June 3, 2014 | Issue Brief on Terrorism
Iraq faces major political, national security, and economic challenges that should be addressed by the new government that emerges from the April 30 elections. Last year, more than 7,800 civilians and 1,050 members of the security forces were killed in political violence and terrorist attacks, making it Iraq’s deadliest year since 2008.
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), formerly known as Al-Qaeda in Iraq, has staged a bloody comeback and seized large swaths of territory in western Iraq. Its leader has threatened attacks against the U.S. homeland, and it is recruiting foreign fighters in Syria who could carry out this threat. Washington urgently needs to step up cooperation with Iraq to address this mounting threat.
Iraq’s internal security severely deteriorated after the total withdrawal of U.S. troops in December 2011. Al-Qaeda forces, which had been degraded by U.S. and Iraqi security forces in an intensive counterterrorism campaign from 2006 to 2011, made a bloody comeback. The abrupt U.S. military exit greatly weakened Iraqi counterterrorism, intelligence gathering, and special-operations capabilities, allowing al-Qaeda to revive in a more permissive environment.
The spillover of Syria’s increasingly sectarian civil war has also fueled rising sectarian tensions in Iraq. But Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also bears a considerable share of the blame for fostering a polarized political atmosphere that has pushed growing numbers of Sunnis into the arms of al-Qaeda. Within days of the U.S. troop withdrawal, he moved to consolidate his own power and that of his Shia coalition partners while marginalizing moderate Sunni political leaders.
Maliki also reneged on promises to support the Awakening movement, a Sunni tribal backlash against the brutal and indiscriminate violence of al-Qaeda. When Iraq’s Sunni Arab minority protested against the increasingly sectarian policies of Maliki’s Shia-dominated government, security forces forcibly suppressed the protests. ISIS exploited the sectarian crisis by seizing the city of Fallujah, a hotbed of Sunni Islamist insurgency. Iraq’s army, handicapped by the loss of training and support after the U.S. pullout, has been unable to recapture Fallujah in the face of stiff resistance from ISIS, which has imported sophisticated weapons captured in Syria.
Iraq’s April 30 elections, the first since the U.S. withdrawal, offer an opportunity for a fresh start in addressing Iraq’s festering problems. According to preliminary results, Maliki’s State of Law coalition won the largest share of parliamentary seats: 92 out of a total of 328. Maliki must now cobble together a multi-party coalition government. These negotiations are likely to be protracted: It took nine months to form Iraq’s last government after the 2010 elections.
The Obama Administration, which underestimated the threat posed by al-Qaeda in Iraq and overestimated Baghdad’s ability to address political and security challenges, should step up its engagement with Iraqi leaders to help them stabilize an increasingly precarious political situation and defeat ISIS. Specifically, Washington should:
Iraq is a crucial theater in the war against al-Qaeda and a key oil producer whose surging oil exports are increasingly important for the world oil market. The Obama Administration has neglected to adequately address the metastasizing threat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. It should work much more closely with the new Iraqi government to combat ISIS and implement a comprehensive national reconciliation strategy to drain away support for the Sunni insurgency and stabilize Iraq.—James Phillips is Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy, a department of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation.