PUBLICATIONS BY Tim Kane, Ph.D.
Research
Commentary
Media Appearances
2007 Research
August 01, 2007
American Competitiveness: Why Well-Intentioned Labor Regulations Can Hurt More Than Help
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #1037)
Congress should not use the conventional European approach to labor markets unless it also wishes to invite European levels of unemployment. The idea of mandatory paid leave is especially problematic. By mandating more benefits in new labor regulation, Congress will be basically giving American workers a pay cut.
July 30, 2007
TAA Reform Is Not Enough
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Daniella Markheim
(WebMemo #1574)
Rather than expand an ineffective job training program, Congress should consolidate all federal employment initiatives into one program that saves tax dollars and provides real assistance to workers.
July 27, 2007
Surprises in the Bullish GDP Report
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1572)
Congress must reject protectionist measures for strong economic growth to continue for the rest of the year.
July 20, 2007
CBO Weighs In on the All-Volunteer Force
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1561)
A new report by the Congressional Budget Office debunks the notion that a volunteer military is inferior to a conscripted force.
June 20, 2007
Foreign Investment, Growth, and Economic Freedom: What Is OPIC’s Role?
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Heritage Lecture #1033)
Empirical studies show that growth comes first, and investment follows, which implies that building the institutions for growth is the optimal development strategy. Congress should explore a phase-out of OPIC, especially since its mission is duplicative of the private sector.
June 11, 2007
Trade Deficits and Stolen Jobs: April Update
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1496)
After years of scaring voters with stories of economic decline, protectionists are now pursuing mistaken policies to reap what they have sown.
May 14, 2007
Are Foreign Trade and Investment Unbalanced?
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1455)
Recent trade data show why Congress must tread very carefully in regulating capital markets and playing politics with the international economy.
March 27, 2007
Free Trade Is Dead. Long Live Free Trade
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1409)
"Free trade" isn't what it once was. A series of crucial votes in coming months will show whether the U.S. continues to embrace the trade posture that has brought it so much prosperity.
March 08, 2007
A Higher Minimum Wage Equals Less Economic Freedom
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Anthony B. Kim
(WebMemo #1385)
Raising the minimum wage by 40 percent would lower the United States' score in the Index of Economic Freedom.
February 28, 2007
The Coming Chinese Slowdown: Resolving the Paradox of Freedom and Growth
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1375)
The 9 percentage point plummet of Chinese equities in one day, the worst performance in a decade, sends a warning that that China is strong but not stable. To blame is China's poor showing in economic freedom.
February 27, 2007
Sponsorship: The Key to a Temporary Worker Program
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #1022)
The core labor-market engine powering the guest worker immigration system should be based on free-market principles. Sponsorship is the only option that will operate smoothly, fairly, and flexibly to serve U.S. policy goals and the U.S. economy by harnessing the power of the market to finance, manage, and enforce a temporary worker program.
2006 Research
December 05, 2006
Preparing for the U.S.–China Strategic Economic Dialogue
By Michael A. Needham, Tim Kane, Ph.D., and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1276)
The U.S.–China Strategic Economic Dialogue is an opportunity to promote economic freedom and address challenges the U.S. and China face.
November 28, 2006
No Justification for a Military Draft
By Tim Kane, Ph. D.
(WebMemo #1263)
Rep. Charlie Rangel’s three justifications for a military draft are not supported by facts or history.
November 20, 2006
Milton Friedman, the Father of Economic Freedom
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., Bill Beach, and Andrew Peek
(WebMemo #1259)
Milton Friedman's accomplishments and ideas, particularly in the realm of economic liberty, continue to transform the world today.
November 03, 2006
Stupid Soldiers: Central to the Left's Worldview
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1244)
John Kerry's gaffe reveals a common belief among the antiwar Left.
October 27, 2006
Who Are the Recruits? The Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Military Enlistment, 2003–2005
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #06-09)
The all-volunteer force is representative of our nation and meets standards set by Congress and the Department of Defense. Although recent recruiting goals have been difficult to meet, reenlistment is strong and recruit quality remains high. No evidence supports arguments for reinstating the draft or altering recruiting policies to achieve more equitable representation.
