As U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Paul O'Neill
explained to The Financial Times in February, the key factor
underlying recent financial crises is not a failure of capitalism,
but an "absence of capitalism." Argentina provides a cogent
example; its lack of economic freedom--the necessary environment
for capitalism to work effectively--resulted in continual economic
decline and, ultimately, the financial crisis that erupted in
economic policies and political instability contributed to
Argentina's decline from its noteworthy position as the world's
10th wealthiest nation in 1913 to the world's 36th wealthiest in
1998. Argentina is the only wealthy country to experience so great
a reversal in recent history, despite the involvement of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Indeed, the IMF's loans and
guidance have aggravated, not alleviated, Argentina's problems.
After more than nine bailouts and extensions of IMF loans since
1983, Argentina once again faces a financial crisis, with
prospects for stimulating effective economic growth in the
Instead of supporting a continuation of
Argentina's policies that feed the current 33-month-long recession,
the Bush Administration should encourage Argentina to adopt
policies that will increase economic freedom and lead to long-term
growth and stability. Specific policies that the Administration
should encourage Argentina to implement include:
- Adopting the U.S. dollar as its
official currency. Speculation about the sustainability of
Argentina's currency board helped increase interest rate premiums
on debt. The best way for Argentina to address the interest rate
premium resulting from currency risk would be to adopt the U.S.
dollar as its own currency. This would eliminate the risk stemming
from the peso-dollar exchange rate and lead to lower interest rates
on the country's debt, which is what happened in El Salvador and
Panama after they adopted the dollar.
- Reduce spending and taxes. To spur
economic growth, Argentina needs to bolster productive behavior by
lowering taxes to increase the incentive to work, save, and invest.
To lower taxes without aggravating the fiscal deficit, it also
needs to slash government expenditures. A plan introduced by the
Minister of Economy includes a cut in expenditures; but instead of
lowering taxes, it would shift the tax burden from businesses to
international investors, imposing new costs without allowing the
beneficial stimulus associated with an overall reduction in taxes.
Restoring economic growth will require much deeper reductions in
government expenditures and more extensive tax cuts.
- Foster further deregulation.
President Fernando de la Rúa succeeded in getting a labor
reform bill passed by Argentina's Senate and lower house. Argentina
should build on this progress by scaling back regulations
governing, for example, the ability of employers to lay off
employees. The government also needs to scale back the wages and
numbers of public-sector employees. This is particularly true in
the provinces, where many public-sector workers do not contribute
to production and are a drain on public resources.
- Encourage free trade. Argentina
should expand its export markets and diversify its export base by
signing agreements with other nations that are receptive to
unrestricted trade. Considering the linking of the peso and the
dollar, a free trade agreement between the United States and
Argentina would be particularly beneficial by providing greater
stability to Argentine exporters. Argentina will need to open its
market in order to facilitate trade talks with the United States.
If necessary, it should withdraw from the Mercosur trading bloc; if
it wishes to remain a political ally of Mercosur as Chile has done,
it could do so.
- Strengthen the rule of law. The
vulnerability of the judiciary to bribery and political
influence has undermined public confidence to the extent that
ordinary Argentines do not use the legal system and businesses
restrain investments. The Argentine government must punish
corruption more aggressively, insulate the judiciary from political
pressure through whistle-blower protections, and increase standards
for those employed in law enforcement.
Argentina should not look on these reforms
as options. Unless the country resumes strong economic growth soon,
it will likely default on its debt and see its access to
international capital markets crippled.
Restoring economic stability and promoting
growth for Argentina will benefit the United States as well as the
Argentine people. To help avert another crisis in Argentina, the
Bush Administration should encourage Argentina to end its cyclical
dependence on IMF loans and make the reforms necessary to stimulate
growth. Economic growth would enable the government to service its
debt and--if expenditures are also cut--end its reliance on IMF
is just as imperative, however, that the role played by
international financial institutions in the global economy be
restricted. The Bush Administration should seek to implement the
recommendations of the congressionally mandated International
Financial Institutions Advisory Commission, chaired by Allan H.
Meltzer of Carnegie Mellon University, in order to establish a
solid framework for reforming the IMF and World Bank. The reforms
should maximize the organizations' effectiveness, increase
accountability for their lending decisions, and limit their harmful
influence in the global market.
Future crises will be less likely in an
environment that promotes the efficiencies and benefits of open
markets. Unless the Administration addresses the "absence of
capitalism" that afflicts economies around the world by taking this
approach, economic crises will become more frequent and more
Ana I. Eiras is an Economic Policy
Analyst for Latin America and Brett D.
Schaefer is Jay Kingham Fellow in International Regulatory
Affairs in the Center for International Trade and Economics at The