The
need for Washington to focus its attention on energy security and
diversification became clear as the war on terrorism began. The
U.S. should strongly oppose Iran's threatening military actions to
claim a larger portion of the energy-rich Caspian Sea. The Caspian
basin, a land-locked body of salt water bordered by Iran,
Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, harbors billions
of barrels of proven oil reserves and over 200 billion barrels of
potential reserves. The market value of that oil could exceed $5
trillion, according to some estimates. The sea also may hold up to
325 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Combined with Russia's
resources, by 2010 the region could supply up to one-half of the
energy resources now provided by the Middle East.
Iran, a known sponsor of terrorism, began
its aggressive campaign to claim a greater portion of the Caspian
Sea with actions that were a blatant violation of international
law. On July 23, 2001, an Iranian warship and two jets forced a
research vessel working for British Petroleum (BP)-Amoco in
Azerbaijan's Araz-Alov-Sharg field (60 miles north of Iranian
waters) out of the area. BP-Amoco immediately announced that it
would cease exploring that field and then withdrew its vessels.
Iran's leaders assert that it has
territorial and treaty rights to as much as 20 percent of the
Caspian Sea surface area and seabed, much more than its
long-recognized sector of about 12 percent to 14 percent. Tehran's
use of military forces to threaten the U.S.-British company in
Azerbaijan's sector jeopardizes, in addition to energy production
and security in the region, Western investments and economic
development.
The
Caspian Sea basin is expected to produce and export increasing
amounts of oil. This would benefit not only Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
and Turkmenistan, which depend almost exclusively on oil revenues,
but also Russia and Iran, which have major oil deposits in their
sectors of the seabed. For the West, oil from this region could
bypass the politically risky bottleneck of the Persian Gulf,
helping to lessen dependence on OPEC nations.
The
war against terrorism necessitates the protection of U.S. energy
and security interests. The provocative actions by Iran jeopardize
those interests. Moreover, as a state supporter of terrorism, Iran
is likely to use its energy-related revenues to support its
ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs. To
assure peace in the Caspian Sea region and protect U.S. interests,
the Bush Administration should:
- Call for the
demarcation of the Caspian Sea territorial boundaries along the
"median line" proposed by the Commonwealth of Independent
States. The Administration should make a strong call for
peace and security in the Caspian region and advise Tehran that it
should refrain from using military force to deter energy
exploration projects in the sectors of its neighbors.
- Seek a U.N.
Security Council resolution calling for the peaceful settlement of
the Caspian Sea disputes. The Administration should seek
support from U.S. allies in Europe, particularly Great Britain, who
also should demand that Iran refrain from any use of force. Russian
President Vladimir Putin has called for the peaceful settlement of
claims in the Caspian Sea and should involve Moscow in the drafting
of the U.N. resolution.
- Expand
Azerbaijan's military capabilities through its ties with NATO and
the Partnership for Peace (PFP). Azerbaijan would benefit
from the expertise of these other countries by learning how to
strengthen its ability to protect its borders. Programs could
include developing an integrated military-civilian air traffic
control system; developing and training its coast guard and border
guards; upgrading its command, control, communications, and
intelligence (C3I) systems to NATO standards; and developing
military interoperability with NATO.
- Expand political
and economic ties with Armenia. The Armenian military is
capable of disrupting the flow of oil from the Caspian Sea to ports
on the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Though the Administration
is correct in sanctioning Armenian companies for smuggling military
and dual-use technology to Iran, Armenia feels isolated and is
moving toward closer ties with Iran. The United States should work
to expand relations with Armenia in economic and security
areas.
Conclusion. Energy development in the
oil- and gas-rich Caspian Sea basin would help ensure energy
security--a key issue in the war against terrorism. It also would
promote the independence and economic development of post-Soviet
states in that region. But Iran's aggressive behavior last year
could threaten energy development by deterring foreign investment.
The United States should call on Iran to stop its aggressive
behavior, and it should mobilize its allies to work for a peaceful
settlement of the territorial disputes over the maritime borders of
the states bordering the Caspian Sea.
--Ariel Cohen,
Ph.D., is Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies in
the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies at The Heritage Foundation.