September 13, 2007
A Baghdad Statistician's Perspective on the Positives and Negatives of Polling in Iraq
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1615)
Due to the difficulties of polling in a place like Iraq, policymakers should approach such polls with caution and should use them to measure trends ...
September 11, 2007
After the Petraeus/Crocker Hearings: Four Issues for Congress
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1610)
General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker advise Congress should build on recent gains in security and local engagements, while continuing to strive toward the goal of ...
September 10, 2007
Understanding Violence and Civilian Casualty Rates in Iraq: An Insider’s View
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1605)
Broad measures show that the "surge" has been a success in reducing civilian casualties and improving overall security in Iraq.
September 7, 2007
Making Progress: What to Expect from General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker's Report on Iraq
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1602)
Recent reports from Iraq provide great insight into some of the major issues and conclusions likely to be raised next week by General Petraeus and ...
May 19, 2006
The SAFE Visa: A Good Starting Point for a Truly Temporary Guest Worker Proposal
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1087)
The current battle over the guest worker provisions of the Senate's Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act (CIRA, S. 2611) centers on the amount of time that ...
April 6, 2006
The Senate Compromise on Immigration: A Path to Amnesty for Up to 10 Million
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1030)
Immigration, amnesty, immigrants
March 21, 2006
What the Latest Numbers on Hunger and Food Insecurity Really Say
By Kirk A. Johnson Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1922)
America's Second Harvest has issued a useful report on the role of its food banks and food rescue organizations in the social safety net, but ...
March 1, 2006
The Real Problem with Immigration... and the Real Solution
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1913)
Efforts to curtail the economic influx of migrants actually worsen the security dilemma by driving many migrant workers underground. A non-citizen guest worker program is ...
October 27, 2005
Teenage Sexual Abstinence and Academic Achievement
By Robert Rector and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Conference Paper )
There is strong and widespread support of teaching sexual abstinence to American teens. Over 90 percent of parents, at a minimum, want teens to be ...
October 19, 2005
"Recapturing" Visas: A Sensible Temporary Fix for America's Foreign Worker Problem
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Tim Kane, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #886)
This reform would increase flexibility, reduce the current backlog, and serve as the basis for further improvements.
October 6, 2005
The Looming Problem of Long-Term Care and Medicaid Spending
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #875)
The Medicaid Commission needs to come up with a way to promote private long-term care insurance.
October 5, 2005
How Immigration Reform Could Help Alleviate the Teacher Shortage
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1884)
Each academic year, public school districts must try to recruit teachers in hard-to-fill specialties like math and science. Congress can help by expanding the H-1B ...
August 30, 2005
New Census Bureau Report Underscores the Need for More Pro-Growth Policies
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Rea S. Hederman, Jr.
(WebMemo #825)
Poverty was basically unchanged in 2004. We need more economic growth to make progress.
July 18, 2005
What to Make of the New NAEP Scores?
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Jonathan Butcher
(WebMemo #797)
Applause is in order, but not a standing ovation.
June 14, 2005
Adolescent Virginity Pledges and Risky Sexual Behaviors
By Robert Rector and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Conference Paper )
Analysis shows that viginity pledgers have lower STD rates than non-pledgers.
June 14, 2005
Virginity Pledgers Have Lower STD Rates and Engage in Fewer Risky Sexual Behaviors
By Robert Rector and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #762)
Counter to some recent research, this analysis shows that viriginity pledges do make a difference.
June 14, 2005
Adolescent Virginity Pledges, Condom Use, and Sexually Transmitted Diseases Among Young Adults
By Robert Rector and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Conference Paper )
Analysis shows that viginity pledgers have lower STD rates than non-pledgers.
April 22, 2005
Keep the Social Security Wage Cap: Nearly a Million Jobs Hang in the Balance
By Rea S. Hederman, Jr., Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #05-04)
Eliminating the cap on taxable earnings would merely delay Social Security's insolvency by seven years. Even after implementing this tax increase, the OASI program in ...
April 19, 2005
How School Choice Programs Can Save Money
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #727)
School choice is fiscally prudent.
April 6, 2005
A Promising Start for the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship Program
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #710)
The first evaluation is in: DC's opportunity scholarship program is off to a great start.
March 29, 2005
What Could Have Been: How PRAs Would Have Benefited the Baby Boomers
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1836)
If workers retiring this year had been allowed to put part of their payroll taxes into personal retirement accounts, their retirement income would be approximately ...
February 24, 2005
Social Security and the Baby Boomers: What Could Have Been
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #673)
With personal accounts, the baby boomers would have been even wealthier today.
February 10, 2005
What If the Baby Boomers Had Personal Retirement Accounts? An Analysis of Retirement Security for Americans Age 40–58
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #05-02)
If Social Security personal retirement accounts had been available to baby boomers, they would have substantially increased the baby boomers' net worth, especially among low-wealth ...
December 17, 2004
Why the NCES Study Is Not the Only--Or Best--Word on Charter School Evaluation
By Jennifer A. Marshall and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #624)
Why to be wary of the NCES study on charters.
December 16, 2004
Mayors' Claims of Growing Hunger Are Once Again Exaggerated
By Melissa G. Pardue, Robert Rector, and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1813)
According to the U.S. Conference of Mayors, food-bank use in major cities has increased at an average rate of 16 percent per year for the ...
December 14, 2004
New Research Brings Good News About Charter Schools
By Jennifer A. Marshall and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #622)
A new study on charters shows their successes.
December 13, 2004
Mayors' Claims of Growing Hunger Appear Once Again Wildly Exaggerated
By Melissa G. Pardue, Robert Rector, and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #620)
Is hunger up 17 percent this year? Don't bet on it.
December 6, 2004
Roles of Couples' Relationship Skills and Fathers' Employment in Encouraging Marriage
By Robert Rector and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-14)
An increased recognition of the importance of marriage should lead to policies to help couples that are interested enter into and sustain healthy marriages. Success ...
October 21, 2004
Scorecard on the Economy: A Guide for Policymakers
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., Andrew Grossman, Rea S. Hederman, Jr., and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-10)
More than 1.5 million payroll jobs, and nearly 2 million jobs on the household survey, added over the past year; high output, manufacturing outlook, business ...
October 13, 2004
Insource More Jobs by Raising the H-1B Visa Cap
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #585)
Letting highly skilled workers into the U.S. is a smart policy.
October 7, 2004
Framing the Economic Debate
By Tim Kane, Ph.D., Rea S. Hederman, and Kirk Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #582)
A statistic-rich summary of the state of the economy.
September 21, 2004
Summary: Teens Who Make Virginity Pledges Have Substantially Improved Life Outcomes
By Robert Rector, Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Jennifer A. Marshall
(WebMemo #570)
Adolescents who take a virginity pledge have lower levels of sexual activity and better life outcomes.
September 21, 2004
Teens Who Make Virginity Pledges Have Substantially Improved Life Outcomes
By Robert E. Rector, Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Jennifer A. Marshall
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-07)
Recently released Add Health survey data indicate that adolescents who make a virginity pledge will have fewer sexual partners and are less likely to experience ...
September 10, 2004
Peace of Mind in Retirement: Making Future Generations Better Off by Fixing Social Security
By William W. Beach, Alfredo B. Goyburu, Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D., David C. John, Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Thomas Bingel
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-06)
American workers could accumulate wealth in the thousands (in some cases, hundreds of thousands) of dollars through a Social Security reform that includes personal retirement ...
August 27, 2004
The Data on Poverty and Health Insurance You're Not Reading
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #556)
Do the poor tend to stay poor? Do those who lack health insurance stay uninsured for short or long periods of time?
August 16, 2004
Who Benefits From the New Overtime Regulations? A Data Analysis of the U.S. Department of Labor's Assessment
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-08)
The new overtime regulation is a welcome and long overdue update, and it has broad implications for the more than 100 million workers who do ...
July 14, 2004
New Overtime Regulations: Modernizing Outdated Rules or Eroding Worker Protections?
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Paul Kersey
(WebMemo #535)
Contrary to the Economic Policy Institute's analysis, the new overtime regulation will improve protections for employees.
April 15, 2004
Is Money an Impediment to a College Education? Recent Findings from the Congressional Budget Office
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Executive Memorandum #922)
Congress should resist the urge simply to expand subsidies when reauthorizing the Higher Education Act. Current federal and state financial aid programs allow most low-income ...
March 30, 2004
Adolescents Who Take Virginity Pledges Have Lower Rates of Out-of-Wedlock Births
By Kirk A. Johnson
(Center for Data Analysis Report #04-04)
Young women who take a virginity pledge are about 40 percent less likely to have a child out of wedlock than similar young women who ...
March 26, 2004
Expanding Opportunity for Low-Income High School Students: Pell Grants vs. Advanced Placement Classes
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1742)
Advanced Placement classes and Pell grant-funded college classes are two ways that bright, low-income high school students can earn college degree credits. But AP classes ...
March 9, 2004
Marriage: Still the Safest Place For Women and Children
By Robert E. Rector, Patrick F. Fagan, and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1732)
Social science data clearly show that mothers and children are safest and thrive best in a married family. For example, the incidence of spousal, boyfriend, ...
February 10, 2004
Reforming the Pell Grant Program Can Save Taxpayers Hundreds of Millions of Dollars
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #422)
Streamlining the way information is collected in the Pell grant program could save anywhere between $300 million and $600 million per year.
January 5, 2004
Understanding Poverty in America
By Robert E. Rector and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1713)
If poverty means lacking nutritious food, adequate warm housing, and clothing for a family, relatively few of the 35 million people identified as being "in ...
January 5, 2004
Executive Summary: Understanding Poverty in America
By Robert E. Rector and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Executive Summary #1713)
If poverty means lacking nutritious food, adequate warm housing, and clothing for a family, relatively few of the 35 million people identified as being "in ...
December 17, 2003
Data Sharing Can Reduce Fraud in the Pell Grant Program
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1714)
Next year's Higher Education Act reauthorization and other recently introduced legislation provide Congress and the Bush Administration with an excellent opportunity to cut waste and ...
December 15, 2003
Mayors' Claims of Growing Hunger Appear Wildly Exaggerated
By Melissa G. Pardue, Robert E. Rector, and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1711)
Policymakers should be wary of the claims of "increasing hunger" that are likely to be made in the 2003 U.S. Conference of Mayors report. Year ...
June 27, 2003
Don't Rush to Judgment on Charitable Choice
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Melissa G. Pardue
(Executive Memorandum #889)
President George W. Bush and many Members of Congress desire to expand the ability of faith-based organizations to compete for federal social service contracts. Congress ...
June 26, 2003
The Harmful Effects of Early Sexual Activity and Multiple Sexual Partners Among Women: A Book of Charts
By Robert E. Rector, Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., Lauren R. Noyes, Shannan Martin
(Executive Summary )
This report examines the linkages between early initiation of sexual activity, number of nonmarital sex partners, and human well-being.
June 3, 2003
Sexually Active Teenagers Are More Likely to Be Depressed and to Attempt Suicide
By Robert E. Rector, Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Lauren R. Noyes
(Center for Data Analysis Report #03-04)
Sexually Active Teenagers Are More Likely to Be Depressed
May 20, 2003
Increasing Marriage Would Dramatically Reduce Child Poverty
By Robert E. Rector, Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., Patrick F. Fagan, and Lauren R. Noyes
(Center for Data Analysis Report #03-06)
In 2001, 1.35 million children were born outside marriage. This represents 33.5 percent of all children born in the United States in that year. Children ...