August 29, 2006
Unions in Decline and Under Review
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and James Sherk
(WebMemo #1202)
Organized Labor in America has lost its way. The most telling evidence is that unions have been shedding members for decades. It is time for Americans to ask why this is happening, not whether it is happening.
July 21, 2006
Is Iraq Another Vietnam? Not for U.S. Troop Levels
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and David D. Gentilli
(Backgrounder #1954)
Iraq is not Vietnam. There are far fewer U.S. troops in Iraq today than there were in Vietnam in the late 1960s, and there are far fewer casualties. Additionally, troop levels are more stable in Iraq, and American strategy in Iraq is less reliant on military muscle and more focused on the political and economic aspects of fighting a counterinsurgency.
June 16, 2006
On the Road Again: Four Goals for the new U.S. Trade Representative
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1130)
Susan Schwab began work this week as U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) at a difficult time for free trade. Free traders have promised results for decades, and an honest assessment says they were right. Globalization is enhancing prosperity everywhere, and lowering trade barriers promotes broad prosperity for the poor and rich alike. But reality and perceptions are far apart in Washington, making the free trade argument tougher than ever. After months of delay, the Senate finally approved Schwab, just as souring economies in Europe may offer yet another obstacle to further trade liberalization.
May 24, 2006
Global U.S. Troop Deployment, 1950-2005
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #06-02)
The first priority in deployment strategy is not a particular foreign government's desire to keep American troops in its country, but America's need to align its forces against contemporary and future threats. Better data about the deployment levels of American forces can contribute to an understanding of the consequences of past strategies and the development of future strategies.
May 19, 2006
Immigration Reform or Central Planning
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1088)
The Senate's 600-page immigration reform bill is stuffed with provisions that are difficult to decipher--some good, no doubt, and some that are alarming. Alarms bells should be ringing at the idea of creating a new bureaucracy within the Department of Labor tasked with centrally planning labor markets for untold numbers of guest workers. This would be a mistake. Governments cannot measure and plan the quantities and prices of labor and goods better than markets can. The history of failed socialist economies in Eastern Europe should not be so easy to neglect.
April 18, 2006
China's Economic Invasion: One Year Later
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., Marc Miles, Ph.D., and Anthony Kim
(WebMemo #1044)
The U.S trade deficit is neither unsustainable nor likely to cause a decline in the value of the dollar.
March 01, 2006
The Real Problem with Immigration... and the Real Solution
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1913)
Efforts to curtail the economic influx of migrants actually worsen the security dilemma by driving many migrant workers underground. A non-citizen guest worker program is an essential component of securing the border, but only if it is the right program. There are numerous issues involved in such a program, but the evidence indicates that worker migration is a net plus economically.
February 06, 2006
Fixing the Asbestos Mess: The Senate's Reform Needs Reforming
By James L. Gattuso and Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1909)
Asbestos. It is the basis for the longest-running mass tort litigation in U.S. history, as well as the most expensive. Since the late 1960s, some 850,000 claimants have sued for asbestos-related injuries. The litigation has cost some $70 billion and 60,000 jobs, but little has gone to the truly injured. Lawyers and litigation costs have consumed almost 60 percent of resources expended, and much of the rest has gone to claimants without real impairments. Yet the lawsuits are still coming, with up to $200 billion in additional claims on the horizon.
February 03, 2006
Surging Payrolls, Falling Unemployment, and the Shifting Policy Debate
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #985)
Strong employment data may change the tenor of the debate over issues from tax cuts to health care policy.
January 06, 2006
The Silver Lining of 2005: Jobs Boom Should Protect Tax Reform
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #958)
Why 2005 was a good year, economically speaking.
2005 Research
November 30, 2005
Does the World's Mightiest Economy Have an Achilles Heel?
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Rea S. Hederman, Jr.
(WebMemo #928)
The U.S. economy is the biggest in the world, and it just keeps growing bigger. Recent data from the Commerce Department confirm that economic growth is robust, faster than economists had expected. In annualized terms, the economy grew 4.3 percent larger during the third quarter of 2005, which also happened to be when three massive hurricanes ripped up the Gulf Coast. Some diehard pessimists remain skeptical—a sign of partisan times perhaps—but we share one concern about an Achilles heel on the American colossus...
