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  • Backgrounder posted May 5, 2016 by William T. Wilson, Ph.D. The Prospects for Economic Transition in China Are Questionable

    During the financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, Beijing passed a $600 billion stimulus package (representing 13.4 percent of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP)) which allowed China to breeze through the worst global contraction since the Great Depression. With the U.S. mired in depression-like conditions, some believed that the “Beijing Consensus” of…

  • Commentary posted April 25, 2016 by Dean Cheng Never Say Never: China's Rise Is About the Art of the Possible

    Will China dominate the Pacific? Impossible. Or so we are told by M.L. Cavanaugh, a U.S. Army strategist and War on the Rocks contributor. In a unique article that uses Netflix shows such as “Daredevil” and “Sense8” to explain how we should view the rise of China, Cavanaugh tell us, “Even if China carves out some additional room for maneuver, it will never dominate the…

  • Testimony posted March 17, 2016 by Lisa Curtis China’s South Asia Strategy

    Testimony Before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission March 10, 2016 My name is Lisa Curtis. I am Senior Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation. The views I express in this testimony are my own and should not be construed as representing any official position of The Heritage Foundation. Introduction China’s major interests in South Asia include…

  • Commentary posted March 10, 2016 by Dean Cheng The People's Liberation Army on Wargaming

    China has a long history of engaging in wargaming and exercises as part of military planning. The Chinese biography of Sun-Tzu (545-470 BC) recounts the tale of Sun-Tzu employing the emperor’s consorts as troops to demonstrate military activities and maneuvers. In the Warring States period (475-221 BC), the philosopher Mozi is said to have dissuaded the state of Chu from…

  • Commentary posted March 10, 2016 by Dean Cheng Taking China's Carrier Operations Seriously

    This past week, Sino-Vietnamese tensions rose as China moved a deep-sea drilling rig into disputed areas and began earnest exploration for oil. Coming in the wake of President Obama’s visit to Asia, this suggests that Chinese assertiveness has not been deterred by the American pivot, but, rather, has accelerated. Of particular note to the Chinese may have been President…

  • Commentary posted March 10, 2016 by Dean Cheng The Danger of Historical Analogies: The South China Sea and the Maginot Line

    Does China’s island building in the South China Sea resemble the Maginot Line? This is not a quirky and unimportant debate, but rather one that has profound strategic implications. A recent War on the Rocks article advances this argument. The authors, Robbie Gramer and Rachel Rizzo, write:     "The Maginot Line became a ubiquitous symbol of failure in defense planning;…

  • Commentary posted March 10, 2016 by Dean Cheng Admiral Xiao's Influence and Beyond

    Admiral Xiao Jinguang was the first commander of the PRC’s navy. He was in charge of the Navy from 1950 to 1980–a period even longer than Sergei Gorshkov (1956-1985). Xiao survived various purges, the machinations of Lin Biao (before Lin himself fell from power), and the Cultural Revolution. At one point, he was attacked, and Mao himself defended him, declaring that, so…

  • Commentary posted March 10, 2016 by Dean Cheng China's "Blue Soil"

    Recent Chinese documents and statements on maritime issues reflects this growing interest and focus on naval power. It should also raise concerns . In the 2010 China’s Ocean Development Report from the State Oceanic Administration (SOA), the Chinese made their first official statement that they were building and developing a carrier fleet. That’s the part that got most…

  • Commentary posted March 10, 2016 by Dean Cheng China: Ready to Assume a Leadership Role?

    A recent Pew Survey on global attitudes shows that most people around the world believe that China will eclipse, or already has eclipsed, the United States as the dominant superpower. This is hardly surprising, given several decades of seemingly untrammeled growth that has allowed the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to become the nation with the world’s second largest…

  • Lecture posted January 21, 2016 by Dean Cheng Prospects for Extended Deterrence in Space and Cyber: The Case of the PRC

    While there has been discussion about whether today’s security environment constitutes a “neo-Cold War,” the reality is that it is actually more complex than the Cold War. For most of the period between 1947 and 1992, the situation was largely marked by a bipolar balance, where the two major players created somewhat symmetrical blocs of allies, friends, and client states.…

  • Issue Brief posted January 15, 2016 by Joshua Meservey Four U.S. Policy Priorities for Africa in 2016

    There were some positive developments for U.S. interests in Africa in 2015. Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation and boasting its largest economy, peacefully elected a new president. Congress reaffirmed the U.S.’s commitment to Tunisia, a fledgling democratic ally in the crosshairs of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The African Growth and Opportunity…

  • Commentary posted January 5, 2016 by Dean Cheng China's Bomber Flight into the Central Pacific: Wake-Up Call for the United States

    Late last month, Chinese H-6K bombers staged one of their longer missions in recent memory. Flying through the Miyako Straits northeast of Taiwan, the bombers proceeded into the central Pacific, to a point 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from the Ryukyu island chain (stretching from the Japanese Home Islands past Okinawa towards Taiwan). As important, they reached a point…

  • Special Report posted December 31, 2015 by Walter Lohman, John Fleming, Olivia Enos 2015 Asia Update: The Trends and What They Mean for America

    The Asian Studies Center America's Commitment to the Pacific Previous editions of this product have illustrated America’s resident power status in Asia and the continuing, critical importance of its commitment to leadership there. They have sought to demonstrate in graphic fashion what is at stake for the U.S. from the economy to security to human liberty. This year’s…

  • Lecture posted December 21, 2015 by Mark B. Schneider Nuclear Deterrence in the Context of the European Security Crisis and Beyond

    Legacy Soviet attitudes toward the West have always shaped Russian foreign and defense policy. Vladimir Putin replaced Boris Yeltsin’s stance that Russia had no enemies with the rather paranoid view that the U.S., NATO, and Japan are Russia’s enemies and that the U.S. is seeking the destruction of Russia.[1] Putin has characterized the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the…

  • Commentary posted December 4, 2015 by Lisa Curtis Challenge from China Draws India and US Closer Together

    Relations between the United States and India are taking on a greater significance amid a climate of heightened Sino-US tensions. Washington and New Delhi have drawn closer together and intensified their dialogue with Tokyo, writes World Review expert Lisa Curtis. The scope of future strategic and security cooperation between the US and India will depend to a large…