The
Socialist Party's victory in the recent Spanish general election
has sent shockwaves throughout Europe and the United States. The
Socialists' rise to power has caused concern in Washington, with
officials in the Bush Administration fearing the end of the highly
successful Spanish-American alliance. The election results are not
only transforming the political landscape in Madrid, but have also
shifted the balance of power within the European Union (EU) back
toward "Old Europe," led by Paris and Berlin.
- In light of the developments in Madrid,
regarding Spain's threat to withdraw its forces from Iraq, the Bush
Administration must make a concerted effort to shore up the
"coalition of the willing" in Europe.
- Secretary of State Colin Powell and
National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice should engage in a
diplomatic offensive to consolidate support in Europe for the
U.S.-led coalition in Iraq and for the war on terrorism.
- The White House should host a summit of
European allies to discuss the future of Iraq.
- Washington and London must increase their
political and strategic ties with "New Europe," effectively
maintaining the balance of power on the continent.
- The Madrid bombings highlight the need for
more effective bilateral intelligence-sharing between Washington
and European capitals, as well as closer coordination between the
U.S. and the EU.
- Despite differences of opinion about Iraq,
the Bush Administration must make every effort to ensure that Spain
does not drop out of the U.S.-led war on terrorism. American and
Spanish intelligence agencies and special forces should combine
their efforts to destroy the terrorist network responsible for the
Madrid attacks.
- Washington should call for the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to take command of coalition
forces in Iraq after the handover of power on June 30. This should
reduce the burden on U.S. forces and result in greater levels of
European participation in the coalition.
The Impact of the Spanish Elections
The
March 11 bombings in Madrid--which claimed the lives of 190
people--decisively influenced the democratic process in one of
Europe's largest nations. For the first time in modern European
history, terrorists have influenced the result of a major election.
The ruling Popular Party was widely expected to be returned to
power, but the Madrid bombings shattered their electoral hopes.
When al-Qaeda emerged as the primary suspect, Spanish voters
flocked to the opposition Socialists. Blaming Madrid's links with
the United States, many Spaniards rejected the Popular Party and
instead swept to power a political movement that heavily criticized
the Bush White House.
Until recently, Spain was at the forefront
of the war on terrorism, both in Europe and around the globe. Along
with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, outgoing Spanish Prime
Minister Jose Maria Aznar had been a highly visible supporter of
the U.S-led war on terrorism--including American efforts in
Iraq--and was a partner in the historic Azores summit on the eve of
war against Saddam Hussein. It is no accident that Australia and
Spain, two of America's most stalwart allies in the post-September
11 era, have since suffered massive terrorist attacks. The
increasingly successful anti-terrorism coalition was targeted in
both cases.
The
Spanish election results have dramatically altered the relationship
between Washington and Madrid. While Spain will continue to be an
important partner of the United States, it may no longer be viewed
as a close ally. Nevertheless, the Bush Administration must do
everything in its power to help ensure that Spain does not drop out
of the U.S.-led war on terrorism. If it does, the terrorists will
have won at the polls.
The Madrid Bombings: A Dangerous Precedent
for Europe
Almost certainly, the Madrid bombings were
the work of al-Qaeda or one of its affiliates. The 10 nearly simultaneous
bombings in Madrid are reminiscent of al-Qaeda bombings in Africa,
the United States, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Al-Qaeda cells
have been active in Spain for several years and Spanish authorities
have made dozens of arrests since September 11, 2001.
While no firm conclusions can be drawn at
this stage, the possibility of collaboration between a radical
faction of ETA --a Basque separatist group--and
al-Qaeda cannot be excluded. The bombings bore the hallmarks of
both traditional European terrorist attacks (ETA has frequently
used Titadine, a dynamite-like explosive) and the more spectacular
mass-casualty atrocities carried out by al-Qaeda. This link--if
confirmed--is an extremely dangerous development. An alliance of
European terrorists and Islamic militants would necessitate
fundamentally rethinking the strategy of the war on terrorism.
