PUBLICATIONS BY John J. Tkacik, Jr.
Research
Commentary
Books
Media Appearances
2008 Research
May 02, 2008
Magnequench: CFIUS and China's Thirst for U.S. Defense Technology
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1913)
One of Senator Hillary Clinton's Asia policy advisers quit her presidential campaign several days ago, complaining that the candidate was engaging in "gratuitous China bashing." And, in fact, the Senator has of late been engaged in a jeremiad on China.
March 24, 2008
Taiwan's Elections: Sea Change in the Strait
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1865)
Now that Taipei promises to make peace with Beijing, Washington must move quickly to rebuild U.S. trade and security ties with Taiwan.
March 18, 2008
With Repression in Tibet, Rethink Olympics
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1858)
Unofficial calls for a general boycott of China’s Olympics have gotten Beijing’s attention, but Beijing remains confident that Hollywood celebrities are neither serious about nor capable of achieving a boycott.
February 08, 2008
Trojan Dragon: China's Cyber Threat
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #2106)
"Chinese espionage activities in the United States...comprise the single greatest risk to the security of American technologies," according to the U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission. If the Administration and Congress do not implement the 2005 recommendations of the Defense Science Board, the fix will become prohibitively expensive, and America's national security could be irreversibly compromised.
February 08, 2008
Executive Summary: Trojan Dragon: China's Cyber Threat
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Executive Summary #2106)
"Chinese espionage activities in the United States...comprise the single greatest risk to the security of American technologies," according to the U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission. If the Administration and Congress do not implement the 2005 recommendations of the Defense Science Board, the fix will become prohibitively expensive, and America's national security could be irreversibly compromised.
2007 Research
December 28, 2007
China's Superpower Economy
By John Tkacik
(WebMemo #1762)
China needs to be taken seriously as an international economic force and a strategic and military power.
December 12, 2007
Trojan Dragons: China's International Cyber Warriors
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1735)
China's clandestine intelligence collection is the top intelligence threat to America's science and technology secrets.
September 10, 2007
Dealing with Taiwan's Referendum on the United Nations
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1606)
A distracted Washington is allowing a laser-focused Beijing to shape the strategic agenda in the Pacific.
August 31, 2007
Questioning the CIA's Claim of a Drop in China's Military Spending
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1597)
The CIA may be under political pressure to downplay the "China threat."
August 22, 2007
Beijing Olympics Boycott: A Wake-Up Call
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1590)
Although an American boycott is not feasible, the 2008 Bejing Olympic Games present an opportunity for the Administration and Congress to call attention to the increasingly repressive character of the Chinese regime.
August 15, 2007
Free Trade with Taiwan Is Long Overdue
By John J. Tkacik, Jr., and Daniella Markheim
(Backgrounder #2061)
A U.S.–Taiwan free trade agreement would (among other things) increase U.S. auto, rice, poultry, and livestock exports and open a significant new market for new research medicines. It also would signal Congress’s displeasure with Beijing’s trade misbehavior and demonstrate U.S. resolve in shoring up the eroding geopolitical position of a major American ally in East Asia.
May 17, 2007
China's Quest for a Superpower Military
By John J. Tkacik
(Backgrounder #2036)
China is building a military capable of projecting power throughout Asia and the Western Pacific and could become Asia’s economic, trade, political security, and human rights rule-maker as the United States recedes from the region. Washington needs to make fundamental changes in its Asia policy and engage allies and friendly countries in the region to meet this challenge.
May 17, 2007
Executive Summary: China's Quest for a Superpower Military
By John J. Tkacik
(Executive Summary #2036)
China is building a military capable of projecting power throughout Asia and the Western Pacific and could become Asia’s economic, trade, political security, and human rights rule-maker as the United States recedes from the region. Washington needs to make fundamental changes in its Asia policy and engage allies and friendly countries in the region to meet this challenge.
April 25, 2007
Beijing's Intentions in Space
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1431)
Aside from the Pentagon, the U.S. policy establishment has yet to recognize the significance of China's new anti-satellite capability.
March 08, 2007
A Chinese Military Superpower?
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1389)
A close look at China's military spending suggests that China's intent is to challenge the United States as a military superpower.
