Social Security is the best-loved American
government program, but how it works and is financed is almost
completely unknown. Most Americans have a vague idea that they pay
taxes for their benefits and that their benefits are linked somehow
to their earnings. Many also know that the program is in trouble
and needs to be "fixed" sometime soon to deal with the retirement
of the baby boomers. Beyond this, their knowledge of the facts is
severely limited and often colored by rumors and stories.
Most
politicians exploit this lack of knowledge and limit their
statements on Social Security to platitudes and vague promises. To
make matters worse, reformers tend either to be content with
similar platitudes or to speak in such detail that few outside the
policy world can understand what they are saying. The simple fact
is that today's Social Security is extremely complex, and any
reform plan that is more than fine words will be similarly
complex.
This
paper attempts to simplify the reform debate by comparing various
plans (including the current system) side by side. Each of the six
sections of this paper compares how the current system and the
reform plans handle a specific subject. Only reform plans that have
been scored by Social Security's Office of the Chief Actuary are
included in this comparison, using numbers contained in the 2003
Report of the Social Security Trustees. The six corresponding
tables contain general reviews of aspects of the current system and
the reform plans, with more details in the footnotes.
While looking at just one or two sections
of special interest may be tempting, this approach would probably
be misleading. For the best effect, each section should be
considered together with the other sections in order to form a
complete picture of the plan. Using simply one section by itself to
judge an entire plan will not yield an accurate result.
The Current
System
Social Security currently pays an inflation-indexed
monthly retirement and survivors' benefit, based on a worker's
highest 35 years of earnings. Past earnings are indexed for average
wage growth in the economy before calculating the benefit. The
benefit formula is progressive, meaning that lower-income workers
receive a benefit equal to a higher proportion of their average
income than upper-income workers receive. The program is expected
to continue to collect more in payroll taxes than it pays out in
benefits until about 2018.
Unused payroll taxes are borrowed by the
federal government and replaced by special-issue Treasury bonds.
After the system begins to pay out more than it receives, the
federal government will cover the resulting cash flow deficits by
repaying the special-issue Treasury bonds out of general revenues.
When the bonds run out in about 2042, Social Security benefits will
automatically be reduced to a level equal to incoming revenue. This
is projected to require a 27 percent reduction in 2042, with
greater reductions after that.
Reforming Social
Security
Both the current Social Security system and every plan to
reform it will require significant amounts of general revenue money
in addition to the amount collected through payroll taxes. In
short, both the current system and all known reform plans would
have to find the necessary general revenues from some combination
of four sources: borrowing additional money, collecting more taxes
than needed to fund the rest of the government, reducing other
government spending, or reducing Social Security benefits more than
is called for under either current law or any of the reform
plans.
The
most important thing to remember is that the existing Social
Security system and the reform plans all face this problem. This is
not a weakness limited to personal retirement account (PRA) plans
or any other reform plan. The only questions are when the cash flow
deficits begin and how large they will be.
Seven Important
Rules for Real Social Security Reform
It would be wise for reformers to follow a set of general
principles to ensure that any Social Security reform both resolves
Social Security's problems and provides workers with greater
retirement security. This comparison of plans makes no effort to
examine whether the Social Security reform plans included in it
meet or violate any or all of the principles.
- The benefits of
current retirees and those close to retirement must not be
reduced. If the benefits of younger workers cannot be
maintained, then they should have the opportunity to make up the
difference through a personal retirement account.
- The rate of
return on a worker's Social Security taxes must be
improved.
- Americans must
be able to use Social Security to build a nest egg for the
future.
- Personal
retirement accounts must guarantee an adequate minimum
income.
- Workers should
be allowed to fund their Social Security personal retirement
accounts with some of their existing payroll tax
dollars.
- For currently
employed workers, participation in the new accounts must be
voluntary.
- Any Social
Security reform plan must be realistic, cost-effective and reduce
the unfunded liabilities of the current system.
Conclusion
In the long run, a reform plan should do more than just preserve
the current Social Security system with its many flaws. At a
minimum, it should allow workers to pass on some of what they
earned and paid in Social Security taxes to improve their spouses'
retirement benefits. It should also allow workers the flexibility
to use their entire account for retirement benefits or take a
smaller retirement benefit and use the balance to pay for a
grandchild's college education, start a small business, or pass on
money to a later generation.
Social Security should not be reformed or
"saved" for its own sake, but only if it more effectively provides
the benefits workers need at a price they can afford.
David C.
John is Research Fellow in Social Security and Financial
Institutions in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy
Studies at The Heritage Foundation.