In the next several weeks, the Department of
Defense is expected to approve the draft of a new doctrine
regarding U.S. strategic and nuclear forces. This is an essential
step in carrying out a new policy governing strategic and
nuclear forces, established earlier by the Bush Administration.
On January 9, 2002,
Department of Defense officials described to the public the
contents of the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). This
congressionally required study established a new policy for
governing the strategic forces of the United States that was
designed to adapt those forces to the requirements of the
post-Cold War world.[1] Since that time, the Bush
Administration, the Department of Defense (DOD), and the National
Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) in particular have been
making steady progress in fulfilling the NPR's promise to move
U.S. strategic forces away from a Cold War posture and toward a
posture that meets today's needs.
There are indications that
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Peter Pace is
prepared to take the next big step in the process of transforming
the nation's strategic forces. The Joint Staff temporarily posted
on its Web site a draft guidance, the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear
Operations, for the employment of nuclear forces in military
operations.[2] Hans M. Kristensen of the
Natural Resources Defense Council found the unclassified
document, and press reports indicate that the document will be
approved sometime during the next several weeks.[3] Approval
of this document will help to address a criticism of the DOD that
was included in a report earlier this year by an expert panel on
nuclear weapons at the Department of Energy, which manages the
nation's nuclear weapons production and maintenance
infrastructure through the NNSA.[4] This criticism was
that DOD "does not provide [the Department of Energy] with unified
and integrated weapon requirements." The draft guidance,
when approved, will provide the NNSA with many of the weapons
requirements that the expert panel says it needs.
While DOD is making steady
progress toward executing the new policy governing strategic and
nuclear weapons derived from the NPR, Congress has been
inconsistent in supporting this critical effort. For example,
Congress has refused to fund a variety of nuclear weapons research
programs, including the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator
program in 2004, in part because some in Congress believe it
is essential to arms control not to test new nuclear weapons under
any circumstances.
Congress must recognize
that nuclear weapons remain an essential part of the military
capabilities that protect the nation's security, keep the peace,
and advance U.S. nonproliferation goals. Further, Members of
Congress need to understand that the current nuclear arsenal and
its supporting infrastructure remain products of the Cold War
and are not capable of reassuring U.S. friends and allies,
dissuading strategic competitors, deterring aggression, and
defeating the enemies of the U.S.-goals spelled out in the
NPR.
Congress can move to
restore confidence in the strategic and nuclear forces of the U.S.
by reaffirming the policy established by the NPR, pledging to
meet the military requirements spelled out in the new draft
doctrine, and funding the specific nuclear weapons research,
development, and modernization programs that will ultimately
assure that these military requirements are met.
The
Nuclear Posture Review
The NPR establishes
a new strategic triad to replace the triad that protected the U.S.
during the Cold War. The old triad consisted of offensive nuclear
weapons and their supporting command and control network and
infrastructure: intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs),
submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and long-range
bombers. The new triad preserves the three elements, albeit at
reduced numbers, and augments them with non-nuclear strike systems,
defenses, and a responsive infrastructure. These latter
components are designed to ensure that U.S. strategic forces
can be adapted to address unexpected developments in today's
fluid and less predictable security environment.
While the NPR
reduces the preeminent role of nuclear weapons in the strategic
force posture and recommends reducing their numbers to levels not
seen since the 1970s, it clearly recognizes that nuclear weapons
continue to play an essential role in protecting national security.
The NPR is equally clear in determining that maintaining peace and
security in today's environment requires that nuclear weapons serve
broader purposes than they did during the Cold War, when they were
intended to deter the Soviet Union from launching a nuclear strike
at the U.S. and its allies.
Although the NPR
does not use this terminology, it established a "damage-limitation
strategy" to guide the creation of the new strategic triad. The
nuclear arsenal, as an essential element of the new triad, is
designed to make the necessary contributions to meeting the needs
of the damage-limitation strategy. This strategy is designed to
lessen the incentives for other states to acquire nuclear,
biological, and chemical weapons; to reduce the likelihood of
an attack on the U.S. and its friends and allies with such
weapons; and to limit the impact of such attacks.
Specifically, the
damage-limitation strategy seeks to:
-
Dissuade states and terrorist
groups from acquiring nuclear, biological, and chemical
weapons and the means to deliver them in the first
place.
-
Dissuade states that already have
nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and the means to
deliver them from acquiring more of them.
-
Reassure friends and allies in a
way that reduces their appetite for nuclear weapons and for
ballistic missile delivery systems in particular.
-
Reassure friends and allies in a
way that improves the ability of the United States to maintain
stability in a proliferated setting.
-
Deter attacks on the U.S. and its
friends and allies with nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons,
particularly those mounted on ballistic missile delivery
systems.
-
Deter terrorists from attacking
the U.S. and its friends and allies with nuclear, biological, and
chemical weapons by whatever means of delivery.
-
Defeat possible attacks on the
U.S. and its friends and allies with nuclear, biological, and
chemical weapons, whether by enemy states or terrorists, in part by
deploying effective defenses against such attacks and in part by
destroying the means of attack through offensive
operations.
-
Defeat the purpose of possible
attacks on the U.S. and its friends and allies with nuclear,
biological, and chemical weapons, whether by states or
terrorists, by limiting the damage that such attacks would
otherwise inflict.
Meeting these
requirements requires the kind of diversified strategic force
envisioned by the NPR in the new triad. In this context, the
nuclear arsenal, as a subset of the new strategic triad, will
contribute greatly to meeting some of these
requirements.
Nuclear weapons can play
roles in meeting these requirements, even in situations where, on
the surface, they would appear to play little or no role. For
example, U.S. nuclear weapons would appear to do little to dissuade
suicidal terrorists from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, if the
U.S. makes it known that a hostile state may be subject to nuclear
retaliation if it furnishes a nuclear weapon that a terrorist
organization uses in an attack, nuclear weapons will help to
dissuade the state sponsor. While the terrorist organization itself
may not be dissuaded in this instance, its logical supplier may
think twice. This in turn, at least at the margin, will lessen the
likelihood that the U.S. will face a nuclear-armed terrorist
group.
The key here is to have a
modern nuclear arsenal that includes weapons specifically tailored
to meeting this purpose. While the government has yet to
define the design of these weapons, it is clear that the existing
nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Cold War, does not include such
weapons.
The
Draft Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations
While the decision
to adopt the draft Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations rests with
the DOD leadership, Congress should support approval of the draft
in its current form. Congress also needs to recognize both that
this doctrine will impose requirements on the combatant commanders
who are responsible for directing wartime operations and that it
must support and fund the nuclear weapons programs that will allow
the commanders to meet their requirements. For Congress to meet its
own responsibilities, it must first understand the content of the
Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations, especially given that
it is likely to become official DOD guidance in the near
future.
The draft Doctrine
for Joint Nuclear Operations is necessarily a lengthy and detailed
document. Nevertheless, it contains several provisions that deserve
the special attention of Congress because they carry specific
implications with respect to how Congress will meet its
responsibilities to provide military commanders with the tools that
they need.
Implication #1: The Law of
Armed Conflict permits the use of nuclear weapons in
war.
The draft Doctrine for
Joint Nuclear Operations is crystal clear on the subject of the
permissibility of using nuclear weapons in war. Support for this
finding in the draft document is the most important nuclear
weapons-related policy issue facing Congress today because
opponents and critics will be looking for weakened wording. If this
draft document is adopted, U.S. military commanders will be
assured, as they have been in the past, that they will have the
option to recommend the use of nuclear weapons to the President
under appropriate circumstances and that executing a
presidential order to use them constitutes a legal
order.
Others, including those in
favor of U.S. nuclear disarmament, have contended and will contend
otherwise because they view the employment of nuclear weapons as a
disproportionate use of force under all circumstances.[5] Their contention is wrong, and
Congress needs to understand that fact. If Congress fails to
understand this fact, it is certain to fail to meet its
responsibility to provide military commanders with the authority
and nuclear forces that they need to protect the U.S.
At the same time, Congress
needs to understand that the key words here are "under appropriate
circumstances." As with the use of other weapons, nuclear
weapons may be used only under circumstances in which it is
necessary to achieve legitimate military objectives and ensure
military advantage. Inherit in this limitation is the principle of
proportionality, which seeks to limit unnecessary suffering
and protect noncombatants. The implication of this limitation for
Congress is that the U.S. needs to modernize its nuclear arsenal in
a way that precisely meets U.S. military objectives in today's
world.
Implication #2: Integrated
target planning is the cornerstone of overall strategic
planning.
The NPR established a new
strategic triad that includes conventional and defensive forces in
addition to nuclear forces. This step effectively limits the
role of nuclear forces in the overall U.S. strategic posture. It
also poses a significant challenge to design new plans to guide the
creation of strategic forces, including nuclear weapons, and govern
their use. The draft Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations handles
this by establishing an integrated targeting process. Specifically,
this process seeks to allocate targeting requirements among
conventional and nuclear forces on one axis and between offensive
and defensive forces on a second axis.
If Congress is to clear
the way for modernizing the nuclear force to meet the needs of this
integrated targeting process, it must begin by funding a robust
research and development effort to determine which nuclear weapon
capabilities are needed to hold at risk the various targets. The
targets will be determined through the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear
Operations' planning process. The draft Doctrine for Joint Nuclear
Operations provides an illustrative list of the targets to be
included:
-
Weapons of mass destruction and
their associated delivery systems, along with their
command and control and logistic support units;
-
Ground combat units, along with
their associated command and control and support
units;
-
Air defense facilities, along with
support installations;
-
Naval installations and combat
vessels, along with their associated support facilities and command
and control capabilities;
-
Non-state actors and,
specifically, their facilities and operation centers that possess
weapons of mass destruction;
-
Nuclear storage, non-nuclear
storage, and hardened ICBM launch facilities; and
-
Political and military command and
control.
The draft document also defines the factors
to be considered in terms of placing a particular target on the
list. These include time sensitivity, hardness, size, the
geological factors related to underground targets, damage levels
required, defenses, mobility, proximity to populated areas, and the
potential for collateral damage.
One press description of
the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations points to the
illustrative target list and its associated mission requirements
and states that the doctrine "envisions commanders requesting
presidential approval to use [nuclear weapons] to preempt an attack
by a nation or a terrorist group using weapons of mass
destruction." [6] This implies that the doctrine
envisions the U.S. launching unprovoked nuclear attacks at a
moment's notice. The same article quotes Hans Kristensen of the
Natural Resources Defense Council as explicitly stating, "This
doctrine does not deliver on the Bush administration pledge of a
reduced role for nuclear weapons."[7]
Neither the implied nor
the explicit conclusion is true. U.S. nuclear weapons policy, even
prior to the Bush Administration, has maintained the option to use
nuclear weapons to preempt an attack under extraordinary
circumstances. The U.S. has never launched an unprovoked nuclear
attack in its history.
Further, the NPR
downgrades nuclear weapons from the preeminent role they played in
the Cold War strategic posture to a more narrowly defined and
coequal role with conventional and defensive weapons. An ongoing
process to reduce the number of deployed warheads to between
1,700 and 2,200 accompanies this role. The draft Doctrine for Joint
Nuclear Operations reflects the policy established by the
NPR.
Implication #3: Effective
and reliable command and control structures are necessary to
conduct effective nuclear operations.
Strategic forces
generally, whether conventional or nuclear, offensive or defensive,
must be supported by an effective command and control
structure. By definition, this requirement extends to the
nuclear-armed portion of the force. The two most important
characteristics of an effective nuclear command and control
structure are survivability and speed of execution.
The command and control
structure must be robust and redundant enough to survive an enemy
attack, including an attack employing electro-magnetic pulse
(EMP). On July 22, 2004, a congressionally appointed
commission reported to Congress that U.S. military forces are
potentially vulnerable to a nuclear-generated EMP.[8] An EMP is
similar to an extremely high-energy radio wave. It has the
potential to disrupt communications systems, including
military systems.
The nuclear command and
control system must also allow the delivery of nuclear weapons to
their designated targets in a timely manner, particularly if those
targets are mobile and therefore time-sensitive. These command
and control requirements will impose on Congress the duty to
authorize and fund periodic upgrades in the overall strategic and
nuclear command and control systems.
Implication #4: The
existing triad of nuclear weapons remains the best option for the
overall strategic nuclear force posture.
During the Cold War, the
U.S. maintained a triad of ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers because this
combination of strategic nuclear weapons provided the best
option for ensuring the survivability of the force, flexibility
regarding its employment, and effectiveness in meeting targeting
requirements. Most important, it enhanced deterrence. The NPR
preserved the strategic nuclear triad and nested it in a broader
triad that includes defensive forces and a responsive
infrastructure to address unforeseen developments.
The Doctrine for
Joint Nuclear Operations relies on the strategic nuclear triad to
meet the requirements established by the document. As a
result, military commanders will need to modernize all three
legs of the strategic nuclear triad to support their operations.
This includes both the nuclear payloads and the delivery systems.
This modernization must also adapt these nuclear weapons to holding
at risk the kinds of targets described earlier in the
discussion of the integrated targeting
requirements.
Implication #5: High
levels of readiness for certain portions of the strategic nuclear
force are necessary to maintain its effectiveness.
The Doctrine for Joint
Nuclear Operations establishes two levels of readiness for
U.S. strategic nuclear forces. The higher level pertains to the
"operationally deployed" force. The lower level is described as the
"responsive capability."
The operationally deployed
force will consist of the 1,700 to 2,200 warheads after arms
reductions are completed in 2012. This operationally deployed force
is designed to meet immediate and unexpected threats and must be on
alert or available within days. The responsive capability is
to address potential threats and will establish a range of
availability criteria. At the short end of the range is a response
time of "within weeks," while the long end of the range is a "year
or more." The readiness and alert levels of the operationally
deployed force are particularly important to maintain the deterrent
effect of the U.S. strategic nuclear posture.
Implication #6: Nuclear
operations are an essential component of broader theater
operations, and regional commanders need to address the
requirements for nuclear stability in their regions.
With the proliferation of
nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and the means to deliver
them, regional military commanders must plan for the possible
use of nuclear weapons in theater operations. This is necessary
because both hostile states and terrorist groups may use these
weapons against the U.S., its forces, and its allies. The Doctrine
for Joint Nuclear Operations will task these regional commanders
with defining objectives for theater operations and developing
the requisite nuclear plans to meet those objectives, with the
support of the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command. The regional
commanders' plans are required to include target
selections.
The doctrine also provides
a list of illustrative cases in which nuclear weapons may be used.
These include:
-
Countering an adversary's use or
intended use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against U.S.,
multinational, or alliance forces or civilian
populations;
-
Countering an imminent attack with
biological weapons that only nuclear weapons can destroy
safely;
-
Directing attacks on adversary WMD
installations, including those in deeply buried or
hardened bunkers;
-
Countering overwhelming adversary
conventional forces;
-
Attaining the rapid and favorable
termination of a war;
-
Ensuring the success of U.S. and
multinational military operations;
-
Demonstrating U.S. intent and
capability to deter enemy attacks with WMD; and
-
Responding to WMD attacks on U.S.
and multinational forces by surrogates armed by an
adversary.
The draft doctrine
for Joint Nuclear Operations' requirements regarding theater
nuclear operations make urgent the need to understand how to deter,
and if necessary defeat WMD attacks in settings in which more than
two adversaries with such weapons may be participants in a
conflict. Nuclear stability in such multilateral settings is
not easily achieved. The risk is that the complexity involved may
overwhelm the ability of U.S. political and military leaders to
assess the best political and military options available to
them. Therefore, after the doctrine is approved as expected,
regional commands, the U.S. Strategic Command, the Joint
Staff, and DOD civilian leaders will-and ought to-conduct detailed
assessments of the requirements for nuclear stability in
specific regions.
Requirements
for Congress
Once the draft
Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations comes into force, the
combatant commanders of the U.S. military will have a moral
and legal responsibility to produce the specific military plans
governing the use of nuclear weapons and perhaps execute those
plans in ways that are consistent with the doctrine. The
requirements that the doctrine will directly impose on military
commanders will also indirectly impose responsibilities on
Congress, because the military commanders cannot meet their
responsibilities if Congress fails to provide them with the tools
that they need.
Such a failure by Congress
would put commanders in the impossible position of committing
the nation's soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines to nuclear
combat operations in which there is no possibility of military
success. To avoid such an outcome, Congress should take the
following legislative steps.
Step #1: Affirm that the
use of nuclear weapons in war is consistent with the Law of
Armed Conflict.
Assuming that the Doctrine
for Joint Nuclear Operations is approved later this year, Congress
should include a policy finding in next year's Department of
Defense Authorization Bill that affirms the doctrine's declaration
that the use of nuclear weapons is consistent with the Law of Armed
Conflict. Such a finding will remove any ambiguity regarding the
question of whether a military commander is following a legal
order from the President to conduct a nuclear operation. This
action by Congress will also serve to bolster deterrence by
demonstrating the resolve of the U.S. to use nuclear weapons if the
circumstances described in the NPR, National Security Presidential
Directive 14 (which provides presidential nuclear planning
guidance), the Policy Guidance for the Employment of Nuclear
Weapons (a DOD document), and the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear
Operations pertain.
In taking this action,
Congress should understand that such a policy finding does not
represent a radical departure from the U.S. position on the
legality of nuclear operations during the Cold War and the period
immediately following the Cold War. Rather, it would clarify the
matter for all concerned as it relates to today's post-September 11
world.
Step #2: Authorize and
fund a U.S. nuclear weapons modernization effort that is not
artificially constrained by a unilateral limitation on the
conduct of nuclear explosive tests.
In recent years, Congress
has not been consistent in funding a robust nuclear modernization
program. In part, the inconsistency stems from a desire on the
part of some in Congress to prohibit nuclear explosive testing by
the U.S. for the foreseeable future. Generally, these Members of
Congress supported U.S. ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The CTBT, if it enters into force, would
permanently prohibit the participating states from conducting
explosive nuclear tests. The Senate voted to reject ratification of
the CTBT on October 13, 1999.
While the U.S. has not
conducted an explosive test since 1992, there is no international
obligation preventing such a test at this time. Absent U.S.
ratification of the CTBT and its entry into force, the
treaty's supporters in Congress seek to constrain U.S. testing
options on a unilateral basis. The result has been inconsistent
congressional support for vitally important nuclear modernization
programs.
An example of this
inconsistency is the ongoing debate over funding for a program to
research the effectiveness of a weapon designed to destroy enemy
targets that are buried deep underground in hardened bunkers. The
need to hold such targets at risk, including with nuclear weapons,
is affirmed in the draft Doctrine for Joint Nuclear
Operations.
The Department of
Energy has had a program in place to study the feasibility of a
nuclear weapon to hold these targets at risk. This program is
called the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP). In 2004,
however, Congress failed to fund continuation of the program under
the Energy and Water Appropriations Bill. Nevertheless, the
Bush Administration requested $4 million this year to complete
the RNEP study because it recognizes how essential this program is
to national security. Despite the critical importance to
national security of completing the RNEP study, the House version
of this year's Energy and Water Appropriations Bill (H.R. 2419)
again fails to provide funding. The Senate version of the Energy
and Water Appropriations Bill did accede to the Bush
Administration's request. On October 25, 2005, however, Senator
Pete Domenici (R-NM) announced that funding for the RNEP study will
be dropped from the Energy and Water Appropriations Bill by
House-Senate conferees.[9]
Recognizing the
critical nature of the research into weapons to destroy deeply
buried targets, the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee has
decided to initiate a new research program to replace the RNEP
program. This new program is established under the Air Force by the
Department of Defense Appropriations Bill (H.R. 2863) and is called
the Hard and Deeply Buried Target Defeat System. This new $4
million program will examine both nuclear and conventional options
for fielding a weapon with a demonstrated capability to destroy
deeply buried and hardened targets, which makes it consistent with
the integrated targeting policy called for in the draft Doctrine
for Joint Nuclear Operations.
Funding for this new
program will be set later this fall when House and Senate defense
appropriators meet in conference to draft a final version of
the Defense Appropriations Bill. As the appropriators convene
the conference committee, they should recognize that the option
adopted by the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee is the
best approach because it circumvents the blocks put in place by the
House Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee and better
assures that any weapons produced from this research will meet the
requirements of the draft Doctrine for Joint Nuclear
Operations.
The appropriators also
need to understand that the Hard and Deeply Buried Target Defeat
System research program is a new program under the Air Force and,
given the initial costs and the broader mandate, should therefore
provide more robust funding to the Air Force than the Bush
Administration sought for continuing the RNEP program.
Specifically, the Defense Appropriations Bill should provide $18
million to the Air Force for the Hard and Deeply Buried Target
Defeat System research program.