January 11, 2007
America's Stake in Taiwan
By John J. Tkacik
(Backgrounder #1996)
In 1945, President Harry Truman declared a “strong, united and democratic China” to be one of “the most vital interests of the United States.” Two out of three is not good enough. Until China is democratic, the most vital U.S. interest must be to maintain America’s strategic posture in the Western Pacific
January 11, 2007
Executive Summary: America's Stake in Taiwan
By John J. Tkacik
(Executive Summary #1996)
In 1945, President Harry Truman declared a “strong, united and democratic China” to be one of “the most vital interests of the United States.” Two out of three is not good enough. Until China is democratic, the most vital U.S. interest must be to maintain America’s strategic posture in the Western Pacific
2006 Research
December 05, 2006
Preparing for the U.S.–China Strategic Economic Dialogue
By Michael A. Needham, Tim Kane, Ph.D., and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1276)
The U.S.–China Strategic Economic Dialogue is an opportunity to promote economic freedom and address challenges the U.S. and China face.
December 04, 2006
China and India: Thawing Relations Unlikely to Lead to Strategic Partnership
By Lisa Curtis and John Tkacik
(WebMemo #1272)
India seeks ties with the rising China but is likely to retain its strategic autonomy.
October 31, 2006
Grim Future for Taiwan's Defenses
By Michael A. Needham and John Tkacik
(WebMemo #1243)
Taiwan must bolster its defenses in order to revive U.S.-Taiwan defense cooperation and to strengthen its position in discussions with China.
October 11, 2006
A New Tack for China after North Korea's Nuclear Test?
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1236)
The U.S. should press Beijing to join in supporting tough sanctions on Pyongyang.
September 26, 2006
China and the Middle East: A New Patron of Regional Instability
By Ji Hye Shin and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1974)
China regards its patronage of Middle Eastern states like Iran and Syria and radical groups like Hezbollah and Hamas as crucial to its geopolitical success. If Washington is to nudge Beijing into supporting peace, stability, and nonproliferation in the Middle East, U.S. leaders must confront Beijing publicly and forcefully about China’s unsettling pattern of behavior in the region.
July 14, 2006
China's 'Time for Choosing'
By Michael A. Needham and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1161)
China's latest United Nations veto threat should convince even the most generous diplomat that Beijing is part of the problem in North Korea, not a "partner" in a solution. If it ever hopes to get a solution, Washington should now make Beijing's policy toward North Korea a vital test of China's ability and desire to be a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system. Specifically, the United States should insist on the introduction of the Japanese draft Chapter VII resolution proposing sanctions against North Korea for noncompliance and allow China to use its veto, if it follows through on its threat.
July 11, 2006
China's Army Yawns at Pyongyang's Missiles
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1148)
After initially expressing "concern" over North Korea's July 4th missile launches, China's unwillingness to work towards serious sanctions on North Korea provides further proof that Beijing has little interest in restraining Pyongyang. What are we to make of the disconnect between Chinese rhetoric and action? In many ways, it reflects a disconnect between the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA)—which almost certainly does not share any real concerns about North Korea's missile provocations—and Chinese diplomats, who have largely been kept out of the loop.
May 24, 2006
Panda Hedging: Pentagon Report Urges New Strategy for China
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1093)
The Pentagon's fifth annual "Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China" was sent to Congress this week. Even more than its predecessors, this year's report is unsettling, with myriad disturbing revelations: the military balance across the Taiwan Strait has now tipped in China's favor; China's military doctrine appears to view Taiwan as a stepping stone to a broader and farther reaching strategic presence in the Western Pacific; China's military has made major advances in strategic weapons; the Chinese military is in the midst of a debate on a new, more threatening nuclear doctrine; and China is far from behaving as a responsible stakeholder in the global community. As the new report confirms, "hedging" has become the watchword in China relations in Washington. It's about time.
April 20, 2006
Is China Complicit in North Korean Currency Counterfeiting?
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1046)
Growing evidence that China has not been an innocent bystander in North Korea's traffic in bogus bills.
April 18, 2006
Confront China's Support for Iran's Nuclear Weapons
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1042)
The Chinese government has a broad security relationship with Iran.
