Only a few years ago, it would have been considered the deal of the
century. In 1997, then-FCC chairman Reed Hundt called it
"unthinkable."
Yet, when SBC's of AT&T was announced recently, it wasn't even the
deal of the week. The total sale price-$16 billion-was a third of
what Procter and Gamble only three days before. And
Hundt himself called it "no big deal." Within a few days,
Verizon announced its own plans to take over MCI.
While the acquisition was extensively reported in the media, the
initial reaction generally was one of nostalgia rather than
concern. Sure, there was scattered hand wringing about the old Bell
monopoly being recreated. And the combination will make SBC the
largest telecommunications company in the U.S. But, for the most
part, the deal simply spurred reflection on how far we have come
since telephony's monopoly days.
For those under 30 or so, it's hard to imagine what that era was
like. For most of the 20th century, the Bell System, as AT&T
was known, controlled all long-distance telephone service in the
U.S., and the vast majority of local traffic. "Ma Bell" was the
telephone company, fittingly represented by its New York stock
exchange symbol: simply T.
The Bell System was broken up in 1984, when AT&T was forced
to spin off its local service to seven regional "Baby Bell"
companies, including what is now SBC. This makes SBC's deal a bit
of a "Mother and Child" reunion, as one newspaper put it. But the telephone family will never again be
what it was. In telecommunications, as elsewhere, you can't go home
again.
The fact is that AT&T is a shadow of its former self. Rather
than a returning matriarch, Ma Bell is more a frail, aging parent
who no longer can take care of herself. AT&T's deterioration
has been steady and remarkable: From more than 365,000 employees in
1985, it has only 47,000 today. AT&T no longer dominates
long-distance calling: It has only some 20 percent of that market.
The long-distance market is itself shrinking as a stand-alone
industry, as consumers increasingly receive their long-distance
services with other services, such as wireless, as part of a
bundle. Most of AT&T's operations in more robust parts of the
telecom world, notably wireless and broadband Internet access, have
been sold off to others.
Nor is SBC likely to make itself into a new Ma Bell. Like the
other Bell children, Verizon, BellSouth and SBC, it is facing
increasing competitive challenges. The number of subscriber lines
they serve is actually shrinking, as Americans move over to
emerging Internet and wireless services. And cable TV firms have
stolen a march on the Bells in broadband connections, with some
two-thirds of the market.
So what comes next? The SBC-AT&T deal now faces a gauntlet
of regulatory approvals, from the Federal Communications
Commission, the Department of Justice, and dozens of state
regulators. It's unlikely any will reject the deal. But the process
could take a year or more-and regulators could use the process to
impose their own wish lists of regulations on SBC-from subsidies
for favored groups to increased investment in specified areas.
For the average American, however, the SBC deal is unlikely to
mean much. Consumers may be better off if SBC can put AT&T's
assets to better use than has AT&T's current management (a low
hurdle). But overall, the trends in telecommunications are likely
to stay the same. Today's telecom industry is becoming increasingly
competitive and diverse, to the benefit of consumers. Far from
threatening those trends, SBC's acquisition of AT&T underscores
them.
AT&T's demise, however, does provide an important lesson for
policy-makers. Despite much populist rhetoric about the power of
big corporations, AT&T's massive size gave it no protection
from the marketplace. In the end, AT&T had less value than a
razor-blade company. Competitive markets should work that way, and
do. That is the real news here.
James
Gattuso is a research fellow in regulatory policy at
The Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based
public policy research institute.