Developing and deploying a credible
defense against ballistic missiles for Americans now must become an
even higher national priority following revelations in the May 25,
1999, Cox Report that China soon will have the ability to threaten
the United States with new nuclear missiles based largely on stolen
or purchased U.S. technology. U.S. technology in the areas of
missile motors, nuclear warheads, nuclear reentry vehicle design,
and perhaps even warhead penetration aids are enabling China in the
near future to begin to field at least three new modern
intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of
reaching cities inside the United States.
According to the Cox Report, by as early
as 2002 China could begin deployment of its new 5,000-mile-range
DF-31 ICBM. From northern areas of China, this missile could reach
the states of Washington and Oregon. Around 2005, China could field
an 8,000-mile-range variant of this missile, the DF-41, which could
hit most of the continental United States. Both ICBMs are expected
to be modern, mobile missiles with solid-fuel motors, possibly
armed with multiple warheads. China also is expected to deploy a
submarine-launched ballistic missile similar to the DF-31. As the
Cox Report and an earlier report issued by the Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence make clear, China's missile program has
benefited significantly from U.S. technology. In fact, China's new
nuclear missiles may have not been possible without access to U.S.
solid-fuel rocket motor technology, modern small nuclear warhead
and nuclear reentry vehicle design, and missile-guidance
technology.
These disturbing revelations, especially
when viewed in light of the volatility of U.S.-China relations and
China's record of conducting provocative missile tests to pressure
Taiwan and the United States, make it imperative that the United
States develop and deploy a national missile defense (NMD) system
as soon as possible. This means the Clinton Administration should
abandon its adherence to the defunct 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile
(ABM) Treaty, which prevents the United States from developing
effective missile defenses, and increase funding for existing
national and theater missile defense programs.
To
counter China's new missiles, the United States should:
-
Perform an intercept test of an
upgraded version of the Navy Theater-Wide (NTW) missile defense
system in a way that responds to the threat from China.
The NTW system envisions 650 interceptor missiles to be
deployed on 22 existing U.S. Navy Aegis cruisers around the world.
Congress should require that the Department of Defense conduct an
intercept test of this version of the NTW system against a target
missile that has the flight characteristics of the long-range
missiles China currently has under development. Considering the
urgency of the threat, Congress also should require that this test
take place no later than the end of fiscal year (FY) 2001. Finally,
Congress should demand that the test demonstrate the capability of
the NTW system to intercept a modern, long-range missile in the
ascent phase of its flight before it can release multiple warheads,
decoys, and penetration aids.
-
Revive the space-based interceptor
(SBI) program.
The Clinton Administration canceled the SBI program in 1993.
The emerging missile threat from China reveals this cancellation
was a mistake. Congress should revive the SBI program by allocating
$250 million of the money to be made available to NMD programs in
FY 2000 to resuming the development of this technology. Congress
also should require that the Department of Defense conduct a test
of an SBI against a target missile that resembles the long-range
missiles China currently has under development. In this case, the
test should occur before the end of FY 2003. As with the test for
the upgraded version of the NTW system, this test should
demonstrate the capability to destroy long-range missiles in their
ascent phase.
The
Clinton Administration's policy of observing the ABM Treaty, in
effect, blocks much-needed progress in both the NTW and SBI
programs. In the latter case, there is no program at all. The
alarming developments regarding China's use of U.S. nuclear and
missile technology to modernize its strategic forces means there is
no time to waste. The United States urgently needs to develop and
deploy these two systems to address the emerging threat, or it runs
the risk of being blackmailed by China with missiles designed with
stolen U.S. technology.
Richard D. Fisher, Jr.,
is a former Director of The Asian Studies Center at The Heritage
Foundation. Baker
Spring is Senior Defense Policy Analyst in The Kathryn and
Shelby Cullom Davis International Studies Center at The Heritage
Foundation.