April 17, 2006
Hedging Against China
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1925)
Beijing prudently avoids head-on collisions with U.S. policies, but China's strategic unhelpfulness in virtually every policy area (WMD proliferation, North Korea, Iran, Taiwan, the war on terrorism, and even the traffic in counterfeit currency) is destabilizing. China has moved too far in the wrong direction for anyone to say that Beijing will act as a responsible stakeholder without considerable pressure.
March 01, 2006
China's Submarine Challenge
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #1001)
A big buildup leads to big questions about China's intent and the U.S. response.
2005 Research
November 15, 2005
Nothing in Common: A Policy Review for President Bush's China Visit
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #917)
President Bush must steel himself to the realities of an emerging global environment in which the U.S. and China have very few common objectives and an Asia that is increasingly coming under China's shadow.
November 02, 2005
Keep the Internet Free of the United Nations
By Brett D. Schaefer, John J. Tkacik, Jr., and James L. Gattuso
(WebMemo #904)
The world body considers a new and troubling approach to Internet governance.
October 19, 2005
China and ASEAN: Endangered American Primacy in Southeast Asia
By Dana R. Dillon and John J. Tkacik, Jr.,
(Backgrounder #1886)
If the United States hopes to avoid the emergence of a Beijing-dominated Southeast Asia, it must reengage the region by giving priority to new free trade agreements (FTAs), fuller participation and leadership in other pacts such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and stronger bilateral anti-terrorism and disaster relief cooperation.
September 30, 2005
Sino-Russian Military Maneuvers: A Threat to U.S. Interests in Eurasia
By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1883)
The balance of power in Eurasia may be changing, and not in favor of the United States. Today, Moscow and Beijing share a belief in diluting American global supremacy and opposing the U.S. rhetoric of freedom and democracy. Washington needs to formulate a clear strategy to preserve U.S. influence in the region, develop energy resources, cultivate democratic reforms, and oppose authoritarianism.
September 02, 2005
Guess Hu's Coming to Lunch?
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #829)
An agenda for the not-quite "state visit."
July 27, 2005
China's Military Power
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Testimony #9999)
Mr. Chairman, Members of the Committee, it is an honor and privilege to appear before you today to discuss China's growing military power and its impact on the strategic balance in the Asia Pacific region. It is a hackneyed practice to congratulate the committee on "timely and important" hearings, but under the circumstances, as the United States faces a military challenge from a rising China as evidenced by the latest Pentagon Report...
July 25, 2005
Pentagon Report on Chinese Military Power Deserves Careful Reading
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #804)
On July 19, the Pentagon briefed its "2005 Annual Report on the military Power of the People's Republic of China" to Congress.
July 12, 2005
The East Asia Security Act: A Step Towards Consensus Against Arms Sales to China
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #793)
EASA would give teeth to diplomat's warnings that Congress wants the EU's China arms embargo to stay.
June 28, 2005
CAFTA's Covert Opponent: China
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #778)
Why does China want to see CAFTA fail?
April 19, 2005
America's "China Policy" Is in Urgent Need of Definition
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Heritage Lecture #874)
Congress should require that the executive branch conduct a strategic survey of U.S. interests and consider the possible ramifications to America's strategic posture in the Western Pacific should Taiwan be forced into a relationship with China that would preclude U.S. strategic cooperation with Taiwan. Policy decisions regarding China and Taiwan must be made to conform with U.S. goals.
April 14, 2005
Japan's Islands and China's Illicit Claims
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #723)
The U.S. should make clear that the Senkakus belong to Japan, not China.
April 04, 2005
Asia's Security Challenges
By Dana R. Dillon, Harvey J. Feldman, Balbina Y. Hwang, and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1839)
The U.S. should set a deadline for North Korea's participation in the six-party process; continue development aid to areas hit by the tsunami; encourage Japan to improve its armed forces' readiness; oppose lifting of the European Union's arms embargo on China; maintain the arms embargo on Nepal until democratic processes are restored; and revive the FBI investigations into Indonesia's Timika murders.
March 17, 2005
E.U. Leadership Finds Little Public Support for Lifting China Arms Ban
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #693)
A European Union defense team seeks to lift its Tiananmen Square arms embargo on China despite strong opposition from the European public and mass media.
March 15, 2005
Does Beijing Approve of North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions?
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1832)
China's main interest is to prolong the six-party talks so that the world will accept a nuclear North Korea just as it has accepted a nuclear India and Pakistan. The U.N. must adopt punitive measures against North Korea, such as economic sanctions, and the United States should be prepared to fall back on the Proliferation Security Initiative framework should China block Security Council action.
January 21, 2005
Don't Let Europe Forget Tiananmen or Zhao Ziyang
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #642)
The U.S. can still convince Europe to keep up its China arms embargo.
2004 Research
December 21, 2004
China's New "Anti-Secession Law" Escalates Tensions in the Taiwan Strait
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #629)
The Bush Administration and Congress should respond to China's latest gambit.
October 27, 2004
Secretary Powell Must Not Change U.S. Policy on Taiwan
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #597)
The Administration must move to repair the damage of Secretary Powell's comments.
October 21, 2004
Powell's Trip to Northeast Asia: Reaffirming Alliances in Tokyo and Seoul and Talking Straight in Beijing
By Balbina Y. Hwang and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #592)
On this, Powell may achieve some progress on the multilateral talks over North Korea.
October 08, 2004
China's Orwellian Internet
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1806)
China's Internet, once a conduit for uncensored information, is now a tool of police surveillance, propaganda, and official disinformation. If a democratic China remains a key goal of America's global strategy, the Bush Administration and Congress must consider ways to penetrate the "Great Firewall of China."
July 20, 2004
The Defense Authorization Bill: A Survival Guide
By Jack Spencer, Baker Spring, Nile Gardiner, Ph.D., Brett D. Schaefer, and John J. Tkacik
(Backgrounder #1780)
As the conference committee reconciles the House and Senate versions of the 2005 defense authorization bill, some of the most important differences that must be resolved include the issues of missile defense; base realignment and closure; the U.N. Oil-for-Food scandal; U.S.–Taiwan military-to-military exchanges; Rapid Acquisition Authority; and "Buy America" and other protectionist purchasing requirements.
July 13, 2004
China's New Challenge to the U.S.-Japan Alliance
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #533)
Washington must publicly support Japan if it hopes to deter China from adventurism in Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone
June 18, 2004
Needed: High-level Contacts between U.S. and Taiwan Military Commanders
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #522)
Allowing such exchanges is vital to ensuring America's national security interests and foreign obligations.
June 18, 2004
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #522)
June 07, 2004
Blair Could Make a Strategic Error on China
By John J. Tkacik, Jr., and Nile Gardiner, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1768)
The Bush Administration should urge the British government to reconsider its support for French-driven plans to lift the EU arms embargo on China. It should convey the message that lifting the ban will harm U.S. strategic goals in Asia and will weaken the international campaign to advance human rights in China.
April 29, 2004
Offer Real Support, Not Excuses, for Taiwan's WHO Bid
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Executive Memorandum #927)
The United States should take the lead in supporting Taiwan's participation in the World Health Organization and other international bodies because it is in the U.S. national interest. The more Taiwan is accepted into the international community as a valuable contributor, the less legitimate is China's claim of a legal right to use force against Taiwan.
March 18, 2004
Washington Must Head Off European Arms Sales to China
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1739)
With the European Union likely to lift the embargo on arms sales to China at the March 25-26 Brussels summit, the Bush Administration should remind the EU why the embargo exists; point out that lifting the embargo could threaten U.S. forces and could be interpreted as an unfriendly act; and exclude from defense technology cooperation those companies that sell arms to China.
March 04, 2004
Perspectives on Democracy in Hong Kong
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Testimony #9999)
My first professional glimpses of Hong Kong came thirty years ago as a vice consul based in Taipei working on U.S. visa and immigration matters, and after serving nearly a decade in Taiwan and China, I returned to Hong Kong as deputy chief of the Consular Section at the US Consulate General.
February 19, 2004
Beijing Reads Democracy in Hong Kong the (Pat)Riot Act
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #429)
If the "global expansion of democracy" is really a pillar of American foreign policy, then both the Bush Administration and the Congress need pay more attention to what's going on in Hong Kong.