The
Madrid bombings could signify a shift in al-Qaeda strategy toward
dividing the U.S. from Europe. Regrettably, the lackluster response
of the newly elected Spanish government will only em-bolden the
terrorists and encourage more attacks. Al-Qaeda will likely attempt
further bomb attacks in Europe during the coming months. Key
targets could include London, Rome, and Warsaw, as well as the
capitals of smaller U.S. allies, such as Denmark, Portugal, and the
Netherlands. Police chiefs in London are already warning that a
terrorist attack on Europe's largest city is "inevitable."
Voters across Europe go to the polls in
June to elect Members of the European Parliament. The British,
Hungarian, Polish, and Danish elections in 2005 could also be major
flashpoints, as could the Portuguese and Italian elections in
2006.
Zapatero's Disappointing Start
Jose
Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, Spain's outspoken prime minister-elect,
has wasted no time in firing salvoes at President George W. Bush
and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. In an inflammatory interview
with a Spanish radio station, Zapatero described the war in
Iraq--and the subsequent occupation--as "a disaster." Spain's new
leader urged the U.S. and British leaders to engage in
"self-criticism" over their decision to remove Saddam Hussein from
power. He also accused President Bush and Prime Minister Blair of
lying to the world in order to justify attacking Iraq. Zapatero's comments
were echoed by European Commission President Romano Prodi, who
condemned the U.S. strategy in Iraq as a failure that had led to
international terrorism becoming "infinitely more powerful."
These extremely tactless remarks do not
bode well for Spain's future relations with the United States and
Great Britain. Prime Minister-elect Zapatero will need to hone his
diplomatic skills and reduce his anti-American rhetoric if he is to
avoid alienating the U.S. and the U.K. At a stroke, the prime
minister-elect managed to undo eight years of skillfully woven
diplomacy which had transformed Spain from a minor European player
into a major presence on the world stage.
Zapatero's outbursts are disturbingly
similar to the anti-American statements made by members of German
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's government during the 2002 German
election campaign. The hardline stance regarding Iraq that was
taken by the German socialist government helped to poison relations
between Washington and Berlin. Mr. Zapatero should avoid taking
Spain down this same path.
An Addition to the Franco-German Axis
Prime Minister-elect Zapatero has already
indicated that he will shift Spanish foreign policy away from
Washington and London, and move Spain closer to an alliance with
France and Germany. He scorns the Atlanticist approach of his
predecessor. He has called for a reversal of Madrid's opposition to
the European Constitution and has expressed a desire to mend
relations with France, which had been strained under outgoing Prime
Minister Aznar. He regards France as "a very important ally" and
stresses that "we want to make sure that the Franco-German axis
works again."
Zapatero's stated foreign policy priority is "to restore
magnificent relations with France, Germany and all the countries of
the European Union."
Strategically, Spain's defection to the
Franco-German axis is a significant blow to the United States.
However, when possible, Washington should continue to work with
Madrid on issues of common interest. Afghanistan is a prime
example. Prime Minister-elect Zapatero has already agreed to double
the number of Spanish troops participating in the International
Security Assistance Force in Kabul. Hopefully, Zapatero--despite his
political inexperience and fiery rhetoric--will follow the example
of Schroeder's government by seeking reconciliation with
Washington, while eschewing the dogmatic, confrontational approach
of his counterpart, French President Jacques Chirac. Indeed, Berlin
has privately urged the incoming Spanish government to tone down
its anti-U.S. language.
The American Alliance with "New
Europe"
At
the same time, the Bush Administration should redouble its efforts
to shore up its close alliance with the countries of "New Europe."
These 10 central and eastern European nations will enter the
European Union in May: Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus, and Malta. Nearly
all of these nations supported the United States' action in Iraq,
and many have contributed soldiers to the coalition. French
President Chirac condemned these countries as "infantile" for their
support for President Bush, resulting in a furious backlash against
France.
Together with Great Britain, Italy,
Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland, and the other nations of New
Europe, the United States must work to strengthen the U.S.-led
coalition. Washington should call for a flexible, dynamic Europe
that maintains the principle of national sovereignty at its
core.
The Impact of the Spanish Withdrawal
The
Spanish prime minister-elect has pledged to withdraw Spain's
contingent of 1,300 troops from Iraq unless the United Nations
(U.N.) is given control over security forces in that country. His demands are
unlikely to be met, and the withdrawal of Spanish troops will
probably take place by the June 30 handover of power in Iraq. He
has so far rebuffed entreaties from Secretary of State Colin Powell
and Prime Minister Blair to reconsider his decision.
