PUBLICATIONS BY Bruce Klingner
Commentary
Research
Media Appearances
2009 Commentary
September 02, 2009
America's New Japan Challenge
By Bruce Klingner
The rumbling you heard across the Pacific Ocean over the weekend was Japan moving further from the United States -- and closer to China. Japan's left-of-center opposition party, which has long spouted anti-capitalist and anti-US rhetoric, won a landslide victory in Sunday's election.
September 02, 2009
DPJ victory poses challenges for U.S. alliance
By Bruce Klingner
Japan's opposition Democratic Party of Japan fulfilled predictions by winning a landslide victory over the moribund ruling party. The change in government is historic: It is only the second time in 50 years that the Liberal Democratic Party has been out of power. A disgruntled and angry electorate threw the LDP out of office for not only failing to fix Japan's long-standing economic problems but seeming incapable of offering any hope for future improvement.
August 20, 2009
Through the (North Korean) looking glass
By Bruce Klingner
Ironies abound in the current United States policy toward North Korea. Someone awakening from a long slumber could be forgiven for concluding that a naively liberal president George W Bush had been replaced by neo-conservative Barack Obama.
August 17, 2009
Success, but at what cost?
By Bruce Klingner
It would be heartless not to welcome the release of two U.S. hostages from North Korea's malevolent clutches. Pyongyang's imposition of a sentence of 12 years of hard labor on journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee for trespassing into North Korea was an egregiously disproportionate response. All hope for their full and speedy recovery from their ordeal.
June 22, 2009
It's not right time to discuss OPCON transfer
By Bruce Klingner
The U.S.-South Korean 2007 decision to transfer wartime operational control, or OPCON of South Korea forces to Seoul in April 2012 continues to be a lightning rod of controversy.
May 04, 2009
How should the U.S. handle North Korea?
By Bruce Klingner
The United Nations' feckless defense of Security Council resolutions demanding Pyongyang abandon its missile and nuclear programs bodes ill for diplomatic efforts to denuclearize North Korea and prevent further proliferation.
January 28, 2009
Pyongyang's shot across Obama's bow
By Bruce Klingner
You'd think North Korea would at least wait for Barack Obama to enter the Oval Office before testing his mettle. But through a series of provocative statements, Pyongyang has already thrown down the gauntlet. That's one way to force yourself higher up the president's agenda.
January 21, 2009
Obama Will Be Challenged by North Korea
By Bruce Klingner
Of all the foreign policy challenges that Barack Obama inherits from President George Bush, North Korea may prove to be the most intractable. Perceptions that Obama will take a dramatically different approach toward Pyongyang, including an embrace of summit diplomacy, have raised unrealistic expectations for a near-term breakthrough in the six-party talks.
2008 Commentary
December 11, 2008
Policy on Korea under Obama administration
By Bruce Klingner
This is the tenth in a series of articles assessing the effect U.S. President-elect Barack Obama will have on Korea-U.S. relations, politically, economically and socially. - Ed.
Barack Obama will assume the U.S. presidency amidst exceedingly high expectations. Perceptions that direct U.S. engagement with Pyongyang will secure an accelerated North Korean denuclearization, and that Washington will more readily incorporate the wishes of foreign nations, will eventually clash with reality.
October 20, 2008
Setting a new course with North Korea
By Bruce Klingner
The Bush administration has careened between policy extremes in its attempts to denuclearize North Korea. Following an initial rejection of diplomacy as a viable means to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem, President Bush embraced a strategy that has often equated talking with progress and abandoned its stated principles as acceptable casualties of achieving an agreement.
September 01, 2008
Regaining foreign investor confidence in Korea
By Bruce Klingner
Lee Myung-bak's landslide election victory was greeted enthusiastically by foreign investors who expected growth-oriented business-friendly policies, rapid implementation of economic reforms, and Korean ratification of the Korea-US free trade agreement. In Korean politics, however, the only constant change and the intervening months have brought dashed hopes and lowered expectations. The chastened president was forced by extensive public protests to curtail economic policy initiatives.
June 10, 2008
Getting the Bulldozer Back on Track
By Bruce Klingner
President Lee Myung-bak confronts a deepening political crisis that requires a bold proactive strategy to overcome the country's factionalism and put South Korea back on the path to economic recovery.
