• Heritage Action
  • More

Current Job Growth Rate Foretells Lengthy Stagnation

Created on July 5, 2011

Current Job Growth Rate Foretells Lengthy Stagnation

Over the past 12 months, the economy has added an average of 122,000 jobs per month. At that rate, it could take decades to return to the Natural Rate of Unemployment, 5.2 percent. By comparison, if jobs grew at the same rate as they did in 1997–1999, unemployment would reach 5.2 percent sometime between 2014 and early 2016.

 

Current Job Growth Rate Foretells Lengthy Stagnation

 

Chart 2 •  WM 3307

heritage.org

9.1%

Natural Rate of Unemployment: 5.2%

2003–2007 Expansion (+176,000 jobs/month)

1997 (+216,000 jobs/month)

1997–1999 Payroll Survey (+260,000 jobs/month)

Past Year (+122,000 jobs/month)

Future Unemployment Rate Under Different Rates of Job Growth

Actual Unemployment

Jan. 2018

Oct. 2015

Aug. 2014

Source: Heritage Foundation calculations using data from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.