January 21, 2004
Taiwan's Missile Referendum
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #401)
Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian has announced wording for a referendum designed to draw both domestic and international attention to China's missile threat to the democratic island. The U.S. should back its ally.
2003 Research
December 22, 2003
Time for Washington to Take a Realistic Look at China Policy
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1717)
Over the past two years, more often than not, China has opposed U.S. interests or has remained neutral or aloof. A constructive and cooperative relationship with China can emerge only if American policymakers understand that the promotion of democratic ideals and a stable American presence in Asia are objectives that China's leaders seek to obstruct, and then engage China on that basis alone.
December 22, 2003
Executive Summary: Time for Washington to Take a Realistic Look at China Policy
By John J. Tkacik, Jr
(Executive Summary #1717)
Over the past two years, more often than not, China has opposed U.S. interests or has remained neutral or aloof. A constructive and cooperative relationship with China can emerge only if American policymakers understand that the promotion of democratic ideals and a stable American presence in Asia are objectives that China's leaders seek to obstruct, and then engage China on that basis alone.
December 02, 2003
Needed: A Realistic Look at China Policy
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Executive Memorandum #907)
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's December 9 visit to Washington is an opportunity to reassess the U.S.-China relationship and dispel myths that color the U.S. view of China's role in Asia. The Administration and Congress should reexamine their China policy and reconsider why they abandoned the candid, firm, and successful pre-September 11 approach for a policy of conciliation and compromise, which has yielded little beyond rhetoric.
October 23, 2003
The U.S. Must Face Up to China's Trade Challenges
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1698)
China has been a member of the World Trade Organization for almost two years but is still dragging its heels on fulfilling its WTO commitments. Because it is clear that China will not change its behavior unless it faces credible prospects of retaliation, persuading it to comply with its WTO obligations will take a combination of economic leverage and diplomatic pressure.
October 10, 2003
The APEC Forum: Time to Make a Difference
By Dana R. Dillon, Balbina Y. Hwang, John J. Tkacik, Jr., James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., and Sara J. Fitzgerald
(Backgrounder #1696)
The October 20-21 APEC Leaders' Summit in Thailand provides a unique opportunity for President George W. Bush to encourage trade liberalization among APEC economies, promote economic reform in Japan and South Korea, prevent a nuclear North Korea, strengthen regional law enforcement, block terrorist financing, persuade China to meet its WTO obligations, encourage counterterrorism initiatives, and gain support for American sanctions on Burma.
August 25, 2003
Getting China to Support a Denuclearized North Korea
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1678)
In the upcoming August 27-29 "six-party" talks in Beijing, the United States must not risk turning the clock back to August 1994, when the Chinese persuaded the Clinton Administration to give North Korea billions in aid without first requiring Pyongyang to forswear its nuclear ambitions. To avoid repeating past mistakes, U.S. negotiators must have a clear-eyed view of China's role in the North Korean nuclear issue.
July 18, 2003
Lend Momentum to Hong Kong's Democratization
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #318)
In the aftermath of a half-million-strong popular protest against strict new anti-sedition laws, the resignation of two senior Hong Kong cabinet officials on July 16 provides convincing evidence that Hong Kong's political culture has the potential to withstand dictates from China's leadership.
July 03, 2003
Responding to a Paris-Beijing Arms Axis
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #309)
France's recent overture to China as a prospective member of a Paris-led multi-national alignment against the United States and its European Allies should be met with a swift and stern response, as well as a re-assessment of standing defense and trade agreements with those who would boost Beijing's military capabilities.
June 10, 2003
ASEAN Regional Forum: Promoting U.S. Interests
By Dana R. Dillon, Balbina Y. Hwang, and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1659)
The June 18, 2003, ASEAN Regional Forum in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, provides an outstanding opportunity for U.S. policymakers to advance important national interests in such areas as terrorism, piracy, reform of the Indonesian military, North Korean refugees, and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. It is important that the United States assert its positions strongly, either publicly in open session or confidentially to ARF partners.
May 20, 2003
China's Chip Cheating Needs Swift U.S. Response
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #278)
China is in serious violation of its World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments by levying a 17 percent "value added tax" (VAT) on foreign semiconductor and integrated circuits products...
April 25, 2003
An American Response to China's SARS Failures
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Executive Memorandum #870)
The episode raises doubts about China's commitment to the World Health Organization that cannot be dispelled merely by sacking scapegoats from rival factions in China's leadership. In contrast to China's SARS cover-up, both Hong Kong and Taiwan moved quickly to contain the epidemic and aid patients from outside their borders.
2002 Research
November 12, 2002
Strategic Risks for East Asia
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #171)
China has potential to become a valuable, cooperative, constructive member of the Asia–Pacific economic community; but it could also become the opposite—a fearsome, aggressive, and militaristic power. How Beijing addresses its differences with Taiwan will be the bellwether of China's future role in Asia.
October 17, 2002
Back to Basics: An Economic Agenda for APEC
By Dana Robert Dillon, Balbina Y. Hwang, John J. Tkacik, Jr. and Brett D. Schaefer
(Backgrounder #1604)
President Bush needs to set the global trading system on a firm footing for sustained economic growth at APEC this year. He should encourage economic reform in Japan and Korea, support democratic Taiwan, forge free trade agreements, and set the stage for WTO negotiations.
October 17, 2002
bg1604es: Back to Basics: An Economic Agenda for APEC
By Dana Robert Dillon, Balbina Y. Hwang, John J. Tkacik, Jr. and Brett D. Schaefer
(Executive Summary #1604)
bg1604es: Back to Basics: An Economic Agenda for APEC
October 10, 2002
wm157: Strategic Risks in U.S. and Taiwan Advanced Technology
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(WebMemo #157)
Strategic Risks in U.S. and Taiwan Advanced Technology Investments in China
July 15, 2002
Why The Department of Homeland Security
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Testimony #9999)
The DHS Visa Office must take the responsibility of training, indoctrinating and equipping visa officers abroad, and ensuring that they or their supervisors have access to the relevant intelligence and name-check databases needed to screen alien visa applicants effectively.
July 12, 2002
BG1569: Why the Department of Homeland Security
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1569)
BG1569: Why the Department of Homeland Security Should Control Visas
June 03, 2002
Free Trade Agreement with Taiwan
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1557)
A free trade agreement between the U.S. and Taiwan would be a significant boon to American agricultural, manufacturing, and financial services exporters. It must ensure that Taiwan cannot unreasonably close its important agricultural markets and that its laws relating to the protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights are strengthened.
April 26, 2002
BG1541ES: A Primer on U.S.-China-Taiwan Policy
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Executive Summary #1541)
BG1541ES: Stating America's Case to China's Hu Jintao: A Primer on U.S.-China-Taiwan Policy
April 26, 2002
A Primer on U.S.-China-Taiwan Policy
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Backgrounder #1541)
Leaders in both China and the United States well recognize that if relations between their nations are to improve, China must step away from assertive behaviors and look for peaceful ways to improve relations with Taiwan.
April 19, 2002
Who's Hu?
By John J. Tkacik, Jr., Joseph Fewsmith, and Maryanne Kivlehan
(Heritage Lecture #739)
The list of what we don't know about Hu Jintao and his prospects as China's new leader is much longer than the list of what we do. One reason for this is a simple lack of data.
February 12, 2002
President Bush's Trip to Asia
By John J. Tkacik, Jr. and Balbina Hwang
(Backgrounder #1517)
On his first official state visits to Japan, Korea, and China, President Bush must seek ways to address America's goals of greater security, prosperity, and peace in the vital Asia region. He must discuss ways to strengthen alliance coordination with Japan and Korea and to confront Beijing's proliferation activities.
January 25, 2002
The United States Should Encourage India and Pakistan to Disengage
By Dana R. Dillon and John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Executive Memorandum #799)
The United States should focus its diplomatic efforts on convincing India and Pakistan that military brinkmanship only complicates the problems that arise during their periodic crises. Their unrestrained nuclear saber-rattling after the December 13 massacre demonstrates that India and Pakistan are unprepared for the responsibilities that come with being a nuclear power.
2001 Research
October 04, 2001
Preparing for the APEC Summit
By John J. Tkacik, Jr., Dana Robert Dillon, Balbina Y. Hwang, and Sara J. Fitzgerald
(Backgrounder #1487)
As so many heads of state and government in the Asia-Pacific region come together for the APEC summit this month, President Bush has a unique opportunity to shore up support among Asian allies for the war on terrorism.
October 04, 2001
BG1487es: Preparing for the APEC Summit
By John J. Tkacik, Dana R. Dillon, Balbina Hwang, and Sara J. Fitzgerald
(Executive Summary #1487)
BG1487es: Preparing for the APEC Summit: Mobilizing Asian Allies for War
September 07, 2001
Needed: A Strong Response to Beijing's Boycott
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Executive Memorandum #773)
The mere prospect of congressional consideration of special Taiwan anti-boycott legislation should quickly focus Beijing's attention on the gravity of U.S. concerns. It should also convince Beijing to step back from a policy that could result in a contentious trade war.
August 21, 2001
China-Taiwan Dialogue Could Begin at the APEC Summit
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Executive Memorandum #767)
China's response to the United States' recommendation that President Chen be invited as a full participant to the APEC summit will be an indication of whether China is truly interested in resolving its differences with Taiwan peacefully.
August 10, 2001
Human Rights and Security Issues
By John J. Tkacik, Jr.
(Executive Memorandum #764)
Linking the 2008 Olympics directly to peace in the Asia-Pacific region would provide effective leverage over China's behavior for the next seven years. It also would demonstrate that Washington is committed to furthering human rights and democratic principles, and that affronts to those values will not be ignored.
February 12, 2001
BG1517es: President Bush's Trip to Asia: Promoting Security, Prosperity, and Peace
By John J. Tkacik and Balbina Hwang
(Executive Summary #1517)
BG1517es: President Bush's Trip to Asia: Promoting Security, Prosperity, and Peace
2008 Commentary
April 15, 2008
Leadership event
By John J. Tkacik Jr.
U.S. leadership on human rights faces a severe test on Tibet. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy have — despite Europe's burgeoning trade ties with China — voiced their strong concern about Beijing's ongoing violent suppression of dissent in Tibet, demonstrations in Xinjiang and stepped-up arrests of dissident writers and activists among China's intellectuals.
2007 Commentary
October 27, 2007
China's Crown Princeling
By John J. Tkacik Jr.
Who is Xi Jinping? It's possibly the most important question in China today. At the 17th Party Congress, Mr. Xi was made head of the Party secretariat to the Standing Committee of the Politburo
October 09, 2007
Will History Repeat With Latest Taiwan Arms Deal?
By John J. Tkacik Jr.
All the ingredients are there for a replay of history: Republicans, Democrats, China, Taiwan, F-16 fighter jets and 5,800 jobs at the U.S. Air Force Plant 4 in Fort Worth, Texas.
October 01, 2007
Taiwan's status remains 'unsettled'
By John J. Tkacik Jr.
On the matter of Taiwan, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has gone too far, even for the US State Department.
August 07, 2007
The Arsenal of the Iraq Insurgency: It's made in China.
By John J. Tkacik Jr.
This year, many truckloads of small arms and explosives direct from Chinese government-owned factories to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been transshipped to Iraq and Afghanistan, where they are used against American soldiers and Marines and NATO forces. Since April, according to a knowledgeable Bush administration official, "vast amounts" of Chinese-made large caliber sniper rifles, "millions of rounds" of ammunition, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and "IED [improvised explosive device] components" have been convoyed from Iran into Iraq and to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
August 01, 2007
Approve Taiwan Arms Buy; Don't Let China Dictate U.S. Policy
By John Tkacik
After four years of complaining that Taiwan hasn’t bought the advanced weapon systems that the Bush administration approved in April 2001, the State Department appears unwilling now, at long last, to take “yes” for an answer.
May 11, 2007
China alarms ringing
By John Tkacik
Fifteen years ago, the U.S. intelligence community judged that the People's Liberation Army of China was more than 20 years behind the West. In January, the PLA brought down a satellite with an ultra-sophisticated "kinetic kill vehicle" weapon. Today, no one views China's nuclear or missile capabilities as anything other than cutting-edge.
