It's an alluring idea: If the United States disarms or restrains
its military forces, other countries would do the same. The notion
is gaining ground in the Obama administration; it needs very
careful scrutiny.
The president's thinking about nuclear disarmament is grounded
in this idea. In laying out his vision of a nuclear-weapons-free
world, Mr. Obama asserted that "as the only nuclear power to have
used a nuclear weapon, the United States has a moral responsibility
to act. We cannot succeed in this endeavor [to rid the world of
nuclear weapons] alone, but we can lead it."
Let's ignore the question of whether a nuclear-free world is
achievable. The president clearly sees America's nuclear arsenal as
a central part of the problem. He puts America squarely in the
nuclear disarmament dock and offers unilateral restraint as a
measure of leadership. Clearly, he believes that unilateral
restraint is necessary to get the ball rolling toward universal
nuclear disarmament. Put simply, by disarming ourselves, we remove
at least one reason for others to have them in the first place.
Those holding this worldview are usually, at the very least,
ambivalent about America's military superiority. Mr. Obama doesn't
say so, but many of his more liberal followers think our huge lead
in weapons technology forces others to try to catch up by acquiring
more weapons. Thus, the logic goes, if we want others to disarm, we
must do so ourselves.
defense Secretary Robert M. Gates is certainly is no fan of this
kind of disarmament thinking, and yet he has a strange ambivalence
about aspects of our military superiority. Some critics have
charged that his most recent defense budget will erode our military
superiority in vital areas.
In justifying his budget, Mr. Gates has said that "every defense
dollar spent to ... run up the score in a capability where the
United States is already dominant is a dollar not available to take
care of our people, reset the force, win the wars we are in." The
assumption seems to be that we can afford to narrow the overall
defense gap without adverse consequences, because we have "run up
the score" and there is supposedly no inherent benefit from a large
degree of military superiority over our adversaries.
But Mr. Gates and Mr. Obama misunderstand the real-world
dynamics of U.S. military superiority. America's military strength
and determination to excel more often than not have discouraged
aggression and - in cases like Libya - actually encouraged
disarmament. Moreover, other countries don't always mirror our
restraint. In fact, seeing the military gap closing can entice them
to work harder to catch up, and this could happen faster than Mr.
Gates imagines.
A recent nuclear arms race "game" conducted by my colleague,
Baker Spring, shows how simplistic arms race ideas can be
wrong.
Mr. Spring, a research fellow in national security policy at the
Heritage Foundation, brought together experts to simulate real
world reactions by nuclear powers to various crises and arms
control proposals. In most cases, instead of responding in kind to
U.S. unilateral acts of restraint, a majority of states, including
Russia, maximized their nuclear forces to the extent their
resources permitted. Three of the seven put their nuclear forces on
alert in response to the U.S. "de-alerting" its forces. This so
alarmed our allies, who feared we were backing off their defense,
that they began taking defense measures on their own that escalated
the crisis.
Even worse, when the U.S. tried to reassure other nuclear powers
by making our nuclear command-and-control activities more
transparent, four countries did the opposite, "shrouding" their
plans and decisions.
Odd behavior? Not really: Some countries see nuclear weapons as
instruments to achieve advantage over others. They aren't nuclear
powers simply because we are, and their behavior is dictated not by
fear of us, but rather by a desire to achieve some gain over an
adversary. Saddam Hussein bluffed about his nuclear weapons program
because he wanted to deter Iran, not us.
Unilateral restraint does not always produce the desired
response from others. It can backfire and embolden other powers to
take advantage of a perceived opening. When other nuclear powers
think the U.S. is serious and capable of defense and retaliation,
they are far more likely to behave responsibly and in a stabilizing
fashion. America's nuclear superiority is not a provocation, as
some think, but a deterrent to aggression.
The same is true with respect to America's conventional military
superiority. In the real world, the wider the gap over potential
adversaries, the less incentive they have to try to catch up. Our
superiority is a form of deterrence; it deters enemies not only
from challenging us on the battlefield, but from having much hope
of ever catching up with the quality and quantity of our weapons
systems. We saw this with the Soviet Union in light of President
Reagan's defense spending boost.
Conversely, were the superiority gap to shrink and catching up
appear to be more attainable, our adversaries would likely
accelerate their weapons programs. Allowing our superiority to wane
gives an incentive for others to build weapons - providing an
impetus for an arms race.
The lessons are clear: Don't assume others will mirror our
restraint on military arms, and don't assume we can tolerate
marginal erosions of superiority in any category of military
weapons. The best way to deter adversaries is to keep our defense
as strong as possible, and to demonstrate our commitment to use it
if challenged.
Kim
Holmes is vice president of foreign- and defense-policy
studies at the Heritage Foundation.