Spanish forces represent just 1 percent of
the 130,000 coalition troops in Iraq, and their departure would not
affect the coalition's ability to conduct operations. In addition
to Spain, 12 other European countries have military or police
personnel on the ground. Spain was due to take over the command
of the 9,000-strong multinational force in the central-south area
of Iraq. Fortunately, Poland, which has 2,500 troops in the
country, has already indicated that it will maintain its command of
the region if Spain withdraws. In the next few months, the addition
of 4,500 troops from Japan and South Korea will bolster the
U.S.-led coalition.
However, a unilateral move by Spain to
pull out its forces will be a symbolic blow to the coalition and
may prompt other European nations such as Italy and Denmark, which
have small contingents in Iraq, to consider doing the same. It
could also deter wavering allies from committing new troops on the
ground. In the coming months, the Bush Administration will need to
make strenuous efforts to shore up the "coalition of the willing"
in Iraq--which will require skillful shuttle diplomacy across
Europe. High-level Washington officials must listen to the
political concerns of U.S. allies in Rome, London, Warsaw, and
other friendly European capitals.
A NATO Command for Iraq
Washington should make every effort to
convince Madrid that a troop withdrawal from Iraq would be
counterproductive. The U.S. should also push for a new U.N.
Security Council resolution endorsing American and British plans
for the handover of power in Iraq. However, in doing so, the Bush
Administration should not make major concessions to Spain, France,
or Germany. Rather, U.S. strategy regarding coalition-building in
Iraq should be both pragmatic and visionary.
Washington should call for NATO to take
over command of coalition troops after the June 30 handover. This
should result in a greater willingness among European nations to
contribute to the long-term security and stability of Iraq.
Washington should lay down the gauntlet to Paris and Berlin,
calling on them to join the multinational effort to build a
democratic and safe Iraq. Thus far, the critics--led by President
Chirac--have carped disdainfully from the sidelines without lifting
a finger to help the people of Iraq. NATO involvement would allow
continental Europe's two biggest powers, France and Germany, to be
part of the solution and not part of the problem. It may also give
the new Spanish prime minister a face-saving opportunity to keep
Spanish forces in the country.
The
Spanish demand--shared by France and Germany--that the U.N. take
over control of coalition forces in Iraq, is both unreasonable and
unrealistic. The U.N. does have an important advisory role to play,
including the training of election officials and the monitoring of
elections. However, it should not have a military or a dominant
political role.
Handing over political and military power to the U.N. would be a
strategic disaster.
A
NATO command in Iraq is a far better alternative to giving the U.N.
a bigger say in Iraq's future. Unlike the U.N., NATO is a
multinational organization that is run effectively and can project
military power. NATO's track record--from deterring the Soviet
Union to expanding the zone of democracy in Europe--has been
excellent, and bodes well for any future stabilization in Iraq. A
NATO presence in Iraq, combined with its operations in Afghanistan,
will carve out a new role for the alliance.
A Wake-Up Call for Europe
The
Madrid bombings should shatter the illusions of many Europeans who
mistakenly believed that the war on terrorism could be won through
U.N. resolutions, international courts, and appeasement. Although
the war on terrorism consists of more than military action,
intelligence coordination among major states such as Spain and the
U.S. remains a prerequisite for dealing with al-Qaeda, ETA, and
other terrorist groups.
Much
of Europe still believes that this is America's war and America's
problem--not Europe's. The Madrid bombings should be a wake-up call
for high-level EU officials who think the war on terrorism can be
won simply by applying the gentle nostrums of economic aid. Islamic
terrorists are at war not only with the United States, but also
with Western ideas, ideals, and societies.