November 23, 2005
Is Iraq a Poor Man's War?
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #922)
How does Heritage's study stack up against the National Priorities Project's?
November 07, 2005
Who Bears the Burden? Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Military Recruits Before and After 9/11
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #05-08)
The current all-voluntary military looks like America. Where they are different, the average soldier is slightly better educated and comes from a slightly wealthier, more rural area. The military includes a higher proportion of blacks and lower proportions of other minorities but a proportionate number of whites. More important, recruiting does not draw disproportionately from racially concentrated areas.
November 04, 2005
The Heresy of Labor Markets: Congress Clamors to Reinstate Davis-Bacon
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #912)
Davis-Bacon makes reconstruction more expensive and delays rebuilding.
November 04, 2005
Should Federal Labor Policy Be Any Different After the 2005 Hurricane Season?
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and David Muhlhausen, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1893)
Congress should fashion a labor policy in response to the recent Gulf Coast hurricanes that uses market incentives rather than direct federal action. It should begin by securing stable homes for evacuees in real communities. The existing Unemployment Insurance system is working well to cushion job losses, but the Davis–Bacon reversal is a setback for labor market freedom.
November 03, 2005
The Demographics of Military Enlistment After 9/11
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #987)
Heritage Foundation analysis of Department of Defense enlistment data for 1999 and 2003 shows that, contrary to claims that poor and minority Americans account for a disproportionate number of enlistees, voluntary military recruits are better educated than the general population and were more likely to come from higher-income areas after 9/11.
October 28, 2005
Wal-Mart's Perverse Strategy on the Minimum Wage
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #899)
Why does Wal-Mart want a higher minimum wage? To hamstring the competition.
October 19, 2005
"Recapturing" Visas: A Sensible Temporary Fix for America's Foreign Worker Problem
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #886)
This reform would increase flexibility, reduce the current backlog, and serve as the basis for further improvements.
October 07, 2005
Hurricane Job Losses: How Severe?
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #876)
How bad was the economic damage from Katrina? Not so bad, really.
September 19, 2005
Repealing Tax Cuts to Pay For Katrina Recovery Would Cost the Gulf Coast, and the Nation, Jobs
By Rea S. Hederman, Jr., Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Scott Moody
(WebMemo #849)
Congress should prioritize and cut spending, instead.
September 02, 2005
Labor Day Review: In Katrina's Wake
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #828)
A recap of this year's economic and labor milestones.
August 05, 2005
Revised! Job Creation Better Than Ever
By William W. Beach and Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #815)
The new job number continue to impress--including big revisions to recent data.
July 29, 2005
GDP Growth Continues to Impress
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Rea S. Hederman, Jr.
(WebMemo #812)
Growth is steady and not at all flashy--and that may be the best kind.
July 28, 2005
The AFL-CIO's Disintegration and Its Possible Implications
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #808)
Could this be an essential phase for the rebirth of American labor?
July 08, 2005
5.0 Percent Unemployment: Better Than Good
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #788)
The economy approached the natural rate of unemployment.
June 07, 2005
Are Pensions the Next Fiscal Crisis?
By David C. John, Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Rea S. Hederman, Jr.
(WebMemo #756)
A federal pension bailout could cost $100 billion if Congress doesn't act soon.
May 31, 2005
The Brutal Price of a Dollar
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1855)
The value of a dollar has little to fear from lower taxes, high imports, or foreign meddling (mercantilist foreign countries prefer stronger dollars). The only real danger is American politics. Overly stimulative Federal Reserve monetary policy might create an inflationary headache and distort prices, but only misguided congressional fiscal and trade policy can permanently poison free markets.
May 31, 2005
Executive Summary: The Brutal Price of a Dollar
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #1855)
Executive Summary; The value of a dollar has little to fear from lower taxes, high imports, or foreign meddling (mercantilist foreign countries prefer stronger dollars). The only real danger is American politics. Overly stimulative Federal Reserve monetary policy might create an inflationary headache and distort prices, but only misguided congressional fiscal and trade policy can permanently poison free markets.
