WASHINGTON, FEB. 28, 2007-The left pretty well
demonized the tax cuts of the past few years. Demagogued as "tax
cuts for the rich," they've been blamed for everything from
"runaway" deficits to "drastic" cuts in anti-poverty programs.
Fortunately, virtually all of the progressive conventional
wisdom on this subject is wrong. Here are 10 widely held myths
about the tax cuts -- and the facts that debunk them:
Myth 1. Tax revenues are too low.
Fact: The $2.41 trillion in revenues in 2006 amounted to
18.4 percent of our gross domestic product (GDP). That's higher
than historical averages going back 20, 40 and 60 years. It's
simply not true that Americans are under-taxed by historical
standards.
Myth 2. The tax cuts substantially reduced
revenues and expanded the budget deficit. Fact:Revenues in
2006 were a relatively modest $58 billion below the amount
projected before the tax cuts proposed by President Bush and
approved by Congress. Yet Washington spent $514
billion more in '06 than had been projected, turning
a budget surplus into a deficit.
Myth 3. Supply-side economics assumes all tax
cuts immediately pay for themselves. Fact: What's assumed is
that some, not necessarily all, lost revenues will be
replenished. Reducing tax rates encourages the taxed behavior,
and the increased economic activity offsets some lost revenues.
Whether a tax cut fully pays for itself depends on how much new
activity it generates.
Myth 4. Cuts in the capital gains tax don't pay
for themselves. Fact: Capital gains revenues doubled after the
2003 capital gains tax cuts, from $50 billion to $103 billion in
'06. Before the cuts, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
projected such revenues would rise much less sharply, to $68
billion.
Myth 5. The tax cuts are to blame for
projected budget deficits. Fact: Revenues already
are projected to jump to a record 23 percent of GDP by
2050; repealing the tax cuts would push revenues a bit higher, to
24 percent. CBO projects the massive deficits based on unrestrained
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid costs pushing
total spending from 20 percent of GDP to 38 percent or
more.
Myth 6. Raising tax rates is the best way to
raise revenue. Fact: Revenues correlate with economic growth,
not tax rates. Since 1952, the highest marginal income tax
rate has dropped from 92 percent to 35 percent. Yet revenues
remained constant at 18 percent of GDP. Thus, a growing economy
boosts revenues.
Myth 7. Reversing upper-income tax cuts would
raise substantial revenues. Fact: Expansion of the popular
child tax credit, marriage penalty relief, the 10
percent bracket and fix of the Alternative Minimum Tax will combine
this year to lower revenues by $114 billion. The maligned cuts in
capital gains, dividend and estate taxes are projected to reduce
revenues by less than a third of that -- $36 billion -- while
producing significant supply-side advantages.
Myth 8. Tax cuts help by "putting money in our
pockets." Fact: Redistributing money between governments and
taxpayers merely shifts -- and does notincrease -- total
spending power. So government spending does not "inject" new
money into the economy, nor do tax
rebates help by "putting money in our pockets."
Rather, low tax rates increase incentives to work, save and
invest, sparking productivity and economic
growth.
Myth 9.The tax cuts haven't boosted
the economy. Fact: The 2003 tax cuts lowered rates for
income, capital gains and dividend taxes. Business investment, the
stock market, job numbers and economic growth -- all of which had
been stagnant -- immediately surged.
Myth 10. The tax cuts tilted toward the rich.
Fact: The rich now shoulder even more of the burden. From
2000 to 2004, the share of individual income taxes paid by the
bottom 40 percent of taxpayers dropped from zero to minus 4 percent
-- meaning the average family in this group got a subsidy from the
refundable child credit or earned-income credit. The share of
income taxes paid by the top fifth of taxpayers climbed from 81
percent to 85 percent. Today, the top 40 percent of filers pay a
record 99 percent of all income taxes, and 85 percent of all
combined federal taxes.
America faces real budget challenges. In particular, the
impending retirement of 77 million baby boomers is set to unleash a
$39 trillion tsunami of unfunded Social Security and Medicare
costs. Congress should focus on preventing that looming fiscal
disaster, not repealing the tax cuts or letting them expire.
Re-raising taxes to previous levels would not increase revenues
significantly. But it would discourage investors and entrepreneurs,
reduce incentives to work, and slow economic growth.
Lawmakers would do well to remember that America cannot tax itself
to prosperity.
Based on the Jan. 29, 2007 "10 Myths" paper by Brian M.
Riedl, the Grover M. Hermann Fellow in Federal Budgetary Affairs in
the Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage
Foundation. You can find the original paper, along with
additional research on taxes and the economy, at heritage.org.