Thousands of Cambodians protesting for democracy in
the capital of Phnom Penh are looking to the United States for
help. On September 8, 9, and 10, these peaceful protesters were
attacked and dispersed by the troops of Second Prime Minister Hun
Sen.
A
number of countries, however, are trying to railroad Cambodia's
democrats into forming a coalition government with Hun Sen. This
almost certainly would lead to a reprise of a major blunder made in
1993 when the Clinton Administration allowed Hun Sen, a former
Khmer Rouge official whose Cambodia People's Party (CPP) was
installed by Vietnam, to bully his way into a coalition with Prince
Norodom Ranariddh, winner of the war-torn country's first election.
Hun Sen used his position to undermine Ranariddh and launched a
bloody coup in July of last year.
Because the international community denied
him aid after this coup, Hun Sen calculated that he could regain
international favor by allowing an election last July 26. He then
used his dominant power to terrorize his opposition and influence
the election outcome. On September 1, Hun Sen's party was declared
the winner with 64 seats in the 122-seat National Assembly;
parliamentary rules, however, prevent him from forming a government
until he reaches a coalition with one of the two main opposition
parties, and the opposition leaders are holding out until Hun Sen
allows an impartial investigation of their allegations of election
fraud.
It
is essential that the United States stand squarely in support of
Cambodia's democrats and not abandon them, as would Japan,
Australia, the European Union (EU), and the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Hun Sen should be told that the
United States will not recognize any government resulting from an
unfair election.
Crisis in Phnom
Penh
Hun
Sen and many in the international community thought the July 26
election would bring greater stability to Cambodia. It has led
instead to a new crisis.
Starting on about August 25, thousands of
supporters of opposition leaders Prince Norodom Ranariddh and Sam
Rainsy camped out near the National Assembly. They supported
demands by Ranariddh and Rainsy that the National Election
Commission (NEC) give a fair hearing to hundreds of complaints
regarding the election--especially a nearly last-minute NEC change
in the vote-to-seat allocation formula that gave a greater number
of seats to Hun Sen's CPP. Ranariddh and Rainsy want their
complaints to be heard before either will consider entering into a
coalition needed to form a new government. Cambodia's constitution
requires a two-thirds majority of the National Assembly to approve
a new government.
Heightened tension has accompanied the
opposition's protests. On August 20, a grenade was thrown close to
Rainsy and bullets were fired. Although Rainsy was unharmed, a
Japanese journalist died. On August 23, protesters burned a statue
commemorating Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia--a deep insult to
Hun Sen, who owes his position to Vietnam. Former leader King
Norodom Sihanouk hosted negotiations between representatives of Hun
Sen and the opposition on September 5, but there has been little
progress.
On
September 8, Hun Sen tried to arrest Rainsy in a confrontation that
resulted in the death of at least one protester. On September 9,
Hun Sen's troops attacked and dispersed protesters outside the
National Assembly, but Ranariddh and Rainsy are still refusing to
consider a coalition that would allow Hun Sen to start a new
government. In light of last year's coup, during which over 100
opposition members were killed, and the March 31, 1997, grenade
attack on Sam Rainsy, which killed 20 of Rainsy's supporters, a
further crackdown by Hun Sen is a strong possibility.
Largely Fair
Polling But Flawed Election
To
understand why so many Cambodians are willing to face such danger,
it is important to examine the events before and after the
election. As an observer with the International Republican
Institute (IRI), the author was able to view 12 polling centers on
July 26 and eight vote count centers on July 27 in the province of
Kratie, about five hours north of Phnom Penh by boat.
Turnout approached 90 percent, and
Cambodians can take credit for conducting the election and the
local vote counting in an orderly manner. As summarized in a joint
statement issued by the IRI and the National Democratic Institute
two days after the election, "The balloting and counting processes
were generally well administered, and the atmosphere on the
balloting and counting days was largely peaceful and upbeat."
Ensuring a CPP
Victory
A
fair election, however, was far from what Hun Sen wanted. For most
of the last year, he used his near-monopoly on political power to
ensure that his CPP won the election. In his bid to regain
international credibility, Hun Sen announced in July 1997 that he
would consider holding a new election. At the time, however, most
opposition leaders were in exile in Thailand, having fled the
execution of over 100 of their members by Hun Sen's forces.