May 12, 2005
Trade Deficits, Dollars, and China: Wrong Lessons Make Dangerous Policy
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Marc Miles, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #743)
Could it be that trade deficits are not a drag on growth?
May 06, 2005
Jobs, Growth, and the Washington Connection
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Andrew Grossman
(WebMemo #739)
April's job numbers were good; Congress can make them better.
April 12, 2005
U.S. Troops and Economic Growth: Regression Analysis with Robustness Tests
By Garett Jones and Tim Kane
(Center for Data Analysis Report #9999)
The deployment of U.S. military troops to foreign countries has a positive relationship with economic growth in the host countries.
April 11, 2005
The Impact of U.S. Troop Deployments on Economic Growth
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Garett Jones, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #05-03)
Preliminary research indicates that (1) in the long run, U.S. troop deployments are typically associated with positive economic outcomes; (2) the duration of deployments matters more for long-run economic growth than does the intensity of deployments; (3) the growth payoff takes many decades to become fully effective, suggesting that patience is indeed a virtue in foreign military affairs.
April 07, 2005
The Bankruptcy Bill and Debt Obesity
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #712)
The rise of bankruptcies is caused by a lack of accountability in America's bankruptcy laws.
April 01, 2005
April Jobs: Lower Unemployment is No Joke
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #708)
Nobody should doubt the health of the American workforce.
March 04, 2005
Unemployment Rates of Modern Presidents
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #675)
The latest numbers and how George W. Bush stacks up.
March 04, 2005
Minimizing Economic Opportunity by Raising the Minimum Wage
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #676)
Raising the minimum wage would cost unskilled workers jobs.
February 04, 2005
Bush's First-Term Record on Job Growth
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #647)
Did the economy create jobs during President George W. Bush's first term?
January 28, 2005
The Big Picture on GDP Growth
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #644)
How sure are you that the new economy was a mirage? With the release of fourth quarter GDP data for 2004 today, there may be a lot of commentary that the economy is not doing as well as expected.
2004 Research
December 03, 2004
Jobs Gap Defies Expectations
By Alison Acosta Fraser, Tim Kane, and Rea Hederman
(WebMemo #616)
Today's job report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is still more evidence of an expanding economy, with job growth exceeding 100,000 for the fourth straight month.
November 05, 2004
The Post-Election Employment Picture
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Rea Hederman
(WebMemo #603)
The employment numbers released today confirm again that labor markets are healthy. The labor force is 147.9 million strong, a record high.
October 29, 2004
Past. Present! Future? Economic Growth in America
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Rea Hederman
(WebMemo #601)
This paper looks forward at how the two parties' radically different plans may affect growth and prosperity.
October 27, 2004
Global U.S. Troop Deployment, 1950–2003
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-11)
The first priority in deployment strategy is the American need to align its forces against contemporary and future threats. Better data about the levels of American forces will hopefully contribute to the development of future deployment strategies. This report describes a new Heritage Foundation database that the Center for Data Analysis has made freely available to researchers.
October 21, 2004
Scorecard on the Economy: A Guide for Policymakers
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., Andrew Grossman, Rea S. Hederman, Jr., and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-10)
More than 1.5 million payroll jobs, and nearly 2 million jobs on the household survey, added over the past year; high output, manufacturing outlook, business confidence, and productivity; markedly improved long-term unemployment and manufacturing employment outlooks; and a poverty rate that is low by historical standards: These are the facts that frame the debate on the economy.
October 08, 2004
Jobs: The Ultimate Pocketbook Issue
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Rea Hederman
(WebMemo #584)
A pleasant last look at employment before the election.
October 07, 2004
Framing the Economic Debate
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., Rea S. Hederman, and Kirk Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #582)
A statistic-rich summary of the state of the economy.
October 06, 2004
Revising the Payroll Survey Benchmark: What To Expect
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #581)
Will an annual adjustment to the payroll survey send job numbers soaring?
September 20, 2004
The Candidates' Tax Plans: Comparing the Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Bush and Kerry Tax Proposals
By William W. Beach, Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D., Rea S. Hederman, Jr., Alfredo B. Goyburu, and Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-09)
Senator John Kerry's tax plan slows economic activity until 2011, when it generally adopts President George Bush's approach of permanent tax cuts. Even so, the Bush plan consistently outperforms the Kerry plan. President Bush relies on supply-side tax changes while Senator Kerry focuses much of his attention on demand-side policy with targeted tax policy changes that yield the unintended consequence of producing a tax cut for high-income taxpayers after 2011.
September 03, 2004
A Labor Day Report Card
By Tim Kane, Rea Hederman, and Alison Acosta Fraser
(WebMemo #560)
The jobs market looks great today. Look back over the last year, and the picture is even better.
August 06, 2004
A Problem with Payrolls?
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Rea Hederman
(WebMemo #550)
Fundamentally, the employment situation in America is solid, but payroll job growth is out of line with a host of positive indicators.
July 30, 2004
GDP, Trade, and the Gods of Economic Statistics
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #546)
It is too easy to take progress for granted, and the expectation of constant improvement clouds appreciation for what the American economy has achieved.
July 21, 2004
The 2003 Tax Cuts and the Economy: A One-Year Assessment
By Bill Beach, Rea Hederman, Tim Kane
(WebMemo #543)
All across the economic spectrum, JGTRRA left its tracks.
July 09, 2004
Protectionism Compromises America's Homeland Security
By James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., Tim Kane, Ph.D., Dan Mitchell, Ph.D., and Ha Nguyen
(Backgrounder #1777)
Applying protectionist policies to homeland security would stifle innovation and increase costs. Congress should grant the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) the power to award contracts to the company that is best equipped for the job. However, it is essential that DHS perform "due diligence," ensuring that services are being provided under conditions consistent with the rule of law and good management and security practices.
July 02, 2004
Flexibility, Quality, and Numbers: The Job Market Is More Than on Track
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #527)
Today's employment situation report from the Labor Department is more proof that the job market is solidly on track.
June 30, 2004
How Good Are the New Jobs?
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1773)
America is enjoying a jobs boom, with 1.4 million new jobs over nine straight months of payroll growth, but the real story lies in a much broader understanding of the new economy: The modern workplace is empowering individuals to work for themselves, enjoy flexible hours, and pursue dreams rather than survival, all while shattering the traditional definitions of employment.
June 04, 2004
Jobs Momentum In May
By Bill Beach, Tim Kane, and Rea Hederman
(WebMemo #515)
Employment in America continues to expand strongly and steadily.
May 24, 2004
Michigan Leads a National Jobs Boom
By Rea Hederman and Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #510)
This month's state data release confirms that the national expansion in jobs is widespread across all sectors and all regions.
May 13, 2004
Myths and Realities: The False Crisis of Outsourcing
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., Brett D. Schaefer, and Alison Acosta Fraser
(Backgrounder #1757)
Outsourcing is a new variant of the myth that capitalism is good for capital at the expense of labor. Rather than relying on protectionism, Congress should improve the competitiveness of the U.S. business environment by eliminating overly burdensome regulations, attacking frivolous lawsuits through tort reform, simplifying and flattening the tax code, and ensuring affordable and reliable energy supplies.
May 07, 2004
April Jobs Report: It's All Good
By Tim Kane, Rea Hederman, and Alison Acosta Fraser
(WebMemo #499)
On its face, the April jobs report released today by the Labor Department looks good, but the details look even better.
May 04, 2004
The Wrong Time to Extend Unemployment Insurance
By Paul Kersey and Tim Kane, Ph.D.,
(Backgrounder #1754)
The labor market's perceived weakness has led to calls for another extension of temporary unemployment insurance benefits, but this would increase spending by roughly $1 billion per month and is unnecessary given the demonstrated strengthening of the labor market. Any extension of jobless claims generates exactly the wrong incentives and increases the average duration of unemployment for those who qualify.
April 27, 2004
The Real Story on "Stagnant" Wages
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #491)
Now that payroll jobs are growing, economic skeptics are falling back on a new line of defense: "stagnant" wages.
April 23, 2004
Promoting Global Economic Freedom at the G-7 Meetings to Secure Future Growth
By Brett D. Schaefer, Balbina Y. Hwang, and Tim Kane
(WebMemo #490)
European- and Japanese-style government intervention is a barrier to growing prosperity
April 21, 2004
Extending Unemployment Insurance: Three Simple Charts Against
By Paul Kersey and Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #487)
Although the perception of weakness in the labor market has led to calls for another extension of temporary unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, this is a political cure in search of a problem.
