obligations on its financial statements each year as they are incurred, even if these obligations are to be paid in the future. This gives key decision makers such as shareholders, investors, and oversight entities a more complete and accurate assessment of a business's financial condition.
Amending the federal budget process to include this principle of planning for future obligations would:
Congress should include a formal measure of liabilities and obligations in the budget process to present a realistic assessment of the huge fiscal challenges confronting the nation. While this action alone would not be a panacea for fiscal responsibility, entitlement reform, or the preservation of pro-growth tax policies, Congress needs a strong warning mechanism as it makes budget and policy decisions.
The ultimate success of such a change will depend on other steps taken to control the federal budget and whether Congress reacts in a wise way. One thing is clear, however: The United States cannot afford to ignore the real threat to its fiscal health. A budget process that would force Congress to take action on entitlements now is vital to protecting future generations from inheriting a debt that they cannot afford.
Alison Acosta Fraser is Director of the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation.