PUBLICATIONS BY Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
Research
2007 Research
April 17, 2007
Calibrating Macroeconomic and Microsimulation Models to CBO's Baseline Projections
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D. and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #07-02)
Changes in tax policy can influence economic incentives to work, save, and invest. Subsequent changes in employment and incomes can affect federal tax revenues. Dynamic analyses capturing such interactions between taxes and the economy are facilitated by calibrating economic models of the economy and taxation to the same "baseline" forecast.
February 15, 2007
The 2001 and 2003 Bush Tax Cuts: Economic Effects of Permanent Extension
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1361)
Extending these tax cuts would boost U.S. GDP, employment, incomes, and federal tax collections consistently over the next 10 years.
2006 Research
November 22, 2006
A Dynamic Analysis of the 2001 and 2003 Bush Tax Cuts: Applying an Alternative Technique for Calibrating Macroeconomic and Microsimulation Models
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #06-10)
The authors use a microsimulation model of the federal individual income tax and the Global Insight short-term U.S. Macroeconomic Model to analyze the dynamic economic and budget effects of permanently extending some of the expiring provisions of the 2001 and 2003 tax laws.
August 17, 2006
The Treasury Department's Dynamic Analysis of President Bush's Tax Relief Plan: A Summary and Evaluation
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #06-06)
The Office of Tax Analysis's July 25 summary of its dynamic analysis of the President's proposal to make permanent certain expiring provisions of EGTRRA and JGTRRA could be improved by including additional information on the economic and budgetary effects of changes in tax policy and the sensitivity of the OTA's results to assumptions about the government's long-run fiscal policy.
2005 Research
September 21, 2005
The Economic and Budgetary Effects of the Katrina Emergency Tax Relief Act of 2005
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(White Paper #9999)
Projections of the bill's economic and budgetary effects.
April 19, 2005
Raising the Social Security Wage Cap Would Hurt Small Businesses
By Norbert J. Michel, Ph.D., J. Scott Moody, and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1845)
Raising the Social Security wage cap would not fix Social Security's finances, but it would directly increase taxes for 3 million small-business owners by as much as $242 billion over the next five years, leaving the small-business sector with $242 billion less to hire and pay workers, to purchase equipment, and to expand businesses.
2004 Research
November 24, 2004
A Research Program on the Interplay Between Entrepreneurial Activity and Tax Policy
By Norbert J. Michel, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-16)
Little attention has been paid to the relationship between entrepreneurship (at all levels) and federal tax policy. Numerous databases could—and do—support research into this relationship, and this research promises to produce insights that could shape tax policies in order to strengthen entrepreneurship and economic activity.
October 25, 2004
Dividend Policy and the 2003 Tax Cut: Preliminary Evidence
By Norbert J. Michel, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #594)
Research suggests that these tax cuts did influence corporate behavior.
September 20, 2004
The Candidates' Tax Plans: Comparing the Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Bush and Kerry Tax Proposals
By William W. Beach, Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D., Rea S. Hederman, Jr., Alfredo B. Goyburu, and Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-09)
Senator John Kerry's tax plan slows economic activity until 2011, when it generally adopts President George Bush's approach of permanent tax cuts. Even so, the Bush plan consistently outperforms the Kerry plan. President Bush relies on supply-side tax changes while Senator Kerry focuses much of his attention on demand-side policy with targeted tax policy changes that yield the unintended consequence of producing a tax cut for high-income taxpayers after 2011.
September 17, 2004
The Revenue Effects of Reinstating the Top Tax Rates
By Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #568)
CDA estimates the six-year revenue effect of reinstating the top individual income tax rates.
September 10, 2004
Peace of Mind in Retirement: Making Future Generations Better Off by Fixing Social Security
By William W. Beach, Alfredo B. Goyburu, Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D., David C. John, Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Thomas Bingel
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-06)
American workers could accumulate wealth in the thousands (in some cases, hundreds of thousands) of dollars through a Social Security reform that includes personal retirement accounts. This increased wealth would be in addition to a maintenance level of Social Security benefits and could help millions of parents, their children, and their grandchildren to attain greater economic security and independence through their own personalized retirement assets.
2003 Research
May 05, 2003
Ohio Companies' Cost of Capital Would Fall
By Norbert J. Michel, Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D., and Alfredo Goyburu
(WebMemo #269)
By estimating the weighted average cost of capital for a sample of 87 publicly traded firms in Ohio, we found that the President's plan would have lowered their cost of capital by an average of about 2.7 percent.
April 30, 2003
How the President's Dividend Plan Would Increase Corporate Investment
By Norbert J. Michel, Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D., and Alfredo Goyburu
(Center for Data Analysis Report #0307)
Opponents claim that dividend tax relief would benefit only the wealthiest taxpayers, while supporters claim that it would spur new corporate investment, leading to additional jobs and higher incomes.
