President Bush finds himself in a bit of a "proliferation
pickle" as he begins an historic visit to South Asia this week. The
United States wants to deepen strategic relations with India, while
New Delhi wants Washington to overlook its nuclear-weapons
program.
The challenge for Bush is to advance ties between the world's
largest democracies while holding together the tattered U.N. system
for limiting the spread of nuclear weapons and technology,
especially the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
First, a little background: During Indian Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh's visit to Washington Last July, the two sides
agreed to expand cooperation in a number of areas, including
defense and space. Surprisingly, the meeting also proposed nuclear
collaboration.
Under the agreement, America would supply India with civilian
nuclear technology; India would place its civilian nuclear
facilities under international (i.e., International Atomic Energy
Agency) monitoring.
But that announcement caused tremors, especially in Congress,
because U.S. law prohibits sharing nuclear materials/technology
with nations that haven't signed the NPT or possess nukes. (India
hasn't signed, and has 150-200 nuclear weapons).
Plus, the agreement wouldn't put India's nuclear-weapons
facilities - or its prototype fast-breeder reactor - under
international safeguards. (Fast-breeders aren't great for
electricity, but are top-notch for producing plutonium for
weapons.
Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), a well-known nonproliferation
advocate, said: "If India is allowed to have a nuclear program that
is half safeguarded and half not, it will be ridiculed as
half-baked and would make a mockery of the IAEA and the NPT."
So why did the president sign off on such an accord, knowing
he'd face opposition from Congress, proliferation experts - and
standing American law?
Chalk it up to good, old-fashioned (proliferation) pragmatism.
Bush can't put the Indian nuclear genie back in the bottle - at
least for the moment. And a futile drive to try anyway - which
current U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy would seem to dictate
- causes problems for other U.S. national interests.
U.S. security policy, while not abandoning the NPT (which bans
the spread of nuclear weapons, not nuclear energy), must also
recognize a nuclear Iran or North Korea poses different dangers
than does democratic, peaceful India.
Moreover, improving relations with India will assist U.S.
efforts to stabilize South Asia, including Pakistan and
Afghanistan, fight global terrorism and balance China's growing
might. But a couple of other policy issues are at play as well.
Energy: India's population is 1.1 billion. Like China, it has an
insatiable - and growing - energy appetite. Today's high U.S. pump
prices have as much to do with spiking Indian/Chinese demand as
anything else.
India also produces significant greenhouse gases. India (and
China's) continued fossil-fuel use thus threatens global ecological
disaster. Clean, safe, economical nuclear energy for India makes
sense for all of us.
Iran: India buys billions of dollars in Iranian oil and natural
gas, refines 40 percent of Iran's domestic gasoline and still
craves a proposed $7 billion Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.
While India supported the U.S. earlier this month at the IAEA in
reporting Iran's nuclear program to the U.N. Security Council, New
Delhi's continued collaboration isn't guaranteed. Nuclear-energy
assistance could help India kick its Iranian energy habit, further
isolating intransigent Tehran.
Naturally, there are downsides, too. For starters, Pakistan sees
a zero-sum game in relation to its great rival - i.e., anything
that rewards India, punishes Pakistan. Islamabad, also a nuclear
weapons state and NPT non-signatory, is clamoring for equal
treatment.
Treating Pakistan differently could drive Islamabad further into
the Beijing's arms - and away from the West. But Pakistani nuclear
cooperation is more problematic - the country has a serious problem
of domestic Islamic radicalism/terrorism, and has made only halting
progress toward democracy. (India, of course, is the world's
largest democracy.)
And don't forget: Iran and North Korea will also be watching how
the Indian deal is cut.
So Bush has his work cut out for himself on his South Asian
sojourn. He has to convince the Indians that they must join the
international nuclear mainstream, fully separating its peaceful and
military nuclear programs.
Then the White House will have to convince Congress that
altering longstanding nuclear-nonproliferation law is essential to
managing relations in the new security environment. Getting
Congress on board is doable, but no small task.
Some Indian skeptics, suspicious of Washington in general, will
also belabor the deal from the New Delhi-side, so implementing any
nuclear agreement will likely be slow.
It's all worth it, though. Strengthening ties with India, a
nation of growing importance in Asia - and globally - will pay
dividends for American interests well into the 21st century.
Peter
Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow. His
book, "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, WMD and Rogue States," is
just out.