By
early this year, as it became clear that Hun Sen was willing to
gamble on an election, some opposition leaders like Sam Rainsy
returned to start campaigning. But Rainsy and Ranariddh faced
harassment from the start and were denied access to the media by
the government. Hun Sen used his control of the budget to build
many new schools, hand out campaign gifts, and fund a large party
apparatus. In Kratie, the CPP governor claimed to have registered
75 percent of eligible voters for the ruling party. And Hun Sen
used his control of security forces to harass the opposition
country-wide. Before the election, the United Nations (U.N.) was
investigating 12 campaign-related deaths of opposition supporters,
and there were numerous reports of CPP intimidation.
As
the election neared, however, the campaign became energized as
public debate flourished and popular participation grew. On
election day, many Cambodians bravely voted their consciences; in
Kratie the opposition won two of the three available seats.
Flawed NEC
Perhaps the greatest flaw in the July
election was the partisan design of its governing body, the
National Election Commission, which was packed with CPP members.
The lone non-CPP commissioner, the nonpartisan democracy activist
Kassie Neou, played a significant role in ensuring that the polling
process was fair, but much of the NEC's decision-making was carried
out in secret. In late May, the NEC quietly changed the formula by
which assembly seats would be allocated in relation to a party's
votes. The new formula favored the party with the most votes and
apparently was designed to give an advantage to the CPP. After the
election, the opposition noticed this change and protested.
Apparently because of pressure from Hun
Sen, the NEC has refused to give a fair hearing to this complaint
and to hundreds of other formal opposition complaints about
irregularities in polling and local vote-counting. A fair hearing
would help defuse the current crisis in Phnom Penh and create an
atmosphere that could lead to the formation of a new government.
Instead, on September 1, the NEC announced the formal results of
the election, giving the CPP 41.1 percent of the votes and 64 seats
in the Assembly. Ranariddh was awarded 43 seats, and Rainsy
received 15.
Shameful Foreign
Pressure
Hun
Sen's violence before and after the election and the NEC's refusal
to hear the opposition's complaints make it astounding that so many
countries are urging the opposition to honor the results of the
election and form a new government. Since September 1, Japan and
ASEAN have called the election "fair" and have urged the opposition
to reconcile with Hun Sen. Previously, the EU called the elections
fair; on September 4, it advocated reconciliation.
Just
before the election, the leadership of the Joint International
Observer Group (JIOG), an umbrella organization for 34 groups,
including participants from the EU, ASEAN, and other countries,
rejected a report by its own observers that was critical of the Hun
Sen government's conduct of the election. But such reservations by
the JIOG's own members did not stop JIOG spokesman Sven Linder, a
Swedish diplomat, from stating just after the elections that the
voting "reflects in a credible way, the will of the Cambodian
people."
Repeating the
1993 Betrayal
Regrettably, it appears that most of the
governments now seeking to legitimize the Cambodian election
results and urging the opposition--but not Hun Sen--to reconcile
are doing so in full knowledge that the opposition's complaints
have some validity. By so doing, they are abandoning the opposition
to a fate controlled largely by Hun Sen.
This
is exactly what happened in 1993 after the U.N.-sponsored
peacekeeping program and elections, which cost over $2 billion.
After Ranariddh won the 1993 election, Hun Sen threatened a coup.
Instead of standing up to Hun Sen's threats, King Sihanouk, with
the complicit backing of many countries and the implicit backing of
the United States, brokered a deal that allowed Hun Sen to keep
control of the military and the economy. This mistake allowed Hun
Sen gradually to undermine the results of the election by isolating
Cambodian democrats and extending his control over the economy. Hun
Sen also allowed the drug trade to grow; suspected drug lords are
among his most powerful supporters. Following his coup, and until
the mid-1998 election campaign, Hun Sen revived authoritarian rule
in Cambodia.
The United
States Should Support Democracy
The
Clinton Administration should not repeat its 1993 blunder by
conferring approval or legitimacy on the July 26 Cambodian
election. Instead, the United States should support Cambodia's
democrats by urging Hun Sen to allow the NEC to investigate the
opposition's complaints as the best way to defuse the current
crisis and help the formation of a new government. As it strongly
urges Hun Sen to refrain from violence against the opposition, the
United States also should criticize countries that are ready to
ignore Hun Sen's abuses and push the opposition into a deadly
coalition.
