In The Post-American World, Fareed Zakaria
offers American policy makers an important perspective. He aims to
illuminate the new world that U.S. foreign policy must navigate,
and here, he is largely on target. His grand conclusions, however,
miss the mark.
The central premise of Zakaria's book is revealed in the title.
Today's world is, indeed, a vastly different place than it was a
few decades ago. The "rise of the rest" is an elegant, non
threatening way to describe the change. The United States will
remain, as Zakaria calls it, "the single most important player in
the twenty-first century." The changes are relative. But they are
changes that America must acknowledge and respond to if it is to
continue its leadership role in Asia and across the globe.
Those grabbing Zakaria's book on a rush through one of Asia's
gleaming airports may be forgiven for assuming it forecasts
America's downfall. Far from it, Zakaria dwells at some length on
America's resiliency and continuing predominance. In a section
analyzing "America's Long Run," he notes that "the central feature
of Britain's decline -- irreversible economic deterioration -- does
not really apply to the United States today."
Zakaria points out that, except for the extraordinary period of
American dominance in the post-World War II 1940s and 1950s, the
U.S. economy has held steady, accounting for about a quarter of
global output for more than 100 years. He adds that by 2025, "most
estimates suggest that the U.S. economy will still be twice the
size of China's in terms of nominal GDP."
The writer repeatedly harkens to America's great strengths --
most prominently, its vibrant demography and openness to
immigration. He also neatly takes apart some of the most widely
cited threats, from the changes in its economy to the engineering
deficit to the expense of the Iraq War.
The central challenge for America, he argues, is political. It
is whether Washington can adjust to the rise of the rest. He's
right.
Zakaria skewers the state of American politics as "ceaseless,
virulent debate about trivia -- politics as theater -- and very
little substance, compromise, and action." America does seem
saddled with a political class incapable of making the tough
choices on immigration, energy policy, health care, entitlement
spending, and a number of other critical areas.
More central to his argument however -- but, curiously enough,
only briefly touched on in his book -- is the potential abandonment
of America's commitment to free trade. One of America's two parties
has turned almost completely protectionist, judging by several
recent Congressional votes on free trade pacts and the campaign
statements of their Presidential candidates.
Unfortunately, in a part of the book where I found myself in
most vigorous agreement, Zakaria takes a swipe at the organization
I work for. He identifies The Heritage Foundation as part of the
political problem. The Heritage Foundation is certainly different
from The Brookings Institution and the other organization he cites
and with which he is affiliated, the Council on Foreign
Relations.
But all think tanks have a world view. To believe that some
groups are objectively scientific and therefore more constructive
is naïve. Heritage is consciously and transparently a part of
the American conservative movement with all the philosophical
background that entails, from Friedrich Hayek to Russell Kirk to
Milton Friedman. To identify our mission with destructive
Washington partisanship is grossly unfair. Ironically enough, it is
precisely the sort of politics Zakaria decries.
Recognizing the reality of the world we live in today is this
book's fine contribution to the discussion of American foreign
policy. But when Zakaria moves into solutions, he loses his
footing. He essentially advocates a value-less American foreign
policy. The problem with this is that values are reality, too.
This is especially the case for the United States. Its foreign
policy is value-laden for a purpose. Americans are involved in the
world because they think they can make it a better place. Observers
may judge them right or wrong, but there it is. Take that away, and
you take America out of the equation.
To solve America's 21st century challenges, Zakaria zeros in on
the geopolitics of the 19th century. In a recommendation entitled
"Be Bismarck not Britain," he urges America to "engage with all the
great powers," including China, as opposed to trying to balance its
rise. There is nothing wrong with "engaging" China. America has too
many interests at stake in the relationship not to engage.
But the analogy is a stretch. The U.S. is not Bismarck's
Germany, in Bismarck's Europe, in Bismarck's era. To compare
relationships with Japan, Australia, and India to China is to
ignore the moral content of American foreign policy, a concept that
would strike Bismarck as entirely foreign.
China is a dictatorship. Many, like the Chinese themselves, call
it "Communist". Analysts in the West have now taken to calling it
"Leninist" to account for the loss of its Marxist economic content.
Yet Zakaria conceives of China as Confucian.
This is a convenient way around the problem, except for the fact
that the Chinese government is not Confucian. The Communist Party
has ruled China now for nearly 60 years. In an earlier era, the
party ruthlessly destroyed anything associated with its pre-Maoist
past, including Confucianism. Communist leaders today do not cite
Confucius as rationale for their state.
They cite good-ole Marxism-Leninism-Mao Zedong Thought -- with a
bit of "Deng Xiaoping Theory". And on the matter that most drives
observers to conceive of alternative ideological support for the
Peoples' Republic of China -- practical economic reforms -- it is
worth noting that Confucius was not a fan of the merchant
class.
Zakaria's willingness to "de-value" foreign policy leads him to
explicitly challenge American human rights policy. He calls it
hypocritical and recommends that the U.S. accept that other
countries are as justified as it is to make exceptions to a
strictly rights-based approach. But there is a great difference
between a policy exception and a policy norm. And for China,
establishing close relationships with the world's most odious
regimes is not the exception; it is part of the rule.
Revealingly, Zakaria cites American exceptions as "Taiwan and
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia," and China's "exceptions" as "North
Korea and Burma." Taiwan and Pakistan are democracies. Admittedly,
Saudi Arabia is, in fact, a strategic exception for America. As for
India's exceptions, any comparison of the criticism it gets over
Burma compared to what China gets would demonstrate that the U.S.
is extraordinarily tolerant of its sister democracy's strategic
need.
The U.S. and Chinese governments have vastly different value
systems. As long as this is the case, the U.S.-China relationship
will necessarily be restricted to a series of strategic,
narrowly-structured accommodations. The U.S. relationship with
India and other democracies in Asia, on the other hand, proceed
from a foundation of shared values. And as a result, their
potential is virtually unlimited. This is as much reality as
anything else in Zakaria's book.
Zakaria ends on a positive note. He references President
Reagan's optimism. And he recalls the warm atmosphere that welcomed
him to America. "For America to thrive in this new and challenging
era," he concludes, "... it should be a place that is as inviting
and exciting to the young student who enters the country today" as
it was for him a generation ago. On that sentiment we can agree
wholeheartedly.
Walter Lohman is
senior research fellow for Southeast Asia in the Asian Studies
Center at the Heritage Foundation.