As the number of
unemployed workers in the labor force continues to decline, the
focus on discouraged workers and other individuals marginally
attached to the labor force has increased.
Yet even when
these classes of workers are considered to be among the unemployed,
overall unemployment has still dropped over the past year.
Chart:
Alternative Unemployment Rates
The
Discouraged
Discouraged workers are workers that have not sought
employment in the past four weeks because they believe there is no
work for them. They are not counted as unemployed and are
considered only marginally in the labor force by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. The number of discouraged workers was
slightly higherin December 2003, 433,000, than in December 2002,
403,000.
Adding the
December discouraged workers to the total number of unemployed
raises the unemployment rate from 5.7 to 6.0 percent. This
rate is below the December 2002 rate of 6.3 percent, and the rate
has steadily declined since the passage of the 2003 tax
cuts.
By comparison, in
President Clinton's third year in office, this rate was 6.0 percent
in June and declined to 5.5 percent by the end of 1995.
President Bush's combined rate was 6.8 percent in June and declined
to 6.0 by the end of 2003.
The number of men
counted as discouraged workers has fallen from 250,000 in December
of 2002 to 212,000 a year later. The number of discouraged
women workers spiked upward from 154,000 to 221,000 over the same
period.
Marginally Attached to the Labor
Force
The BLS reports
that there has been no significant change to the number of
"marginally attached" workers from 2002 to 2003, with about 1.5
million workers. These are workers who have looked for work
within the year and want to work but have not looked for work in
the past four weeks.
As a consequence
they are removed from the full labor force and not considered
unemployed. Adding marginally attached workers, of whom
discouraged workers are a subset, increased the unemployment
rate. However, about two-thirds of these workers haven't
looked for work because of a variety of factors ranging from school
enrollment to family responsibilities.
For December, the
unemployment rate including marginally attached workers was 6.7
Percent. This is down from 7.4 percent in June and below that
of 6.9 percent a year ago. Again, looking at President
Clinton's third year in office the unemployment rate with
marginally attached workers was 6.9 percent in June and declined to
6.4 percent in December.