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The August 12
successful interception of an attempted arms sale of a
shoulder-fired Igla SA-18 missile, capable of downing commercial
aircraft three miles in range and two miles in altitude, has
ignited new concern regarding the safety of citizens' air travel in
an environment of terrorist threat. A realistic assessment of such
a danger and an effective response to the threat should be
developed within the context of the following facts:
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Missiles' effectiveness requires
substantial training. Although such weapons -man-portable air
defense system (MANPADS)-are fairly inexpensive and are widely
available in the black market, effective use of such missiles
requires significant training, which terrorists typically lack. The
use of shoulder-fired missiles that targeted Soviet helicopters
during the Afghan conflict in the 1980s is not equivalent to
attacks on moving jet liners, which are vulnerable only during
take-off or landing (at altitudes if 3,500 to 4,000 meters).
Furthermore, many of the missiles that are available are relatively
old and in poor working condition, if they function at all.
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Successful evasion is a low-cost,
near-term solution to the threat. A trained pilot can be very effective in
evading missiles. Thus, a relatively low-cost and efficient
near-term response to the missile threat is to provide pilots and
air controllers with training regarding evasion procedures.
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Missiles can be detected through
well-targeted monitoring. Given the limited range of MANPADS,
jetliners are vulnerable only during take-offs and landings and can
be fired on only from certain areas. Authorities should focus on
these "windows of vulnerability" in airports and monitor
unauthorized personnel or utilize sensors to detect MANPAD firing
so that timely evasive action can be taken. Ongoing efforts of the
Department of Homeland Security to survey and identify areas of
vulnerability at domestic and foreign airports should be
strengthened.
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Individual planes could be equipped with
defense mechanisms against missile attacks. Many military aircraft and some
commercial planes such as El Al, the Israeli airline, have the
capacity to use flares and advanced technology to divert incoming
missiles. Although current options for such defense are
inordinately expensive given the level of the threat, submitting a
request for such technology to the open market could yield less
costly and more accessible defense options. The technology for such
a defense already exists and effective diversion mechanisms for
commercial planes need not be as robust as those for military
aircraft (possibly costing as little as $200 per plane). A priority
for such defense efforts should be high-threat, high-density
airports.
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Aggressive counter-terrorism intelligence initiatives and
stepped-up law enforcement could interdict illegal weapons
trafficking. Although
thousands of MANPAD missiles may be currently available in the
black market, aggressive counter-terrorist intelligence and
law-enforcement initiatives, such as Container Security Initiative
(CSI) and Customs Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (CTPAT) could
effectively and proactively reduce risks.
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Stepped-up research and development for
counter-strike capability could substantially lower the missile
threat. Robust research
and development of high-tech counter-weapons, such as the mobile
tactical high-energy laser (MTHEL), could yield effective and
cost-efficient means to protect airports and other critical
infrastructure from a spectrum of short-range threats. Efforts
within the military to develop such technology are, even now,
yielding significant results.