But while all of these developments are grounds for concern, I want to emphasize that alarmist thinking is not warranted at this point. The Chinese make a distinction between guanxin, which means to be concerned about something, and danxin, which means to be very worried about something. My attitude towards China currently is much more one of concern than it is one of alarm. This is because each of the four points I've mentioned requires immediate qualification. First, let me return to China's capabilities. It is very dangerous to make the kind of straight-line long-term forecasts that figure so prominently in the discussion of China's future here in the United States. Although the Chinese may not be facing an acute or immediate crisis along any of the four dimensions that Chas Freeman identified, it is facing chronic problems that are potentially extremely serious. Indeed, one discovers that as one travels around the periphery of China, other Asian countries are at least as concerned about China's long-term weakness as they are about its long-term strength. Or, to put it differently, they are as worried about the unconventional security threats that would come from collapse as much as they are concerned about the more conventional security threats that would come from strength. In contrast, the analysis of China in the United States has not yet fully come to grips with the challenges to China's continued economic and social success in the middle to long term. With regard to the military more specifically, to say that China is increasing its nominal military budget and is seeking to acquire force projection capabilities does not mean that China is in a position immediately to attain this kind of modern military force. China remains far behind the United States and other major powers technologically, and will remain so for many years. While we should monitor China's military preparations very carefully, I don't think we should overreact to them. Second, although China is not a status quo power, it also is not a revolutionary power or even a power that seeks major changes in the international system. In the 1960s, China was exactly that: a revolutionary power that sought to overthrow every single major international institution from the United Nations to the World Bank and to promote revolutionary insurgencies throughout the Third World. Today, in contrast, China does not seek to undermine international institutions, but rather to expand its role within them, just as a claimant to major power status might be expected to do. Although this is a matter of some concern, it is not as threatening to the international community as is the behavior of truly revolutionary powers that regard the international structure as fundamentally illegitimate. Third, with regard to China's willingness to cooperate, I'm editing a volume on the patterns of cooperation in China's international conduct, which I hope will appear in print sometime next year. The basic thesis of the book is that, although China is by no means fully cooperative in international affairs, it has become increasingly cooperative over the last 150 years. Chinese leaders have come to understand that they need cooperative international interaction to achieve their domestic and foreign objectives. They are therefore increasingly willing to work within international institutions and to forge cooperative relationships with other countries. The pattern of China's behavior--albeit more in the economic realm than in the security sphere--has increasingly been to accept the strictures of the international community. Finally, although the environment surrounding China is not entirely tranquil, still, in comparison with other regions, the Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vibrant and stable in the world. There are no power vacuums into which China can easily expand. There is a good chance of dealing constructively with the flashpoints and unstable countries around China's periphery. So the situation today is very different from the situation that confronted the last aspirant to major power status in Asia, namely Japan in the 1920s and 1930s. At that time, Japan faced a China in collapse and a number of European colonies in Asia at a time of European retrenchment. That was obviously a much more unstable and less vibrant international environment than we see in Asia today. Let me turn finally to the third section of my remarks, about the implications for U.S. policy. I'm not satisfied with any of the three major alternatives which have been put out on the table in recent years. The first of these is one that I didn't even mention in my introductory remarks because, fortunately, it has begun to fall out of favor: a policy of fragmenting China, encouraging its breakup into its constituent regions and provinces. There's an internal contradiction in that policy that I've never been able to fully understand. If China were really so weak that we could cause it to break apart, then why would it pose such a threat to American security that a policy of fragmentation would be warranted? Moreover, a policy of fragmentation would be guaranteed to ignite precisely the kind of Chinese nationalism that it is in our interest to avoid. And even if we were successful in catalyzing China's disintegration, the fragmentation of that country would be an extremely messy process that would have security consequences very detrimental to the interests of the United States and its allies. So a policy of fragmentation fails, with regard both to the end that it pursues and to the means that it entails. Containment is, of course, the policy that is more frequently presented these days as an alternative to the Clinton Administration's approach. In my judgment, the analysis of China's intentions and capabilities that I have presented does not warrant a strategy of containing Chinese influence or seeking to hamper China's rise to major power status. Were we to do so at this point, we would find ourselves engaging in a self-fulfilling prophecy, creating a hostile China. In addition, we would find that no other Asian government -- not Japan, not South Korea, not Southeast Asia, not even Taiwan or Vietnam -- would join us in this undertaking. So we would be taking on China absolutely alone, condemning ourselves to an adversarial relationship with China and therefore to a second Cold War. If it's necessary, a containment policy can, of course, be adopted later. But it is by no means an optimal choice for the United States, and it is neither necessary nor desirable for us to select this strategy under present circumstances. The alternative that the Clinton Administration puts forward is the policy known as "comprehensive engagement." There are several problems with this strategy. One is that the key word, "engagement," has so many different meanings that it is very difficult to explain it to anyone else. It could denote, for example, a betrothal or an agreement to get married--certainly not what it means in this particular case. It could mean a military battle, which is what many Chinese believe that it means. Or it can mean a meshing of gears or a process of dialogue and interaction, which is what the Clinton Administration wants it to mean. But even if we go beyond the semantic confusion that surrounds the term "engagement," we find that it refers to process without substance. Our engagement with China is guided by what vision, and directed at what objectives? In the end, the concept of engagement is an empty one. It refers to dialogue and interaction but does not give a clear sense of what American objectives are. As short-sighted and ill-conceived as they are, at least the concepts of fragmentation and containment tell you very clearly what American goals towards China would be. So what's the alternative? Well, I've never been a good phrase- maker, and I'm not entirely satisfied with the word that I will put forward. But I would recommend a policy of integration: attempting to integrate China into an increasingly vibrant community of nations in the Asia-Pacific region in which the United States is also an active participant. In other words, our policy should be to encourage the expansion of China's bilateral political and economic ties with its neighbors and its active and responsible participation in the emerging economic and security institutions that are being established in the Asia-Pacific region. Now, people in the Clinton Administration might well say that that is what they mean by "engagement," even though they don't spell out their objectives quite so clearly. But I think there are some significant differences between a policy of engagement and a policy of integration. First of all, by talking of integrating China into a regional community, we immediately put our policy in a multilateral setting and not just a bilateral one. A policy of integration implies that we work together with our friends and allies in the Asia-Pacific region to enmesh China in a system of mutually beneficial bilateral and multilateral institutions. In short, whereas engagement is an essentially bilateral strategy, integration is inherently multilateral, although successfully managing the bilateral relationship between China and the United States would be a prerequisite for its success. Second, a policy of integration would require us to identify our common interests with China more clearly, as well as to delineate our concerns about Beijing, something that the Clinton Administration has still not fully done. We might say that we welcome China's emergence as a major actor in the international economy, including its ability to export to other countries, but that we are also asking that China open up its own markets to trade and investment from other countries, including the United States. We could make clear that we welcome China's growing prosperity, which is good both for the Chinese people and for the rest of the world, but that, at the same time, we are concerned about the environmental consequences of Chinese industrialization. We should indicate that we acknowledge China's right to national security and to a reasonable defense establishment, but that we are very concerned about the possibility that China's growing military capability could be destabilizing to the Asia-Pacific region, especially when not conducted in a transparent way. And we could say that we respect the desire of both the Chinese leaders and the Chinese people for political stability, but that we believe that genuine stability can be achieved better through a process of gradual and sustained political reform than through repression alone. That kind of statement, identifying both our common interests and our differences with the Chinese, would be an important element of an integration policy. Such a statement of American objectives has generally been absent from the articulation of our engagement policy thus far. Finally, because of its multilateral dimension, a policy of integration alerts us to the importance of not just having a clear strategy towards China, but also promoting the stability and vitality of the region as a whole. Security threats are not produced simply by the rise of an ambitious or irresponsible major power. Rather, they are created by the rise of such a power in an international environment that provides it with either nettlesome provocation or easy opportunities. It's therefore very important for us and our friends in the region to maintain an international environment that sends a very clear signal to the Chinese:
- We welcome you into our international community on mutually beneficial terms.
- We are not going to do things that impinge upon your vital national interests.
- We are not going to create easy opportunities for you to take unfair advantage of.
- If you attempt to take unreasonable advantage of those opportunities, you will find that the community will come together to resist your encroachments and that it has both the resources and the political will to do so.
Generally, we get into trouble, as we did in Korea in 1950, when we say we're not interested, when we don't pay attention. That leads others to say, "Well, if the Americans are not interested, then we'll pursue our own interests." We have to lean forward, in my view, and indicate in more than just words that the peaceful resolution of these territorial and related issues is very mu