April 16, 2004
The Economic Lessons of President Hoover
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #482)
Some charge that President Bush has "the worst economic record since Herbert Hoover." Is that true?
April 02, 2004
Strong Employment Growth in March
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Alison Fraser
(WebMemo #468)
Today's release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a strong one and should lay to rest any remaining doubts about the strength of the economic recovery.
April 02, 2004
Strong Employment Growth in March
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Alison Acosta Fraser
(WebMemo #468)
Today's release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a strong one and should lay to rest any remaining doubts about the strength of the economic recovery.
April 01, 2004
Ten Myths about Jobs and Outsourcing
By Tim Kane, Brett D. Schaefer, and Alison Acosta Fraser
(WebMemo #467)
America's workers deserve a more informative, less partisan debate on outsourcing. The negative impact of outsourcing on the economy and American employment has been greatly exaggerated and the benefits of outsourcing almost entirely ignored.
March 25, 2004
The Myth of a Jobless Recovery
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #917)
The economy's alleged failure to create jobs is an illusion that stems from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' payroll survey, which overcounts the jobs of many workers when they change employers. A better measure is the household survey, and analysts can now point with confidence to the employment of an additional 1.9 million workers since the recession ended.
March 24, 2004
Will the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up?
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #456)
Even pessimists know that a 5.6 percent unemployment rate is close to what economists consider the "natural" rate of unemployment. So where are all those "discouraged" workers?
March 04, 2004
Diverging Employment Data: A Critical View of the Payroll Survey
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-03)
Policymakers and analysts should treat payroll data with caution when making comparisons to employment levels in earlier years. Because the best measure of job growth now comes from smoothed total employment reported in the household survey, policies aimed at protecting illusory lost jobs are ill-advised, and the increasing dynamism of U.S. job markets should not be clogged by misguided and misinformed cures.
February 27, 2004
Fourth Quarter GDP: Economic Growth and Ungrateful Economists
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #435)
Commerce revised the GDP growth from the fourth quarter of 2003 upwards to 4.1 percent. On any scale, that's strong growth and anything but "stagnant."
February 06, 2004
Increased Investment Pushes January Job Growth
By William W. Beach, Alison Acosta Fraser, Rea S. Hederman, Jr., and Tim Kane
(WebMemo #416)
The President's pro-growth economic plan – and his tax cuts, especially – contributed to last month's increase in employment.
January 30, 2004
Strong GDP Growth Continues in the Fourth Quarter
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #408)
Driving strong fourth quarter performance was continued strong investment, proof that recent investment-related tax cuts are doing much good.
January 28, 2004
The American Workforce: Strong Facts Trump Weak Myths
By Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #406)
Skeptics attribute lower unemployment to growing ranks of "discouraged workers" leaving the labor force, but that scenario doesn't fit the data.
2007 Commentary
August 02, 2007
Examination of 'Elites' and the Military AWOL: The Unexcused Absence of America's Upper Classes from Military Service—and How It Hurts Our Country.
By Tim Kane
In 1915 Harvard University established one of the first ROTC programs in the country, but in 1969 the faculty voted 207-125 to deny course credit for ROTC and revoke faculty status of ROTC instructors. Nearly four decades later, the animosity of the Ivy League towards the military remains strong. This is taken by many as a symbol of a modern gap between America's elites and her troops.
2006 Commentary
December 30, 2006
A Draft for Freedom Fighters?
By Tim Kane
It’s been 33 years since America got rid of the draft and moved to an all-volunteer military. Is it time to return to the days of conscription?
November 25, 2006
Celebrity Professor Proposes Wrong Cure for Poverty
By Tim Kane
He is one of Time’s 100 most influential people in the world; a special advisor to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, and an architect of Russia’s transition from communism to modern prosperity.
November 09, 2006
No Atheists in a Foxhole? No Idiots, Either
By Tim Kane and Mackenzie Eaglen
The Pentagon’s announcement that all military branches reached or exceeded their active-duty recruiting goals for fiscal year 2006 grabbed plenty of headlines. Small wonder.