Once it has taken this
action, Congress needs to press for similar modernization efforts
across the nuclear force in order to support the kind of
integrated targeting plan that is envisioned by the draft
Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations. This is necessary
because the integrated targeting plan is at the heart of an
effective damage limitation strategy that will protect U.S.
security in today's setting. Such a modernization effort will
ensure a nuclear force that complements the conventional offensive
and defensive forces to provide a balanced strategic posture in the
future.
Step #3: Authorize and
fund periodic upgrades in the nuclear command and control
system.
The draft Doctrine for
Joint Nuclear Operations directs that nuclear command and control
must not be interrupted. This depends on a survivable and agile
system. Congress can ensure that nuclear command and control is
fully capable by authorizing continuing improvements in the
system and funding the programs necessary to put these improvements
in the field.
The following three
specific improvements in the nuclear command and control system
should be of particular interest to Congress:
-
Synchronizing the nuclear
command and control system with those used for conventional
strike weapons and defensive systems. Given the destructive
power of nuclear weapons, it is necessary to maintain separate
command and control systems and arrangements for nuclear
weapons. On the other hand, the integrated targeting arrangements
in the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations will necessitate
coordinating nuclear operations with conventional strike and
defensive operations. This in turn requires the
synchronization of the separate command and control systems and
arrangements of all three to improve combat coordination and
efficiency.[10]
-
Protecting against
EMP. As described
earlier, a congressionally appointed commission reported to
Congress in 2004 that U.S. military forces are potentially
vulnerable to nuclear-generated EMP. Heritage Senior Policy Analyst
Jack Spencer recommended that a portion of U.S. military
assets be retrofitted to protect against EMP, following the release
of the commission's report.[11] Given that
nuclear command and control, by definition, must be able to operate
in a nuclear environment, protecting it against the effects of EMP
should be the highest priority in the retrofitting
process.
-
Maintaining a rapid response
capability. A clear
priority in the draft Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations is to
obtain a nuclear force capable of holding time-sensitive targets at
risk. This means that nuclear weapons in the U.S. arsenal must be
able to strike at mobile targets with both high precision and very
short delivery times to the target. This capability depends on
a sophisticated and nimble command and control system for operating
these weapons.
Step #4: Maintain and
modernize the delivery systems of all three legs of the nuclear
triad.
Nuclear weapons systems in
the U.S. arsenal consist of more than the nuclear weapons
themselves. In fact, the Cold War strategic nuclear triad is
defined more closely by the type of delivery system than it is by
the type of warhead. The ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers currently in the
arsenal were all designed and built during the Cold War and are
continuing to age. In the short term, Congress should ensure that
the service life of these delivery systems is extended. However, in
the long term, Congress must start considering new designs for
the next generation of ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers.
Step #5: Hold hearings on
the need to maintain sufficient alert levels of operationally
deployed nuclear forces.
As the draft Doctrine for
Joint Nuclear Operations points out, high states of readiness
for the operationally deployed nuclear force are necessary to
respond quickly to no-notice nuclear attacks against the U.S., its
forces, or its allies. September 11 demonstrated that surprise
attacks are a hallmark of today's world. Regrettably, the DOD
is coming under increasing pressure from arms control
advocates to de-alert U.S. nuclear forces.[12]
Congress should hold hearings on the matter of de-alerting, both to
allow civilian and military leaders in the DOD to educate the
public on why maintaining sufficient alert levels is critical
to U.S. security and to allow the DOD leadership to explain why
sufficient alert levels do not mean that U.S. nuclear weapons are
either on a sort of hair trigger or easily launched by
accident.
Step #6: Hold hearings on
the requirements for nuclear stability in a proliferated
setting.
The most difficult nuclear
security problem facing the Bush Administration and Congress
today is to assess how to maintain stability in an environment
in which more than two nuclear-armed states are contending with
each other and may resort to using their weapons. Cold War thinking
regarding nuclear stability focused on the U.S.-Soviet rivalry and
was dominated by analysis looking at the potential for two-sided
conflicts, but nuclear proliferation is a part of today's
reality.
This is a particularly
pressing issue in important theaters, especially in East Asia,
South Asia, and the Middle East. If adoption of the Doctrine for
Joint Nuclear Operations is an important starting point in
determining how to manage theater nuclear operations, it needs to
be accompanied by an analytical process that examines the
requirements for reducing the likelihood of nuclear
conflicts within these theaters. Policymakers must begin to
grapple with the complexities that are derived from nuclear
multipolarity.