April 16, 2003
The Economic and Fiscal Effects of the President's Growth Package
By William W. Beach, Ralph A. Rector, Alfredo Goyburu, and Norbert J. Michel
(Center for Data Analysis Report #03-05)
Congressional efforts to fashion the FY 2004 budget come at a time when the United States faces weaker than expected job growth, shrinking consumer confidence, and a heightened level of risk and uncertainty. Among the plans being considered is one that President George W. Bush proposed on January 7, 2003: a bold tax reform proposal that would increase economic growth.
April 16, 2003
Appendix: The Economic and Fiscal Effects of the President's Growth Package
By William W. Beach, Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D., Alfredo Goyburu, and Norbert J. Michel
(Center for Data Analysis Report #03-05)
Appendix: The Economic and Fiscal Effects of the President's Growth Package
March 25, 2003
What the CBO Director Really Said
By Ralph Rector, Ph.D., and Rea Hederman
(WebMemo #237)
CBO analysis shows that the type of tax reductions found in the President's Economic Growth package work to offset the drag on the economy from increased spending.
February 03, 2003
CDA Working Paper
By Norbert J. Michel, Alfredo Goyburu, and Ralph Rector, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #Working Paper)
Economic analysts at the Center for Data Analysis (CDA) at The Heritage Foundation found, in a study of a dividend reform proposal similar to President Bush's, that ending the double taxation of dividends would improve the nation's economic growth, employment level, and other economic indicators over the next 10 years.
2002 Research
October 31, 2002
If the Bush Tax Cut is Repealed
By Ralph A. Rector
(WebMemo #164)
Repeal of the Bush 2001 tax plan in 2003 would increase taxes or reduce refunds for filers in all income classes in 2004. Increases would be particularly noticeable for taxpayers with incomes over $50,000.
September 17, 2002
Confidential Info Protection & Statistical Efficiency Act
By Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Testimony #9999)
Three standards that should guide any proposal to improve America's statistical system are: (1) protection of individual identity for the respondents who provide original data, (2) production of useful, timely information for data users, and (3) independent evaluations of the data for decision-makers.
May 22, 2002
Will the Bush Administration Hold the Line on COPS?
By David B. Muhlhausen and Ralph Rector
(Backgrounder #1550)
Now that the budget debate has shifted to the appropriating committees of Congress, the President must hold the line on his goal of retargeting the funds of programs such as COPS whose effectiveness has not been proven or that have been demonstrably ineffective.
2001 Research
November 09, 2001
The Effects of Bush's and Daschle's Economic Stimulus Plans
By William W. Beach, D. Mark Wilson, Rea S. Hederman, and Ralph A. Rector
(Center for Data Analysis Report #01-09)
The two current economic stimulus plans reflect the two major views of government's role in economic planning. While both plans transfer income to low- and moderate-income taxpayers through rebates, and assist the unemployed, serious questions have been raised about whether government spending is the way to boost economic activity.
November 07, 2001
The Effects of Bush's & Daschle's Economic Stimulus Plans
By William W. Beach, D. Mark Wilson, Rea S. Hederman and Ralph A. Rector
(WebMemo #53)
The two current economic stimulus plans clearly reflect the two major views of government's role in economic planning. While both plans transfer income to low- and moderate-income taxpayers through rebates and both assist the unemployed, serious questions have been raised about whether increased government spending is the best tool for boosting economic activity.
November 05, 2001
CDA01-08: How Economic Stimulus Proposals Would Effect the Economy
By William W. Beach, D. Mark Wilson, Rea S. Hederman, and Ralph A. Rector
(Center for Data Analysis Report #01-08)
CDA01-08: How the Economic Stimulus Proposals of the Administration, the House, and the Senate Would Effect the Economy
2000 Research
September 25, 2000
The Facts about COPS
By Gareth Davis, David B. Muhlhausen, Dexter Ingram, and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #00-10)
The President's COPS program is expensive, but is it effective?
September 25, 2000
The Facts About COPS: A Performance Overview of the Community Oriented Policing Services Program
By Gareth Davis, David B. Muhlhausen, Dexter Ingram, and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #00-10)
The Facts About COPS: A Performance Overview of the Community Oriented Policing Services Program
1999 Research
September 13, 1999
How Tax Bill Would Affect Families, The Economy, and The Budget
By D. Mark Wilson, William W. Beach, Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D., and Rea S. Hederman, Jr.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #99-06)
The Taxpayer Refund and Relief Act of 1999 (H.R. 2488) promises to give Americans the largest tax reduction since 1981.
March 04, 1999
The Effects of Reducing Federal Income Tax Rates by 10 Percent
By William W. Beach, D. Mark Wilson, Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D., Rea S. Hederman, Jr., and Aaron Schavey
(Center for Data Analysis Report #99-02)
The House and Senate Republican leadership recently announced their interest in using a portion of the current and expected consolidated budget surplus to cut individual income tax payments.
November 20, 2009
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