May 1, 2003
Draft Background Information Framework for the National Assessment of Educational Progress
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Testimony )
Discuss of the future research potential for the NAEP, followed by some thoughts on how to improve the NAEP background questionnaire.
August 2, 2002
The Effects of Marriage and Maternal Education in Reducing Child Poverty
By Robert Rector and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #02-05)
Both marriage and maternal education can play a significant role in reducing child poverty. The most effective public policy to reduce child poverty would encourage ...
April 15, 2002
The Effect of Marriage on Child Poverty
By Robert Rector, Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Patrick F. Fagan
(Center for Data Analysis Report #02-04)
The lack of progress in reducing child poverty since 1965 can be explained in part by the erosion of marriage and the growth of poverty-prone ...
April 12, 2002
What the Harvard/Mathematica Study Says About Vouchers and Low-Income African-American Students
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Krista Kafer
(Center for Data Analysis Report #02-03)
Research reveals that voucher-style approaches offer the greater satisfaction among parents who use those vouchers to send their children to a school of choice.
April 10, 2002
Marriage: The Safest Place for Women and Children
By Patrick F. Fagan and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1535)
Social science data clearly show that mothers and children are safest and thrive best in a married family. It is time for the government to ...
December 4, 2001
The Domenici Payroll Tax Holiday: Bad Policy for America
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #62)
Instead of a stimulus plan that is little more than a lump of coal, America needs real and lasting reform in tax and social security ...
June 11, 2001
Why More Money Will Not Solve America's Education Crisis
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D., and Krista Kafer
(Backgrounder #1448)
Rather than bolster funding for programs that have failed to increase student achievement, House and Senate conferees on the reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary ...
May 23, 2001
Understanding Differences in Black and White Child Poverty Rates
By Robert Rector, Kirk A. Johnson, and Patrick F. Fagan
(Center for Data Analysis Report #01-04)
Child poverty is a continuing American problem. This report examines the causes of child poverty and the factors that contribute to racial differences in child ...
September 14, 2000
The Effects of Advanced Teacher Training in Education on Student Achievement
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #00-09)
Advanced degrees in education do not improve teaching quality relative to English, Math, Science degrees.
June 14, 2000
Do Computers in the Classroom Boost Academic Achievement?
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #00-08)
Students who use computers at least once a week in the classroom perform no better on the NAEP than those who use them less than ...
June 9, 2000
Do Small Classes Influence Academic Achievement? What the National Assessment of Educational Progress Shows
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #00-07)
Smaller classes do not seem to improve NAEP scores
May 26, 2000
The Peer Effect on Academic Achievement Among Public Elementary School Students
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #00-06)
Peers' views on academic success among the most important factors in NAEP scores, especially among younger students
October 7, 1999
Comparing Math Scores of Black Students in D.C.'s Public and Catholic Schools
By Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #99-08)
Numerous studies show that minority children in public schools are not making substantial gains in achievement levels on standardized tests.
September 1, 1999
The Extent of Material Hardship and Poverty in the United States
By Robert E. Rector, Kirk A. Johnson, and Sarah E. Youssef
(WebMemo #187)
This paper will take an alternative approach to assessing poverty: examining the material living conditions of low-income Americans.
March 5, 1999
Why a "Super" Ed-Flex Program Is Needed to Boost Academic Achievement
By Nina Shokraii Rees and Kirk A. Johnson, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1261)
Congress this week will consider a bipartisan measure to expand the current Education Flexibility Partnership Demonstration Act of 1994.
October 16, 1998
How Public Policy Reforms Would Unleash Hispanic America's Economic Potential
By William W. Beach, Gareth G. Davis, Rea S. Hederman, Kirk Johnson, and Nina Shokraii Rees
(Backgrounder #1227)
How Public Policy Reforms Would Unleash Hispanic America's Economic Potential
November 20, 2009
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