Conclusion
In the 1950s and
1960s, the Department of Defense, with congressional support, put
enormous effort into creating an effective strategic nuclear
deterrent. This initial burst of creativity proved essential to
deterring the Soviet Union and keeping the peace for the decades
that followed. During the 1990s, the nation's nuclear
infrastructure suffered from neglect, and the competitive edge
was lost.
Responding to the
strategic neglect that existed at the time, in 2002, the Department
of Defense released a description of a congressionally
mandated study called the Nuclear Posture Review. This
forward-looking study recognizes that the U.S. strategic forces
inherited from the Cold War are not well positioned to assure U.S.
friends and allies regarding their security and to dissuade, deter,
and defeat today's would-be enemies. The Nuclear Posture
Review also seeks to restore the competitive edge in U.S. strategic
programs by establishing a new strategic triad. This new strategic
triad includes offensive forces, defensive forces, and a robust
infrastructure consisting of both nuclear and conventional
systems.
With a draft version of
the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations now in hand, the
Department of Defense is poised to take a major step forward in
reinvigorating U.S. nuclear policies and programs. This document
merits the support of the American people, and DOD leaders should
approve it as soon as possible.
When nuclear weapons are
the issue, the stakes for national security are extremely high.
Congress must recognize that when the new Doctrine for Joint
Nuclear Operations is approved, military commanders will have new
requirements to meet regarding nuclear planning and operations.
Under these circumstances, Congress must ensure that these military
commanders have the tools to execute the missions that they
are assigned.
Specifically, Congress
must modernize the nuclear arsenal in ways that will dissuade,
deter, and if necessary defeat the kinds of enemies that the U.S.
might face today and tomorrow. This means freeing the scientific
and engineering communities to explore advanced concepts for
strategic and nuclear forces and removing barriers to researching,
developing, testing, and ultimately deploying new weapons. Finally,
it means that Congress must familiarize itself with the
complexities involved in managing nuclear stability in a world
in which nuclear proliferation is a reality. Congress must not
shirk this most important duty to the American people.
Baker
Spring is F. M. Kirby Research Fellow in National
Security Policy in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute
for International Studies at The Heritage
Foundation.
[1]U.S.
Department of Defense, "Special Briefing on the Nuclear Posture
Review," news transcript, January 9, 2002, at
www.defenselink.mil/cgi-bin/dlprint.cgi (January 10,
2002).
[2]Joint
Chiefs of Staff, Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations,
Joint Publication 3-12, Final Coordination (2), March 15,
2005.
[3]Walter
Pincus, "Pentagon Revises Nuclear Strike Plan," The Washington
Post, September 11, 2005, p. A1.
[4]U.S.
Department of Energy, Recommendations for the Nuclear Weapons
Complex of the Future: Report of the Nuclear Weapons Complex
Infrastructure Task Force, Draft Final Report, July 13,
2005.
[5]For
a detailed argument in favor of the impermissibility of the use of
nuclear weapons, see Charles J. Moxley, Jr., Nuclear Weapons and
International Law in the Post Cold War World (Lanham, Md.:
Austin & Winfield, 2000).
[6]Pincus,
"Pentagon Revises Nuclear Strike Plan," p. A1.
[8]John
S. Foster, Jr., Ph.D., et al., Executive Report, Vol.
1 of Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United
States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, 2004, at
www.house.gov/hasc/
openingstatementsandpressreleases/108thcongress/04-07-22emp.pdf
(October 20, 2005).
[9]Pete
Domenici, "Domenici: NREP Funds Dropped from Appropriations Bill,"
Press Release,
October 25, 2005.
[10]For
a detailed description of the requirements for the synchronization
of offensive and defensive systems in particular, including for
command and control arrangements, see General John L. Piotrowski,
"Strategic Synchronization: The Relationship Between Strategic
Offense and Defense," Heritage Foundation Ballistic Missile
Defense Technical Studies Series, Study No. 1, 2002.
[11]Jack
Spencer, "The Electromagnetic Pulse Commission Warns of an Old
Threat with a New Face," Heritage Foundation Backgrounder
No. 1784, August 3, 2004, pp. 56, at www.heritag