September 28, 2006
Political protectionism threatens U.S.-China dialogue
By Michael A. Needham & Tim Kane
You can always count on the forces of protectionism to emerge once election season starts. It’s a cheap way for politicians to wrap themselves in the flag, even if the policies would harm the nation.
May 30, 2006
Presence of American troops yields benefits
By Tim Kane
One of the traps we fall into when studying history is that it's often impossible to comprehend that the world hasn't always been the way it is today. In this age of globalization Americans enjoy unprecedented prosperity, so we tend to assume that previous generations did as well.
March 15, 2006
Immigration: "Neither Preference Nor Prejudice"
By Tim Kane and Kirk Johnson
There's a difference between having an "open door" policy and having no doors at all.
March 11, 2006
Poll too biased to show troops' views
By Tim Kane
For anyone following the Iraq war, now may be the time to take off those rose-colored glasses. According to a recent Zogby poll, 72 percent of U.S. troops say it's time to withdraw from Iraq. Another stunner is that only three in five soldiers in Iraq have a clear sense of the mission. Ouch!
March 08, 2006
Iraq: Weighing the costs & benefits
By Tim Kane
Is the war in Iraq worth it? Skeptics are confident the answer is no, and some are quantifying their certainty by translating the war into dollar terms. Direct costs so far exceed a quarter billion dollars, five times higher than the early rosy estimates of some White House officials, and that's before adding intangibles.
2005 Commentary
November 29, 2005
Debunking the myth of the underprivileged soldier
By Tim Kane and James Carafano
They all volunteered. The U.S. soldiers pitching in with hurricane relief along the Gulf Coast and those fighting and dying in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere decided, on their own, to serve their nation.
June 21, 2005
'Exit strategy' — a mere phrase, not a strategy
By Tim Kane
Arguments for and against the U.S. troop presence in Iraq assume that having an "exit strategy" is a fundamental military principle.
May 27, 2005
The Legacy of Troop Deployment
By Tim Kane
Every Memorial Day, when we honor the soldiers who have sacrificed so much for the greater cause of liberty, I think about Uncle B.
May 20, 2005
State Should Stop Targeting Wal-Mart
By Tim Kane
Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. surely will catch flak for vetoing the "Wal-Mart bill."
March 14, 2005
Nothing personal about Social Security
By Tim Kane
Before we begin talking about ways to reform Social Security, consider: If the system had never existed and was proposed as new legislation in its current form, would it pass?
2004 Commentary
October 28, 2004
Baseball And The "Stolen" Election
By Edwin Meese III and Timothy Kane
The closer we get to Election Day, the more likely it seems that we'll witness another razor-thin margin of victory in the presidential race.
August 25, 2004
Presto, a Better Jobs Picture
By Tim Kane
Few people missed the headlines when the latest employment figures were unveiled earlier this month by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
August 25, 2004
The jobs numbers that you're not hearing about
By Tim Kane and Andrew Grossman
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently snuck out a telling confession beneath everyone's radar: Its flagship payroll survey is likely undercounting hundreds of thousands of jobs.
August 20, 2004
Kerry, Hoover and Economic Honesty
By Tim Kane
In campaign speeches and on his Web site, John Kerry tells us that President Bush has "the worst economic record since the Hoover administration."
April 18, 2004
Myths about Jobs and Outsourcing
By Tim Kane, Brett Schaefer and Alison Acosta Fraser
The American economy never rests. At this moment, in fact, economic growth is vigorous. Yet every time there is a slight dip in the acceleration of output, jobs or incomes, the undying myths of a sputtering, backfiring economy rise again. Today, many of those myths concern the ills of outsourcing.
April 11, 2004
Jobs: The New Economy Recovers
By Tim Kane
Modern-day Crisps are thriving in the debate over jobs. The eyewitnesses, however, are a string of positive employment situation reports from the Labor Department. They have spoiled the story of a "jobless recovery."
April 07, 2004
Labor's Lost Jobs
By Tim Kane
Friday brought good news on the economic front, with the Labor Department reporting that 308,000 jobs were added last month.
December 4, 2008
