Despite concerns over security and the potential for rigging,
Pakistanis turned out in decent numbers for today's parliamentary
elections, which early returns indicate favored the opposition
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim
League/Nawaz (PML/N). The election will help to end a year of
political instability and put Pakistan on the path toward
civilian-led rule, even as al-Qaeda works to destabilize the state
through a campaign of suicide bombings that have killed more than
800 people in the past six months. Washington should be prepared to
work with the new civilian government and recognize that President
Pervez Musharraf's role in governing the country is likely to
diminish as a new civilian government finds its footing.
A Rebuke to Extremists
Widespread concern over the potential for rigging overshadowed
the symbolic importance of today's election--the determination of
the Pakistani people to participate in a democratic process despite
concerted efforts by al-Qaeda and Taliban-backed extremists to
disrupt it through violence and intimidation. Some voters were
deterred by Saturday's attack in the Tribal Areas bordering
Afghanistan that killed nearly 50 people. However, the absence of
large-scale extremist violence on the day of the polling was a
victory for Pakistan's security forces, which had fanned out across
the country to protect voters. Around 20 people reportedly
were killed in sporadic election-related violence, and voting
was stopped in some polling stations after rival parties exchanged
gunfire. Such incidents are typical in Pakistani elections.
Expected success by the secular Pashtun Awami National Party
over the pro-Taliban Jamaat-i-Ulema-Islam (JUI), which has
ruled the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) since 2002, also
demonstrates Pakistani voters' opposition to recent attempts by
Taliban-backed militants to spread strict Islamic edicts in some
parts of the NWFP. Although the Pashtuns in the NWFP are more
religiously conservative than Pakistanis living in other parts of
the country, they opposed efforts to "Talibanize" society through
actions such as closing down girls' schools, burning video stores,
and intimidating barbers, and they blamed JUI for a failure to stop
the extremists.
Fears of Rigging Allayed
Recent polling by international non-governmental institutions
showed that Musharraf's popularity had plummeted in recent months,
particularly after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto,
and that support for the Pakistan Muslim League/Qaid-e-Azam (PML/Q)
had also taken a hit from its association with Musharraf and rising
economic hardships. The polling further showed that the PPP
commanded the most grassroots support and that a sympathy vote for
the slain leader's party was likely to push its votes even higher.
Still, many Pakistanis expected the Musharraf regime to rig the
vote in favor of his supporters in the PML/Q, a move that likely
would have sparked massive street protests.
If the election brings to power a PPP-led coalition that
includes Nawaz Sharif's party, President Musharraf's standing could
weaken considerably. PPP Co-Chairman Asif Zardari has indicated
that he would pursue a unity government and has not ruled out
working with Musharraf. However, major wins by Sharif's party
increases his political bargaining power and the likelihood that he
will press for steps, such as calling for the reinstatement of the
deposed judges, that would eventually lead to the ouster of
Musharraf. If the independent judges return to the bench, they will
likely rule against the legitimacy of Musharraf's presidency,
forcing him to resign and possibly even face charges of treason.
Although it is possible that the new Chief of Army Staff, General
Ashfaq Kiyani, could try to prevail on Asif Zardari to work with
Musharraf, Kiyani's inclination so far has been to distance himself
from civilian politics.
U.S. Position Will Affect Overall
Partnership with Pakistan
It is difficult to overstate the importance of today's election
in determining the future direction of Pakistan and how it will
cope with rising religious extremism in some parts of the country.
Pakistan's ability to overcome the challenge from religious
extremists will be a significant determinant of the ultimate
outcome of the struggle against al-Qaeda-inspired global
terrorism.
The U.S. image in Pakistan has been tarnished not only by a
perception that Washington has relied too heavily on military
operations in its war on terrorism but also by U.S. unwillingness
to criticize Musharraf for undermining civil society and the
democratic process over the past year. According to a recent poll
by the U.S. International Republican Institute, 73 percent of
Pakistanis believe religious extremism is a serious problem in
their country, but only 9 percent believe that Pakistan should
cooperate with the U.S. in the global war against
terrorism.
Pakistan has undergone dramatic changes in the past year, with
civil society raising its voice and Musharraf relying increasingly
on repressive measures to maintain his grip on power. The anger
toward Musharraf has fused with a visceral anti-American sentiment,
which has lowered Pakistani support for fighting terrorists,
particularly in the Tribal Areas. U.S. officials may view Musharraf
as the glue that holds Pakistan together, but a growing number of
Pakistanis view him as a source of instability. This disconnect
between U.S. policymakers and the broader Pakistani public
threatens to further erode Pakistani support for ties with the
U.S., especially if Washington is seen as clinging to Musharraf
when his party has been largely rejected at the polls.
It is therefore critical that the U.S. is seen as taking an
objective and impartial view of the elections based on its
assessment of the fairness of the process as reported by election
observers--from the U.S., Pakistan, Europe, and elsewhere--and a
thorough survey of Pakistani public opinion. The U.S. position on
these historic elections will reverberate for some time to come on
the overall quality of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. The U.S.
must begin to view Musharraf as a transitional figure and be ready
to deal with a more broad-based civilian government in
Pakistan.
Lisa Curtis is Senior
Research Fellow in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage
Foundation.