It's not always enjoyable to look in a mirror. But we can learn
a lot when we do. Perhaps it's time for the United States to give
it a try.
As the nation's economy struggles, with new reports of job
losses, bank failures and shaky consumer confidence, our mirror
should be Japan, a country that's also battling a fading
economy.
In fact, President Barack Obama has already encouraged Americans
to consider Japan's experience a warning. Speaking on Feb. 9 about
the recession, he said, "We saw this happen in Japan in the 1990s,
where they did not act boldly and swiftly enough. As a consequence,
they suffered what was called the lost decade, where essentially,
for the entire '90s, they did not see any significant economic
growth."
But as Asia expert Derek Scissors points out, Japan's struggles
have been going on longer than that. Japan's been sinking for some
17 years. In current yen (the country's currency) Japan's economy
appears to have been smaller in the fourth quarter of 2008 than it
was in the fourth quarter of 1995. Further contraction is predicted
this year.
Scissors notes that some of our biggest problems mirror Japan's.
For decades, the government in Tokyo encouraged exports to boost
economic growth. Meanwhile, in recent years the American economic
boom has been fueled by inexpensive imports and even imported
savings. Much of Washington's ballooning debt is financed by
Treasury bills sold to foreign investors, led by China.
"If the U.S does not fundamentally change its tax, spending and
regulatory policies," Scissors and co-author J.D. Foster warn in a
recent paper, "this nation risks replaying Japan's two lost
decades, with all that entails."
Unfortunately, we've already taken a step down the wrong path,
by mistakenly copying Japan when we ought to be moving in the
opposite direction.
The near-trillion dollar stimulus package Washington passed last
month is comparable to the big infrastructure programs funded by
Japan's government throughout the 1990s. Japan is now a country
littered with "roads to nowhere," but all that concrete failed to
drive an economic turnaround.
Unfortunately, American leaders such as House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi are already hinting they may throw even more "stimulus"
money around this year. There's a better approach.
The U.S. government unintentionally encourages imports because
of its tax policies. Washington maintains the second-highest
corporate tax rate among industrialized countries. That makes
American companies less competitive and encourages them to move
production and even headquarters overseas. That, of course, leads
to lost jobs and lost revenues.
Further, the U.S. tax code discourages savings by applying high
marginal tax rates on every dollar stashed away. That's a key
reason Americans save less than people in other industrialized
countries, and it explains why we need to import so much investment
capital.
"Whether it's Japanese trade surpluses or American trade
deficits, large, persistent international trade imbalances are
truly unsustainable," Scissors and Foster conclude. That's the
message our leaders need to hear, so they can change American
federal policies and make our economy more competitive.
There was a time, not long ago, when books were written about
how Japan would dominate the planet someday. Yet while the country
remains wealthy, it can no longer aspire to global economic
leadership.
That's a fate that the United States must avoid. We've been the
engine driving the global economy for decades. For our own sake,
and the rest of the world's sake, we must retain that role.
A good, long look in the mirror -- and taking the right steps
now -- will allow us to do just that.
Ed
Feulner is president of The Heritage Foundation.