May 27, 2008
S. Korea's Uncertain Path With China
By Bruce Klingner
President Lee Myung-bak has articulated policies toward the United States, North Korea, and Japan, but has been curiously silent on defining his administration's relationship with China.
April 23, 2008
Lee, Bush affirm strong bilateral partnership
By Bruce Klingner
The U.S.-South Korean summit meeting successfully emphasized the value of the bilateral relationship in maintaining peace and stability in Northeast Asia. Presidents Lee Myung-bak and George W. Bush were able to make significant progress in repairing the cracks in the alliance that arose during the Roh Moo-hyun administration
April 08, 2008
Lee stumbles out of the starting block
By Bruce Klingner
There's a saying in New England: "If you don't like the weather, just wait 10 minutes. It is sure to change." The same can be said about South Korean politics. After Lee Myung-bak's landslide presidential victory in December, the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) seemed guaranteed to sweep next week's legislative elections.
March 17, 2008
When the Music Dies
By Bruce Klingner
Music may soothe the savage beast, but it won’t change Kim Jong-il’s intransigence in the stalled Six Party Talks.
February 29, 2008
A New National Strategy for Korea
By Bruce Klingner
The United States welcomed the election of Lee Myung-bak, who they expect to improve strained relations with Washington, implement a more pragmatic policy toward North Korea, and establish a more business-friendly environment. The departure of Roh Moo-hyun sets the stage for more agreement on policy and more effective efforts to denuclearize North Korea. The improved atmosphere provides a firm foundation for realizing the full potential of the bilateral relationship
January 09, 2008
Economic Paradigm Shift
By Bruce Klingner
Contrary to assertions that the landslide victory of Lee Myung-bak represented a rejection of ideology; it was, in fact, a mandate for conservative principles, including free market economics.
2007 Commentary
November 15, 2007
Pyongyang cloud cover
By Bruce Klingner
Almost everything is in short supply in North Korea — especially transparency. That's one reason so many longtime Korea watchers viewed the agreement arising from the Six-Party Talks earlier this year with such skepticism.
September 27, 2007
Korean Summit High-Risk Gambit?
By Bruce Klingner
The inter-Korean summit provides an opportunity to further international goals of reducing North Korea's military threat and strengthening regional stability.
September 08, 2007
Do not let Detroit derail this fair trade agreement
By Bruce Klingner
America and South Korean trade negotiators overcame seemingly insurmountable obstacles to sign the landmark Korea-US free trade agreement on June 30. The trade pact would provide new opportunities for US businesses and workers by increasing US-South Korean trade, liberalising South Korea's economy to expand market access and making 94 per cent of bilateral trade duty-free within three years.
August 11, 2007
The 2nd Summit between two Koreas
By Bruce Klingner
Yonhap reported that South Korea only informed the U.S. a few hours prior to the announcement, indicating Seoul is freelancing on peninsular issues and not coordinating with its key ally. U.S. officials, including Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill and U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Vershbow, have cautioned Seoul not to be overly eager in providing benefits to Pyongyang without imposing some conditionality to its largesse.
May 11, 2007
FTA jumpstarts economy
By Bruce Klingner
South Korea`s "economic miracle" is being challenged by increasingly competitive rivals and growing investor concerns over Seoul`s commitment to economic reform. Implementing the Korean-U.S. Free Trade Agreement would give South Korea a significant regional trade advantage and send a powerful positive signal to foreign and domestic investors.
March 23, 2007
What price denuclearization?
By Bruce Klingner
By giving in to North Korea's demands for release of frozen bank funds -- money gained from Pyongyang's illicit activities -- U.S. negotiators have sent a dangerous signal. Washington now appears less resolute in combating North Korean counterfeiting, money laundering and drug smuggling. Worse, the U.S. has lost the leverage it gained from international anger following Pyongyang's October 2006 nuclear test.
March 17, 2007
America has to keep Pyongyang honest over uranium
By Bruce Klingner
If US officials hope to make progress in their nuclear negotiations with North Korea, one task cannot be ignored: ending Pyongyang's highly enriched uranium programme. It would be a serious mistake, in the wake of the agreement reached in the six-party talks last month, to downplay the significance of the HEU programme.
February 16, 2007
Agreement falls short
By Bruce Klingner
The six-party agreement announced in Beijing Tuesday has significant shortfalls that will hinder efforts to denuclearize North Korea. Its vague provisions and deferred requirements provide Pyongyang with loopholes that it will seek to exploit. Moreover, the accord sends a dangerously accommodating signal not only to North Korea, but also to Iran and other aspiring nuclear weapons states.
February 08, 2007
Where a trade push is needed
By Bruce Klingner
Since last year, trade representatives in the United States and South Korea have worked to forge a free-trade agreement (FTA) -- a pact that would provide significant economic and political benefits to both nations. But a deadline is looming: the expiration of "fast track" trade promotion authority. And if that happens before the deal is completed, it would derail the proposed FTA.
January 20, 2007
Six parties, sixfold problems
By Bruce Klingner
Although the resumption last month of the six-party talks on the North Korea nuclear program postponed further confrontation and lowered regional tensions, it did nothing to resolve irreconcilable differences that will continue to plague the negotiations.
2009 Research
November 17, 2009
Trade Dispute Undercuts Obama's Korea Trip
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2702)
It is increasingly obvious that the Obama Administration is willing to sacrifice the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement on the altar of auto-sector protectionism.
November 09, 2009
Japan's Security Policy: Navigating the Troubled Waters Ahead
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2340)
The United States's relationship with Japan has just become more complicated. The recent election victory of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has resulted in more resistance to a truly shared U.S.-Japanese mission. Refusing to provide troops to aid the coalition in Afghanistan, and generally uninterested in actively engaging in overseas security missions, the risk-averse DPJ is pulling back from its responsibilities in the U.S.-Japan alliance, as well as internationally. This leaves the U.S. in the position of responding to an ally who demands an equal role yet resists assuming equal responsibilities.
August 31, 2009
Japanese Election Poses Challenges for U.S. Alliance
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2600)
The results of the recent Japanese election are historic.
August 26, 2009
How to Save the U.S.-Japan Alliance
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2308)
The U.S.-Japan alliance remains crucial, but it is underperforming and weaker than generally perceived. A failure by America's leaders to understand, appreciate, and take necessary transformative measures raises the risk of crises in Asia and around the world. There are issues that could easily lead to a stagnant alliance unable to adapt to a rapidly changing Asian security environment.
August 18, 2009
No North Korean Thaw from Clinton Trip
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2591)
It is one thing to point out that former President Bill Clinton's trip to Pyongyang to secure the release of two American journalists was a success. It is quite another thing, however, to say that the release of the journalists marked a change in North Korean direction, attitude, or policy.
August 04, 2009
Bill Clinton in Pyongyang: Bring American Reporters Home, Do Not Let Up on Nukes
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2573)
While securing the freedom of the two U.S. journalists would be a welcome development, former President Clinton's surprise visit to North Korea risks undermining ongoing international efforts to pressure Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons.
July 04, 2009
North Korean Launches Affirm Need for Missile Defense
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2522)
North Korea's blatant defiance of yet another UN resolution demonstrates the critical necessity for the U.S. and its allies to have robust missile defense systems.
July 01, 2009
U.S. Levies Economic Sanctions on North Korea
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2519)
Hopefully realizing the futility of relying on U.N. actions to constrain North Korean belligerence, on June 30 the Obama Administration imposed unilateral U.S. sanctions on two North Korean companies engaged in proliferation.
June 15, 2009
KORUS FTA Strengthens the U.S. Economy and Alliance with Korea
By Bruce Klingner and Daniella Markheim
(WebMemo #2485)
Reviving the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement is a critically important issue for both countries.
May 26, 2009
North Korea's Nuclear Defiance
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2457)
The U.S. should respond in several ways to North Korea's continued pursuit of nuclear weapons.
May 22, 2009
Japan's Economic Weakness: A Security Problem for America
By Bruce Klingner and Derek Scissors, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #2456)
Japan's dismal economic performance is constraining American efforts to induce Tokyo to adopt a larger security role.
May 14, 2009
Japan's Opposition Buoyed by Leader's Resignation
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2444)
In the coming months, Japanese politics should garner particular attention from U.S. policymakers who may soon face a new Japanese leadership--one that is willing to hinder U.S. security objectives and even challenge the status quo of the bilateral alliance.
April 04, 2009
North Korea Throws Down Missile Gauntlet
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2365)
North Korea's launch of a long-range Taepo Dong-2 missile is a direct challenge not just to the United States but to the international community’s resolve to confront threats to regional stability.
March 20, 2009
America's North Korea Policy: Adding Lanes to the Road
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2252)
Despite public perceptions of a major U.S. policy shift toward North Korea, President Obama is continuing the Bush engagement strategy. The Six-Party Talks should not be the only venue for U.S.-North Korean engagement. A more comprehensive strategy would offer Pyongyang a path to greater economic and diplomatic benefits while continuing to insist on compliance, conditionality, reciprocity, and verification.
March 03, 2009
Prepared Statement before Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and the Global Environment
By Bruce Klingner
(Testimony #9999)
Thank you Mr. Chairman and the distinguished members of the Subcommittee for asking me to testify on “Remaking U.S. Foreign Policy in North Korea.”
February 17, 2009
North Korea's Missile Gambit
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2295)
North Korea may be preparing to test-launch a long-range Taepo Dong-2 missile from its eastern coast. The U.S. must send a clear message to Pyongyang, America’s Asian allies, and the rest of the world that a nuclear North Korea will not be tolerated.
February 13, 2009
Secretary Clinton's Asia Trip: Allied Reassurance
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2293)
Coming only three weeks into the Obama Administration, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s Asia trip communicates that Asia matters to the United States and that Washington is committed to a predominant role in the region over the long-term.
January 06, 2009
Securing U.S. Objectives in North Korea
By Bruce Klingner and Walter Lohman
(Special Report #37)
President-elect Obama, during the campaign you stressed the need for "sustained, direct, and aggressive diplomacy" with North Korea in order to achieve "the complete and verifiable elimination of all of North Korea's nuclear weapons programs, as well as its past proliferation activities, including with Syria." When North Korea provided data on its nuclear weapons programs, you stated that...
2008 Research
October 31, 2008
North Korea Nuclear Verification: Has the U.S. Blinked?
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2120)
A rigorous verification protocol is of critical importance to ensuring that North Korea does not again cheat on an international denuclearization agreement.
October 09, 2008
Forging a New Era in the U.S.—Japan Alliance
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2196)
Bilateral U.S.—Japan security ties have expanded significantly during the past 10 years, resulting in more integrated military operations and a broader international role for the Japan Self-Defense Force. Washington must continually urge Japan to take greater responsibility for its own defense and regional security to a degree commensurate with its economic power and global interests to confirm the future of this alliance.
September 24, 2008
Under Aso, Prospects Bright for U.S.-Japan Strategic Relationship, but Challenges Remain
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2078)
On September 24, Taro Aso became the new Japanese prime minister and the country's fourth ruler in three years. Aso’s foreign policy views are more in line with the U.S. than those of his predecessor, Yasuo Fukuda; that is a welcome development. Depending greatly on how politics in Japan shake out in the next couple months, Aso's election offers the hope of closer coordination on U.S.-Japanese strategic interests.
September 11, 2008
Planning for a North Korea without Kim Jong-il
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2059)
Rumors that Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke have triggered concerns over the ramifications of instability and regime change in North Korea, particularly in regards to that nation’s arsenal of nuclear weapons. Over the years, there have been scores of rumors regarding Kim, including illness, incapacitation, coup, assassination, and even death. Subsequently, jaded Korea watchers view such reports with skepticism. But one day the rumors will be true and the most recent report could certainly be the one. For that reason, it is important to carefully and dispassionately think through all that Kim's departure from power might mean.
September 03, 2008
Fukuda's Resignation Reflects Japan's Political Gridlock
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #2045)
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's abrupt resignation has again thrown Japan’s political landscape into uncertainty.
July 16, 2008
North Korea Denuclearization Requires Rigorous Verification System
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1996)
Pyongyang cannot be allowed to play a nation-wide shell game on its nuclear programs. The U.S. must learn from the shortcomings of the 1994 Agreed Framework and not allow North Korea to indefinitely postpone required inspections.
June 30, 2008
Transforming the U.S.-South Korean Alliance
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2155)
The U.S.-South Korea security alliance must evolve to respond to a changing threat environment, an evolving U.S. military strategy, and South Korea’s desire to assume more responsibility for its security. Washington and Seoul should lay the foundation for transforming the alliance from a singularly focused defensive mission to a broader relationship that looks beyond the Korean Peninsula.
June 26, 2008
Limited Progress on North Korean Denuclearization: Critical Questions Lie Ahead
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1974)
Pyongyang's June 26 delivery of a data declaration regarding its nuclear weapons programs and the anticipated destruction of the cooling tower at the Yongbyon nuclear reactor represent commendable progress towards North Korean denuclearization. However, serious questions remain as to whether North Korea will fully dismantle its nuclear weapons and programs.
April 29, 2008
Playing "Whack-a-Mole" with North Korea
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1905)
The U.S. intelligence community's revelation that North Korea was helping Syria to build a nuclear reactor "not intended for peaceful purposes" after seven months of Bush Administration stonewalling will be a serious body blow to the Six-Party Talks. The intelligence disclosure, coming so soon after strenuous congressional and interagency objections to a tentative agreement between Washington and Pyongyang to resolve the data declaration impasse, could be a knockout punch to the current U.S. strategy in the talks.
April 15, 2008
Mr. Lee Comes to Washington
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1889)
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s April 15, 2008, trip to the U.S. is a valuable opportunity to affirm the strategic importance of the U.S.–South Korea bilateral partnership and repair the strains wrought by the previous South Korean administration’s policies.
April 01, 2008
New South Korean President Brings Conservative Policy Change
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2120)
Lee Myung-bak’s pro-market economic principles, understanding of regional threats, and willingness to impose conditionality in South Korea’s engagement policy are more in line with U.S. principles than were those of Roh Moo-hyun. If Lee effectively implements these values, South Korea will have a strong bond with Washington, regardless of which party occupies the White House after the 2008 U.S. election.
March 18, 2008
Supporting Our South Korean Ally and Enhancing Defense Cooperation
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1859)
Legislation pending in Congress would facilitate foreign military sales to South Korea.
January 24, 2008
Securing American Interests in Japan's Uncharted Political Waters
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2100)
The United States should encourage Japan to maintain course on adopting a stronger security presence and implementing the necessary legal and constitutional changes to do so. At the same time, U.S. policymakers should monitor emerging changes in the Japanese political paradigm so that they can swiftly and effectively address trends that could affect U.S. strategic interests.
January 10, 2008
North Korea: Clouds Block the Sunshine at the Six-Party Talks
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1771)
The U.S. and its allies must be resolute on insisting that North Korea comply with its commitment to denuclearize.
2007 Research
December 20, 2007
Conservative Landslide Marks New Era in South Korea
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1758)
The election of Lee Myung-bak is good news for the United States on the diplomatic, security, and economic fronts.
December 07, 2007
Economic Lethargy: South Korea Needs a Second Wave of Reforms
By Bruce Klingner and Anthony B. Kim
(Backgrounder #2090)
The economy of South Korea reflects a strengthening recovery, but inconsistent economic policies, lingering systemic deficiencies, and increasingly competitive rivals create significant long-term challenges. To avoid economic stagnation, South Korea should improve its investment environment through legislative reforms and implement structural reforms to increase the competitiveness and profitability of South Korean firms.
December 07, 2007
Executive Summary: Economic Lethargy: South Korea Needs a Second Wave of Reforms
By Bruce Klingner and Anthony B. Kim
(Executive Summary #2090)
Executive Summary: The economy of South Korea reflects a strengthening recovery, but inconsistent economic policies, lingering systemic deficiencies, and increasingly competitive rivals create significant long-term challenges. To avoid economic stagnation, South Korea should improve its investment environment through legislative reforms and implement structural reforms to increase the competitiveness and profitability of South Korean firms.
October 04, 2007
North Korea: Worrisome Gaps in Six-Party Talks' Joint Statement
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1655)
The agreement is insufficient to ensure full North Korean denuclearization.
September 26, 2007
Fukuda May Tack Back on Japan's Assertive Foreign Policy
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1642)
In working to build broad support, the prime minister is likely to compromise on the gains his predecessors made in asserting a new regional security role for Japan.
September 12, 2007
South Korea's Mercurial Political Landscape
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2068)
U.S. policymakers should take advantage of a change in South Korean administrations to improve and transform the relationship. Washington and Seoul should also define the future of their military alliance. Washington should develop a broad-based coalition of government, business, and labor representatives to encourage South Korea’s implementation of more extensive financial reforms to increase economic freedom and enhance investment.
September 12, 2007
Abe Resigns: Washington's Delicate Diplomatic Dance
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1614)
A change in leadership throws Japan's political scene into turmoil and makes U.S.-Japanese diplomacy suddenly more complicated.
August 30, 2007
Japanese Election Results Hamper U.S. Objectives in Asia
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1594)
With the opposition vowing to obstruct his foreign policy initiatives, a weakened Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must show bold and decisive leadership if he hopes to regain public support and expand the role of Japan’s armed forces.
August 08, 2007
Seoul's Impetuous Summit Initiative
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1584)
South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun's attempt to secure his legacy and influence coming presidential elections risks undermining multinational efforts to denuclearize North Korea and could strain Seoul's relationship with Washington.
July 12, 2007
Election Risk for Japanese Prime Minister
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1550)
A loss by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party or the resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could hinder U.S. efforts to have Japan assume a larger Asian and global security role.
July 11, 2007
Election Risk for Japanese Prime Minister
By Bruce Klinger
(WebMemo #1549)
A loss by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party or the resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could hinder U.S. efforts to have Japan assume a larger Asian and global security role.
June 15, 2007
Banking Transfer Plays to North Korean Demands
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1507)
The U.S. must press North Korea to provide details on its highly enriched uranium-based nuclear weapons program and to agree to stringent verification measures to ensure the destruction of its nuclear weapons facilities and nuclear weapons.
May 23, 2007
Transforming the U.S.-Japanese Alliance
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1471)
Washington must adopt a more active strategy to help Japan take a larger role in deterring military threats.
April 30, 2007
Countering Pyongyang's Next Steps in the Six Party Process
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1438)
In the next round of talks, the U.S. should take a firm stance on denuclearization, disclosure, verification, and compliance, lest North Korea devise strategies to shirk more if its commitments.
April 04, 2007
Confronting the North Korean Nuclear Threat
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2023)
The Six-Party Talks will fail if North Korea does not decide to give up its nuclear weapons completely. Collapse of the talks or even a prolonged stalemate has dire ramifications for regional stability and international nonproliferation efforts. Because few experts believe that North Korea will fully comply with its commitments, the U.S. should begin contingency planning for alternative outcomes.
April 02, 2007
The U.S.-South Korea FTA: A Defining Moment
By Bruce Klingner and Anthony B. Kim
(WebMemo #1413)
Ratification would mean a new era for U.S. economic engagement with East Asia and expanded opportunities for the American economy. Failure, however, would strike a blow to a key alliance.
March 15, 2007
Banco Delta Asia Ruling Complicates North Korean Nuclear Deal
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1398)
The U.S. Treasury Department's March 14 ruling against a Macau-based bank for its complicity in North Korea's illegal activities could further the Six-Party Talks if Macau releases Pyongyang's seized accounts. But Pyongyang’s expectation that it will overcome its isolation from international financial networks is unrealistic and could lead it to delay compliance with the preliminary agreement. Nonetheless, the U.S. should continue its financial and law enforcement efforts to combat North Korea's illicit activities.
February 13, 2007
North Korea Nuclear Weapons Agreement Falls Short
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1358)
The agreement rewards Pyongyang for its bad behavior and reflects America’s abandonment of several previously intractable negotiating positions.
February 05, 2007
A Six-Party Strategy: How the U.S. Can Press North Korea to Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1339)
While movement in the Six-Party Talks would be a welcome development, the U.S. must not abandon its demand for complete dismantlement of all of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs in a rigorously verifiable manner.
January 05, 2007
Apply Pressure to Firm Up the Six-Party Talks
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1300)
The talks are not dead, yet. The Bush Administration should work multilaterally to increase pressure on Pyongyang, economically and otherwise.
November 20, 2009
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