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How Will Taxmageddon Impact You?

Created on June 11, 2012

How Will Taxmageddon Impact You?

Methodology and Data Used to Calculate Tax Increases on Population Cohorts

In calculating the average tax hike due to hit various cohorts (families, baby boomers, retirees, low-income workers, and millennials), The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis (CDA) relied on an Individual Income Tax model. The CDA tax model simulates the effect of tax law changes on a representative sample of taxpayers based on IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) taxpayer microdata, matched with U.S. Census Current Population Survey (CPS) demographic data. Data for base-year taxpayers are extrapolated or “aged” to reflect detailed taxpayer characteristics through 2016.

Static comparison of current policy with the tax increases expected under current law was obtained by running simulations of the current policy “baseline” and of each of the tax increases, both separately and also together, creating Taxmageddon. The tax increases were based on the President’s most recent budget proposal and information on the IRS website.

The static Individual Income Tax model results show only the effect of the simulated tax policy on tax burden and overall revenue, and the income and growth of the population is “aged” for consistency with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline forecast without regard for the effect of tax changes upon the growth of income.