During the 2005 budget
reconciliation debate, critics trotted out the tired old myth that
Republicans were cutting spending for the poor to pay for tax
cuts for the rich. Many commentators accepted this as truth and
repeated it, including Washington Post columnist E. J.
Dionne, who accused the Republicans of passing a
"cut-from-the-poor, give-to-the-rich budget."
However, the facts
simply do not support these overheated claims. Rather than reduce
entitlement spending, the budget reconciliation bill merely reduced
its projected five-year growth rate from 39 percent to 38 percent.
Furthermore, the flagship "additional" tax cuts were nearly all
extensions of existing tax policies that would soon have
expired.
More broadly, the
accusation that poor families are shouldering more of the tax
burden while receiving less of the spending is empirically false.
From 1979 through 2003, the total federal tax burden on the
highest-earning quintile (one-fifth or 20 percent) of Americans-who
earn 52 percent of all income-rose from 56 percent to 66 percent of
all taxes. Their share of individual income taxes jumped from 65
percent to 85 percent. On the spending side, antipoverty spending
has leaped from 9.1 percent of all federal spending in 1990 to a
record 16.3 percent in 2004.
Misreading the
Data
The data clearly show
that the tax burden is shifting annually up the income scale while
spending continues to move down the scale. In other words, the
people with the highest incomes are paying more of the tax burden
while the poor are receiving more of the spending. Yet the
misperception that the federal government is doing the
opposite persists. This misperception is based on five
factors:
The
stereotype that Republican
government automatically means less redistribution.
Baseline
budgeting, which guarantees
that large, persistent, annual increases in entitlement spending
will go unnoticed because they occur automatically. Conversely, any
attempt to scale back these automatic increases receives
extensive media scrutiny because it requires a separate
vote.
Tax cut sunset
laws that require Congress
to pass a new tax bill merely to keep the current tax rates at the
same level, which allows these bills to be misreported as "new" tax
cuts.
The misleading
focus on how tax relief
saves wealthy taxpayers the most money while ignoring the
mathematical reality that the bottom half of taxpayers cannot
receive much tax relief because they already pay almost no income
tax.
An erroneous
belief that tax cuts for
upper-income Americans substantially reduce the amount of tax that
they actually pay. Indeed, there is little correlation between tax
rates and taxes paid.
Furthermore, the
persistent increase in federal antipoverty spending fosters an
unhealthy dependence on government. For example, from 1990 to
2005, the Medicaid caseload doubled to 55 million participants,
meaning that the government increasingly is taking over the
health care system from private companies and from community
and charitable organizations, thus eroding self-reliance,
independence, and local community responsibilities. The
measure of the effectiveness of government antipoverty programs is
not how many people are trapped into financial dependence on the
government, but how many people succeed in freeing themselves
from dependence on the government.
Conclusion
The myth of increased
government redistribution from the poor to the wealthy has
important consequences for lawmakers. In particular, it clouds the
real choices that must be made.
On the tax side, the
mathematically impossible principle that income tax relief should
be concentrated among families who pay no income tax
prevents any consideration of legitimate tax relief or tax
reform. Additionally, the misperception that higher tax rates
induce substantially higher tax revenues among upper-income
taxpayers translates into pressures for tax increases that
harm economic growth without substantially increasing tax
revenues.
On the spending side,
the myth that antipoverty spending is being slashed also matters.
In an era of massive, unsustainable spending increases and budget
deficits, this erroneous consensus has effectively taken
one-fifth of the non-interest federal budget off the table. In
fact, anything less than the baseline growth of as much as 8
percent per year is now considered by many to be unconscionable.
Given the long-term spending challenges America faces, it is time
to analyze realistically which areas of federal spending are
increasing, what the legitimate functions of the federal
government are, and what is ultimately affordable.
Brian M.
Riedl is Grover M. Hermann Fellow in Federal
Budgetary Affairs in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic
Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation.