PUBLICATIONS BY Bruce Klingner
Commentary
Research
Media Appearances
2008 Commentary
June 10, 2008
Getting the Bulldozer Back on Track
By Bruce Klingner
President Lee Myung-bak confronts a deepening political crisis that requires a bold proactive strategy to overcome the country's factionalism and put South Korea back on the path to economic recovery.
May 27, 2008
S. Korea's Uncertain Path With China
By Bruce Klingner
President Lee Myung-bak has articulated policies toward the United States, North Korea, and Japan, but has been curiously silent on defining his administration's relationship with China.
April 23, 2008
Lee, Bush affirm strong bilateral partnership
By Bruce Klingner
The U.S.-South Korean summit meeting successfully emphasized the value of the bilateral relationship in maintaining peace and stability in Northeast Asia. Presidents Lee Myung-bak and George W. Bush were able to make significant progress in repairing the cracks in the alliance that arose during the Roh Moo-hyun administration
April 08, 2008
Lee stumbles out of the starting block
By Bruce Klingner
There's a saying in New England: "If you don't like the weather, just wait 10 minutes. It is sure to change." The same can be said about South Korean politics. After Lee Myung-bak's landslide presidential victory in December, the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) seemed guaranteed to sweep next week's legislative elections.
March 17, 2008
When the Music Dies
By Bruce Klingner
Music may soothe the savage beast, but it won’t change Kim Jong-il’s intransigence in the stalled Six Party Talks.
February 29, 2008
A New National Strategy for Korea
By Bruce Klingner
The United States welcomed the election of Lee Myung-bak, who they expect to improve strained relations with Washington, implement a more pragmatic policy toward North Korea, and establish a more business-friendly environment. The departure of Roh Moo-hyun sets the stage for more agreement on policy and more effective efforts to denuclearize North Korea. The improved atmosphere provides a firm foundation for realizing the full potential of the bilateral relationship
January 09, 2008
Economic Paradigm Shift
By Bruce Klingner
Contrary to assertions that the landslide victory of Lee Myung-bak represented a rejection of ideology; it was, in fact, a mandate for conservative principles, including free market economics.
2007 Commentary
November 15, 2007
Pyongyang cloud cover
By Bruce Klingner
Almost everything is in short supply in North Korea — especially transparency. That's one reason so many longtime Korea watchers viewed the agreement arising from the Six-Party Talks earlier this year with such skepticism.
September 27, 2007
Korean Summit High-Risk Gambit?
By Bruce Klingner
The inter-Korean summit provides an opportunity to further international goals of reducing North Korea's military threat and strengthening regional stability.
September 08, 2007
Do not let Detroit derail this fair trade agreement
By Bruce Klingner
America and South Korean trade negotiators overcame seemingly insurmountable obstacles to sign the landmark Korea-US free trade agreement on June 30. The trade pact would provide new opportunities for US businesses and workers by increasing US-South Korean trade, liberalising South Korea's economy to expand market access and making 94 per cent of bilateral trade duty-free within three years.
August 11, 2007
The 2nd Summit between two Koreas
By Bruce Klingner
Yonhap reported that South Korea only informed the U.S. a few hours prior to the announcement, indicating Seoul is freelancing on peninsular issues and not coordinating with its key ally. U.S. officials, including Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill and U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Vershbow, have cautioned Seoul not to be overly eager in providing benefits to Pyongyang without imposing some conditionality to its largesse.
May 11, 2007
FTA jumpstarts economy
By Bruce Klingner
South Korea`s "economic miracle" is being challenged by increasingly competitive rivals and growing investor concerns over Seoul`s commitment to economic reform. Implementing the Korean-U.S. Free Trade Agreement would give South Korea a significant regional trade advantage and send a powerful positive signal to foreign and domestic investors.
March 23, 2007
What price denuclearization?
By Bruce Klingner
By giving in to North Korea's demands for release of frozen bank funds -- money gained from Pyongyang's illicit activities -- U.S. negotiators have sent a dangerous signal. Washington now appears less resolute in combating North Korean counterfeiting, money laundering and drug smuggling. Worse, the U.S. has lost the leverage it gained from international anger following Pyongyang's October 2006 nuclear test.
March 17, 2007
America has to keep Pyongyang honest over uranium
By Bruce Klingner
If US officials hope to make progress in their nuclear negotiations with North Korea, one task cannot be ignored: ending Pyongyang's highly enriched uranium programme. It would be a serious mistake, in the wake of the agreement reached in the six-party talks last month, to downplay the significance of the HEU programme.
February 16, 2007
Agreement falls short
By Bruce Klingner
The six-party agreement announced in Beijing Tuesday has significant shortfalls that will hinder efforts to denuclearize North Korea. Its vague provisions and deferred requirements provide Pyongyang with loopholes that it will seek to exploit. Moreover, the accord sends a dangerously accommodating signal not only to North Korea, but also to Iran and other aspiring nuclear weapons states.
February 08, 2007
Where a trade push is needed
By Bruce Klingner
Since last year, trade representatives in the United States and South Korea have worked to forge a free-trade agreement (FTA) -- a pact that would provide significant economic and political benefits to both nations. But a deadline is looming: the expiration of "fast track" trade promotion authority. And if that happens before the deal is completed, it would derail the proposed FTA.
January 20, 2007
Six parties, sixfold problems
By Bruce Klingner
Although the resumption last month of the six-party talks on the North Korea nuclear program postponed further confrontation and lowered regional tensions, it did nothing to resolve irreconcilable differences that will continue to plague the negotiations.
2008 Research
June 30, 2008
Transforming the U.S.-South Korean Alliance
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2155)
The U.S.-South Korea security alliance must evolve to respond to a changing threat environment, an evolving U.S. military strategy, and South Korea’s desire to assume more responsibility for its security. Washington and Seoul should lay the foundation for transforming the alliance from a singularly focused defensive mission to a broader relationship that looks beyond the Korean Peninsula.
June 26, 2008
Limited Progress on North Korean Denuclearization: Critical Questions Lie Ahead
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1974)
Pyongyang's June 26 delivery of a data declaration regarding its nuclear weapons programs and the anticipated destruction of the cooling tower at the Yongbyon nuclear reactor represent commendable progress towards North Korean denuclearization. However, serious questions remain as to whether North Korea will fully dismantle its nuclear weapons and programs.
April 29, 2008
Playing "Whack-a-Mole" with North Korea
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1905)
The U.S. intelligence community's revelation that North Korea was helping Syria to build a nuclear reactor "not intended for peaceful purposes" after seven months of Bush Administration stonewalling will be a serious body blow to the Six-Party Talks. The intelligence disclosure, coming so soon after strenuous congressional and interagency objections to a tentative agreement between Washington and Pyongyang to resolve the data declaration impasse, could be a knockout punch to the current U.S. strategy in the talks.
April 15, 2008
Mr. Lee Comes to Washington
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1889)
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s April 15, 2008, trip to the U.S. is a valuable opportunity to affirm the strategic importance of the U.S.–South Korea bilateral partnership and repair the strains wrought by the previous South Korean administration’s policies.
April 01, 2008
New South Korean President Brings Conservative Policy Change
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2120)
Lee Myung-bak’s pro-market economic principles, understanding of regional threats, and willingness to impose conditionality in South Korea’s engagement policy are more in line with U.S. principles than were those of Roh Moo-hyun. If Lee effectively implements these values, South Korea will have a strong bond with Washington, regardless of which party occupies the White House after the 2008 U.S. election.
March 18, 2008
Supporting Our South Korean Ally and Enhancing Defense Cooperation
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1859)
Legislation pending in Congress would facilitate foreign military sales to South Korea.
January 24, 2008
Securing American Interests in Japan's Uncharted Political Waters
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2100)
The United States should encourage Japan to maintain course on adopting a stronger security presence and implementing the necessary legal and constitutional changes to do so. At the same time, U.S. policymakers should monitor emerging changes in the Japanese political paradigm so that they can swiftly and effectively address trends that could affect U.S. strategic interests.
January 10, 2008
North Korea: Clouds Block the Sunshine at the Six-Party Talks
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1771)
The U.S. and its allies must be resolute on insisting that North Korea comply with its commitment to denuclearize.
2007 Research
December 20, 2007
Conservative Landslide Marks New Era in South Korea
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1758)
The election of Lee Myung-bak is good news for the United States on the diplomatic, security, and economic fronts.
December 07, 2007
Economic Lethargy: South Korea Needs a Second Wave of Reforms
By Bruce Klingner and Anthony B. Kim
(Backgrounder #2090)
The economy of South Korea reflects a strengthening recovery, but inconsistent economic policies, lingering systemic deficiencies, and increasingly competitive rivals create significant long-term challenges. To avoid economic stagnation, South Korea should improve its investment environment through legislative reforms and implement structural reforms to increase the competitiveness and profitability of South Korean firms.
December 07, 2007
Executive Summary: Economic Lethargy: South Korea Needs a Second Wave of Reforms
By Bruce Klingner and Anthony B. Kim
(Executive Summary #2090)
The economy of South Korea reflects a strengthening recovery, but inconsistent economic policies, lingering systemic deficiencies, and increasingly competitive rivals create significant long-term challenges. To avoid economic stagnation, South Korea should improve its investment environment through legislative reforms and implement structural reforms to increase the competitiveness and profitability of South Korean firms.
October 04, 2007
North Korea: Worrisome Gaps in Six-Party Talks' Joint Statement
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1655)
The agreement is insufficient to ensure full North Korean denuclearization.
September 26, 2007
Fukuda May Tack Back on Japan's Assertive Foreign Policy
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1642)
In working to build broad support, the prime minister is likely to compromise on the gains his predecessors made in asserting a new regional security role for Japan.
September 12, 2007
South Korea's Mercurial Political Landscape
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2068)
U.S. policymakers should take advantage of a change in South Korean administrations to improve and transform the relationship. Washington and Seoul should also define the future of their military alliance. Washington should develop a broad-based coalition of government, business, and labor representatives to encourage South Korea’s implementation of more extensive financial reforms to increase economic freedom and enhance investment.
September 12, 2007
Abe Resigns: Washington's Delicate Diplomatic Dance
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1614)
A change in leadership throws Japan's political scene into turmoil and makes U.S.-Japanese diplomacy suddenly more complicated.
August 30, 2007
Japanese Election Results Hamper U.S. Objectives in Asia
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1594)
With the opposition vowing to obstruct his foreign policy initiatives, a weakened Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must show bold and decisive leadership if he hopes to regain public support and expand the role of Japan’s armed forces.
August 08, 2007
Seoul's Impetuous Summit Initiative
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1584)
South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun's attempt to secure his legacy and influence coming presidential elections risks undermining multinational efforts to denuclearize North Korea and could strain Seoul's relationship with Washington.
July 12, 2007
Election Risk for Japanese Prime Minister
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1550)
A loss by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party or the resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could hinder U.S. efforts to have Japan assume a larger Asian and global security role.
July 11, 2007
Election Risk for Japanese Prime Minister
By Bruce Klinger
(WebMemo #1549)
A loss by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party or the resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could hinder U.S. efforts to have Japan assume a larger Asian and global security role.
June 15, 2007
Banking Transfer Plays to North Korean Demands
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1507)
The U.S. must press North Korea to provide details on its highly enriched uranium-based nuclear weapons program and to agree to stringent verification measures to ensure the destruction of its nuclear weapons facilities and nuclear weapons.
May 23, 2007
Transforming the U.S.-Japanese Alliance
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1471)
Washington must adopt a more active strategy to help Japan take a larger role in deterring military threats.
April 30, 2007
Countering Pyongyang's Next Steps in the Six Party Process
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1438)
In the next round of talks, the U.S. should take a firm stance on denuclearization, disclosure, verification, and compliance, lest North Korea devise strategies to shirk more if its commitments.
April 04, 2007
Confronting the North Korean Nuclear Threat
By Bruce Klingner
(Backgrounder #2023)
The Six-Party Talks will fail if North Korea does not decide to give up its nuclear weapons completely. Collapse of the talks or even a prolonged stalemate has dire ramifications for regional stability and international nonproliferation efforts. Because few experts believe that North Korea will fully comply with its commitments, the U.S. should begin contingency planning for alternative outcomes.
April 02, 2007
The U.S.-South Korea FTA: A Defining Moment
By Bruce Klingner and Anthony B. Kim
(WebMemo #1413)
Ratification would mean a new era for U.S. economic engagement with East Asia and expanded opportunities for the American economy. Failure, however, would strike a blow to a key alliance.
March 15, 2007
Banco Delta Asia Ruling Complicates North Korean Nuclear Deal
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1398)
The U.S. Treasury Department's March 14 ruling against a Macau-based bank for its complicity in North Korea's illegal activities could further the Six-Party Talks if Macau releases Pyongyang's seized accounts. But Pyongyang’s expectation that it will overcome its isolation from international financial networks is unrealistic and could lead it to delay compliance with the preliminary agreement. Nonetheless, the U.S. should continue its financial and law enforcement efforts to combat North Korea's illicit activities.
February 13, 2007
North Korea Nuclear Weapons Agreement Falls Short
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1358)
The agreement rewards Pyongyang for its bad behavior and reflects America’s abandonment of several previously intractable negotiating positions.
February 05, 2007
A Six-Party Strategy: How the U.S. Can Press North Korea to Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1339)
While movement in the Six-Party Talks would be a welcome development, the U.S. must not abandon its demand for complete dismantlement of all of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs in a rigorously verifiable manner.
January 05, 2007
Apply Pressure to Firm Up the Six-Party Talks
By Bruce Klingner
(WebMemo #1300)
The talks are not dead, yet. The Bush Administration should work multilaterally to increase pressure on Pyongyang, economically and otherwise.