The
tragedy in Madrid once again illustrates that outgoing Prime
Minister Aznar has been right all along: Any effort to win the war
on terrorism must have a military and intelligence-sharing
component if it is to succeed. As Prime Minister Aznar recently
stated in The Wall Street Journal, terrorism is the world's problem
and must be crushed:
If
we want to stop the terrorists from murdering us and from dictating
how we lead our lives, we must confront them. Some think the
solution is to sue for peace, to negotiate with terrorists so that
they might go and kill elsewhere. But that way is unacceptable to
me and to millions of Spaniards. Terrorism deserves only to be
defeated. This is the debt we owe to the victims of the attacks,
and to the society that mourns them.... Ours is a battle between
freedom, democracy and civilization, on the one hand, and terror on
the other. If on September 11 we were all American, on March 11 the
whole world was Spanish. We cannot just abandon this battle; it is
everyone's fight.
In
the wake of the Madrid attacks, some positive signs are emerging
from the EU--along with growing evidence of a new determination to
combat terrorism in Europe. A recent summit of European leaders in
Brussels led to an agreement on over 50 Europe-wide anti-terrorism
measures. These include increased airport security, the sharing of
passport databases, and a continent-wide register of individuals
convicted of terrorist offenses. European heads of state also
pledged in an 18-page declaration to "mobilize all the instruments
at their disposal, including military resources" to prevent another
major attack on European soil.
However, European anti-terrorism
initiatives will only succeed if they involve cooperation with the
United States and are integrated into the broader war on terrorism.
The terrorist atrocities in Madrid should strengthen the resolve of
Europe's leaders to work more closely with Washington on
intelligence-gathering, criminal prosecutions, and military action
to combat international terrorism. The United States and Europe
have a common interest in defeating the scourge of global
terrorism. Hopefully, these tragic bombings will draw the U.S. and
Europe closer together, instead of dividing them further. Continued
cooperation among allies is essential to defeating international
terrorism.
What the Coalition Should Do
The
U.S. and its allies should take the following steps to minimize the
effects of the Spanish withdrawal and to prosecute the war on
terrorism:
- A diplomatic
offensive. The Bush Administration needs to make strenuous
efforts to shore up the "coalition of the willing" in Iraq. This
will require skillful shuttle diplomacy across Europe. Secretary of
State Colin Powell and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice
should personally take charge of overseeing this diplomatic
offensive.
- A White House
summit on Iraq. High-level Washington officials need to
listen to the concerns of allies in Rome, Warsaw, and other
friendly European capitals regarding Iraq policy. The
Administration should invite key European allies to a summit
meeting at the White House. The Administration should also actively
promote the idea of a NATO command in Iraq.
- Strengthening
the alliance with New Europe. Because Spain is joining the
Franco-German axis, the United States and Great Britain must
reinvigorate their efforts to reinforce the alliance with the
nations of New Europe. The expansion of NATO to 26
members--including several nations in Central and Eastern
Europe--should serve as an opportunity to increase the military and
political ties between Washington, London, and former Eastern Bloc
countries.
- Intelligence-sharing. The U.S. and
Europe should greatly increase their intelligence cooperation and
carefully coordinate the new European anti-terrorism initiatives
with the U.S.-led war on terrorism. While most intelligence-sharing
will continue at the bilateral level, the appointment of a new
"anti-terrorism czar" should facilitate closer direct cooperation
between the United States and the European Union in areas of joint
concern.
- Combating
al-Qaeda in Spain. It is imperative that the United States
and Spain continue to work closely together in the war on
terrorism. Spanish and U.S. intelligence agencies, investigators,
and special forces should coordinate their efforts to destroy the
terrorist network behind the Madrid bombings.
- NATO leadership
for Iraq. NATO should be brought into Iraq in an effort to
give European partners a bigger stake on the ground. NATO
involvement would likely draw more allies into the Iraq coalition
and reduce the likelihood that European countries would withdraw
their forces.
Conclusion
The
election of Prime Minister Zapatero will undoubtedly weaken the
close ties between Washington and Madrid. The strong partnership
between outgoing Prime Minister Aznar and President Bush is
unlikely to be emulated by Spain's new prime minister.
However, despite differences over Iraq, it
is imperative that the United States and Spain continue to work
closely together in the war on terrorism. If Spain withdraws from
the U.S.-led coalition, the terrorists will have achieved their
goal of shattering the Spanish-American alliance.
Nile Gardiner, Ph.D., is Fellow in
Anglo-American Security Policy and John Hulsman, Ph.D., is
Research Fellow in European Affairs in the Kathryn and Shelby
Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage
Foundation.