The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its baseline budget outlook through fiscal year 2022 on January 31. The analysis is as creditable to the CBO as its message is daunting to the nation. Read More.
Thw Mid-Session Review (MSR), released by the White House on September 1, is the marked deterioration in the economic forecast just since June. Read More.
Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI), chairman of the Committee on the Budget of the U.S. House of Representatives, requested by letter that the Center for Data Analysis (CDA) undertake an economic analysis of the House Budget Resolution for federal fiscal year 2012 through 2021. Read More.
In this essay, Professor Bruce Caldwell draws upon the writings of Hayek, other Austrian economists, and public choice theorists to distill 10 fundamental insights that not only apply to the current crisis. Read More.
The Obama Administration’s $862 billion stimulus bill was an expensive failure that increased the federal deficit, contributed to America’s deteriorating fiscal health, and failed to reduce unemployment. Read More.
There is near-universal agreement among economists that raising marginal tax rates during slow economic times only makes the economy weaker. Read More.
Executive Summary Between 2003 and 2006, home prices rose dramatically, but then they fell abruptly in 2007 and thereafter. While many believe that the main cause of the boom was easy access to credit in the…
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its baseline budget outlook through fiscal year 2022 on January 31. The analysis is as creditable to the CBO as its message is daunting to the nation. After squandering three years in which the signal consequences have been persistent high unemployment coupled with an…
Abstract: Robert Lucas’s famous critique of macro modeling focused the attention of modelers on what he called adaptive expectations: What’s happening “now” in a model’s data space is more important than what’s happened in the past. Lucas made…
Testimony before Committee on Ways and Means United States House of Representatives September 21, 2011 …
There is no such thing as a free lunch. Congress wants to help the unemployed, but extending the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits slightly harms the economy. Raising benefits to 99 weeks has increased the unemployment rate by 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points.[1] …
Every year, no later than July 15, the White House is supposed to release an update on the economy and the state of the federal budget. In addition to its tardiness, the first essential feature of this year’s Mid-Session Review (MSR),[1] released by the White House on September…
Abstract: Federal social programs are rarely evaluated to determine whether they are actually accomplishing their intended purposes. As part of its obligation to spend taxpayers’ dollars wisely, Congress should mandate that experimental evaluations of every federal social program be conducted. The evaluations should be…
Updated as of April 6, 2011. Read the statement on the update. Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI), chairman of the Committee on the Budget of the U.S. House of Representatives, requested by letter that…
Abstract: The 2010 Heritage Energy Game demonstrated that there are significant vulnerabilities in the domestic and international energy network. Coordinated attacks by terrorists and other violent nonstate actors could cause a massive drop in oil production and price…
"Scapegoating,” claimed the American Federation of Government Employees. “Punishment,” said the Federal Managers Association. “Transparently cynical,” declared Paul Krugman. President Obama’s late November announcement of a two-year pay freeze for federal workers has been poorly received by unions and left-wing activists, who see it as the end result of a…
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), the health care bill signed into law by President Obama in March, will overhaul the current health insurance system by enforcing mandates on individuals and businesses, expanding Medicaid, and introducing new taxes and fines to help pay for the increased…
Abstract: Since 1996, Congress after Congress has voted to lighten the tax burden on Americans. The current Congress will decide this fall whether to continue this policy or to significantly raise personal income taxes. President Obama has advanced a plan that reverses the long-standing…
Testimony of Paul Kersey Bradley Visiting Fellow Before the House of Representatives; Small Business Committee; Subcommittee on Workforce, Empowerment, and Government Programs Regarding The Economic Effects of the Minimum Wage Ladies and gentlemen, it is understandable to want to…
Abstract: Renewable energy—harnessing the power of the wind and the sun—sounds wonderful until confronted with the facts. While wind and sun are indeed free, turning their energy into consumer-accessible electricity is not. Nor is it easy. Wind power must be used at the moment…
Abstract: The economist Friedrich Hayek attempted in his writings to spotlight the interlocking set of ideas—constructivist rationalism, scientism, socialism, “the engineering mentality”—that was leading the West down what he famously called the road to serfdom and to propose in its place a return to…
The President's fiscal year (FY) 2007 budget submission to Congress includes a number of important initiatives. Among them is a plan to create a Dynamic Analysis Division within the Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) in the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Dynamic analysis gauges the impact on federal tax revenues of the changes in output…
If a meteorologist was asked what the day's high temperature had been, would it be acceptable to simply repeat his/her earlier forecast? Of course not. The forecast was merely a prediction, which should now be replaced with what actually happened. Yet that is the approach the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)…
Abstract: The Obama Administration’s $862 billion stimulus bill was an expensive failure that increased the federal deficit, contributed to America’s deteriorating fiscal health, and failed to reduce unemployment. Instead of repeating this mistake, Congress should alleviate business fears and economic uncertainty by maintaining the…
There is near-universal agreement among economists that raising marginal tax rates during slow economic times only makes the economy weaker. Higher tax rates reduce employment, cut investment activity, and soften household demand for goods and services. Even so, Congress is considering right now a number of tax proposals, most of…
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) just announced that the country’s current account deficit for 2011 was $473.4...…
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis today announced that U.S. exports for January were $4.4 billion higher than in...…
The Environmental Protection Agency released its economic analysis of the Kerry-Lieberman cap and trade legislation,...…
Director, Center for Data Analysis and Lazof Family Fellow
Senior Policy Analyst, Tax Policy
Norman B. Ture Senior Fellow in the Economics of Fiscal Policy
Policy Analyst
Senior Policy Analyst in Labor Economics