The Obama administration faces its first real Latin American
crisis. Let's hope Team Obama is aware of the goals of democracy's
new-found but fickle friends.
Honduras presents the Obama administration with its first real
Latin American crisis.
Since the 1981 return of civilian rule, Honduras has regarded
itself as a friend of the U.S. In the '80s, it allowed the
Nicaraguan Resistance or "Contras" to operate from base camps
there. It lent troops for Operation Iraqi Freedom and continues to
support a small U.S. military presence on Honduran soil. Economic
ties are strong.
Now those cordial relations are in jeopardy.
On June 28, Honduran President Manuel Zelaya was expelled from
the country for multiple constitutional violations. The U.S.
quickly joined an international chorus deploring the expulsion,
denouncing as a military coup what the Honduran Supreme Court and
Congress called for a defense of their constitution and rule of
law.
The new Honduran government says it wants to end polarization,
restore order, and move to elections in November, but the
international community demands Zelaya's restoration to power.
The U.S., anxious to send a pro-democracy message, finds itself
running with a dangerous crowd -- one whose agenda is not
necessarily dedicated to defending democracy.
Begin with ex-President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya -- a marginal victor
in 2005. Formerly a centrist, this erratic politico morphed into a
disciple of leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. His
popularity plunged over the next three years, as the nation was
battered by rising crime, poverty and economic recession. All the
while, Zelaya's presidential clock was ticking. Honduran presidents
are limited to one four-year term. Nonetheless, Zelaya launched an
unconstitutional re-election bid that provoked his ouster.
In backing Zelaya to the hilt, Venezuela's elective-dictator
Hugo Chavez has pitched the crisis to its current level. He did
much the same back in March 2007 when he threatened war against
Colombia. Yet, Chavez is no champion of democracy -- at home or
abroad.
Since pushing through a referendum that removed Venezuela's
presidential term limits, Chavez has unleashed a ferocious campaign
against the domestic opposition, elected officials, and political
and economic liberty.
Two weeks ago when the Iranian people rose in protest against
electoral fraud, Chavez unswervingly aligned with the repressive
Ayatollahs, dismissing the massive outpouring of protest as a CIA
plot.
Then there's Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, arguably the least
democratic president in Latin America. Thanks to a pact with
another corrupt Nicaraguan president, a constitutional change that
allowed him to win office with 37% of the vote, and stolen
municipal elections in November 2008, Ortega still claims a seat at
the democracy table.
Ortega undoubtedly harbors a festering vendetta against
pro-American Honduras. A relic of the '80s Sandinista regime,
Ortega sees this crisis as pay-back time for Honduras' sins of
supporting the Contras.
Another dutiful friend of Zelaya is United Nations General
Assembly President Miguel D'Escoto Brockman. Formerly Ortega's
foreign minister during the Sandinista era, he was recently rescued
from oblivion by his master in Managua and put up for his U.N.
post.
His Excellency Mr. D'Escoto has duly denounced the coup and
volunteered to accompany Zelaya when he returns to Honduras.
Perhaps these actions will encourage critics to overlook His
Excellency's spendthrift habits and indulgence in nepotism.
Also flying democratic colors is Cuban dictator Raul Castro,
leader of a country without a free election since 1949. On June 29,
in a moment worthy of Gabriel Garcia Marquez's magical realism,
Fidel's younger brother lashed out at the "the fascists" in
Honduras who had the audacity to "trample on the political rights
of Hondurans." Rated "unfree" by Freedom House, Castro's Cuba holds
over 200 political prisoners, denies freedom of speech, and
preserves a state security system to defend its totalitarian
regime.
Finally, another senior hemispheric leader dead set against the
"illegal" Honduran regime is Organization of American States (OAS)
Secretary General Miguel Insulza. Propping up Zelaya in Honduras
can only advance El Panzer's concerted effort to bring communist
Cuba back into the fold of the democratic OAS.
Insulza may also calculate that embracing "democracy," in the
person of Zelaya, can mute criticism of his silence while the
strongmen of Venezuela, Bolivia, and Nicaragua quietly dismantled
political opposition, free media, and civil society.
These considerable external forces are demanding that Zelaya be
repatriated, perhaps as early as July 3. At that point, he could
wind up in either the presidential palace or prison.
The scenarios are far from certain. No accords are in place.
Poor as they may be, Hondurans have pride and toughness. Like all
nations they don't like being told by outsiders what to do or
think. Violence, encouraged by outsiders, could erupt.
Whatever course events take, let's hope, the Obama team is
mindful of the not-so hidden agendas of democracy's new-found but
fickle friends.
Ray
Walser, Ph.D., is Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America
in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies,
a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies at Heritage.