Genuine stability in Cambodia requires a
democratic future. The Cambodian people want democracy; it is they
who deserve credit for the degree of fairness in the July election.
Since the 1950s, U.S. taxpayers have spent about $5 billion on
economic and military aid to Cambodia, in addition to losing about
500 of their countrymen there during the Indochina conflict. To
honor the bravery and sacrifice of Cambodians and Americans, the
Clinton Administration should:
-
Refuse to legitimize the election.
The Clinton Administration should not join Japan and other
countries in seeking to legitimize the Cambodian election. Instead,
the United States should publicly call on Cambodia's National
Election Commission and on Hun Sen himself to allow a fair and open
hearing of the opposition's complaints. The United States should
tell both the NEC and Hun Sen that democracy requires a tolerance
that, so far, they have been unwilling to demonstrate.
-
Withhold aid and recognition. After
Hun Sen's 1997 coup, the Administration suspended most aid to
Cambodia except for some humanitarian assistance. It should
continue to do so. The United States also should continue its
refusal to recognize the Hun Sen government's claim to Cambodia's
seat in the U.N. Until Hun Sen allows a fair hearing of the
opposition's complaints, moreover, the United States should urge
ASEAN not to admit Cambodia to full membership in that
organization.
-
Warn Hun Sen against using violence to
silence the opposition. The Clinton Administration should
condemn the violent crackdown by Hun Sen's troops against peaceful
demonstrators on September 8 and 9. It should warn Hun Sen that the
United States will suspend diplomatic relations with Cambodia if
his forces harm opposition leaders. In addition, the
Administration. should offer Ranariddh and Rainsy bulletproof
clothing and blast-resistant vehicles.
The State Department has a mixed record of
helping democrats like Sam Rainsy. On August 20, U.S. Ambassador
Kenneth Quinn reportedly intervened with the Hun Sen government to
secure the release of Rainsy, who had been arrested in the
aftermath of the grenade attack on him. This goes far to counter an
often-stated opinion, as reported in The New York Times,
that Quinn is "widely perceived as pro-Hun Sen."1 However, Quinn also is thought to
have prevented the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) from
completing its investigation of last year's grenade attack on
Rainsy. Reportedly, after death threats against the FBI agents,
Quinn sent them home.2 It
is likely that their investigation would have established that Hun
Sen's security forces conducted the attack, and the State
Department may have wished to avoid complicating relations with Hun
Sen.3 The FBI should
complete its report of this incident and make its findings
public.
- Credit the
Cambodian people. All credit for the proper conduct of the
polling and initial vote count belongs to the Cambodian people. The
United States should distinguish between their performance and the
violence and intimidation of Hun Sen's government and party. In a
sad irony, the governments and organizations calling the election
free and fair are in effect giving Hun Sen credit that belongs to
the millions of Cambodians who voted bravely on July 26. The United
States should urge Japan, the EU, and ASEAN to praise the Cambodian
people's conduct in creating a fair election and condemn Hun Sen's
efforts to create a climate of fear and intimidation.
Conclusion
The
Clinton Administration should not support the results of the July
26 Cambodian election until the National Election Commission has
responded fairly to the complaints of Cambodia's protesting
opposition parties. This stand will help defuse the current crisis
in Phnom Penh and give the opposition better leverage to help
ensure that an eventual coalition is not dominated by Hun Sen.
The
United States should not join Japan, the EU, and ASEAN in trying to
force the opposition to join a Hun Sen-controlled government. Hun
Sen is responsible for numerous acts of violence against the
opposition, both before and after his July 1997 coup. He controls
Cambodia's growing narcotics traffic and has allowed the economy to
be controlled by corruption.
Although the CPP is likely to have more
seats in the National Assembly than any other party, this does not
mean that the United States has to condone Hun Sen's destruction of
Cambodia. The Clinton Administration should make clear that it will
support Cambodians who work for the rule of law, against
corruption, and for an end to the drug trade in Cambodia. If it
chooses this course, the Administration can go far to make up for
its strategic mistake in 1993 that allowed Hun Sen to undermine
Cambodia's first free election.
-- Richard D. Fisher, Jr.
is former Director of The Asian Studies Center at The Heritage
Foundation.
Endnotes