March 14, 2007
Chinese Military Superpower?
By John Tkacik
On March 4, China's National People's Congress announced it would increase the country's military budget 17.8 percent in 2007 to a total of $45 billion. Though this was the biggest single annual increase in China's military spending, the Chinese government reassured the world this spending hike was normal and need not worry anyone.
February 27, 2007
What's in a Name? Ask Tawain.
By Gary Schmitt and John Tkacik
The Bush administration, which once pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan, is increasingly distancing itself from the prosperous and democratic island. This has been going on since August 3, 2002, when Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, first declared that "each side [of the Taiwan Strait] is its own nation." Although this assertion had the benefit of being true, it incensed Beijing's leaders, who pressured the United States into rebuking Chen, in exchange for possible Chinese support at the United Nations when dealing with Iraq.
January 19, 2007
The US stake in Asian democracy
By John Tkacik
As the US started this year with a Congress controlled by the Democrats, I wrote an opinion piece for the Heritage Foundation on "America's Stake in Taiwan" to help new congressmen and senators put Taiwan into a global perspective. Now that the Legislative Yuan in Taipei is contemplating this year's defense budget, I thought I would share my observations on the relationship between the US and Taiwan.
2006 Commentary
May 10, 2006
To the Moon
By John Tkacik
You wouldn't have thought America is in a mood to reach for the moon with China.
March 02, 2006
Chen Lets Off Steam
By John Tkacik
It's fashionable in some quarters to suggest that the Bush administration is exasperated with Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's supposed attempts to "provoke" China.metamorphosis, and now has a new steeliness to it.
February 21, 2006
Revenge of the Panda Hugger
By John Tkacik
Don't let Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick's fondness for pandas mislead you. The Bush administration's China policy has been undergoing a quiet metamorphosis, and now has a new steeliness to it.
January 21, 2006
Stumble on the Steppes
By John Tkacik
It's been a messy week in Mongolia, with the collapse of its coalition government, legislators switching sides and protesters breaking into the headquarters of its largest political party.
2005 Commentary
December 21, 2005
China's Rulers And State Violence
By John Tkacik
Tibetans have known for over 16 years that Chinese Communist Party leader Hu Jintao is no wimp. And now, so do most Chinese. As several instances of violence against anti-government protesters during the past year demonstrate, Hu is both a true believer in, and an effective practitioner of, Mao's dictum that "political power comes from the barrel of a gun."
December 14, 2005
Taiwan's New Political Landscape
By John Tkacik
Saturday's local city and country elections in Taiwan have dramatically changed the island's political landscape. In what amounted to a referendum on the performance of President Chen Shui-bian's government, his Democratic Progressive Party lost every seat outside its traditional southern strongholds, leaving it holding only six of Taiwan's 20 major constituencies.
December 14, 2005
China's Quest for Asia
By Dana Dillon and John Tkacik
November 10, 2005
Hu Meets a New Europe
By John Tkacik
A year ago, French President Jacques Chirac set out the core of a new strategic vision that would exclude the United States in favor of a European realignment with China. "Reasons of international balance justify strengthening links between Europe and China, I'd even say between Europe, Russia and China," he told an audience in Shanghai.
October 20, 2005
Don't Bow to Beijing's Pressure
By John Tkacik
Taiwan's former president, an agricultural economist with a Cornell doctorate, Lee Teng-hui, is in Washington this week for what he, and just about everybody involved, emphasizes is a "private visit."
September 30, 2005
Agreed Framework, Part Deux
By John Tkacik
Last February, when North Korea trumpeted to the world that it did indeed possess "nukes" and felt "compelled" to suspend its participation in the six-party talks because of the "hostile" attitude of the United States, I wrote that eventually, Beijing would "[n]o doubt&persuade" Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table. "But it is a certainty," I predicted, "that there will be no progress at the six-party talks, however long they last, because it's not in Beijing's interests to see the process come to an end."
July 28, 2005
For Democracy, the Economy, and our Allies, We Need CAFTA Now
By John Tkacik
Any day now, the House of Representatives will vote on the Central American Free Trade Agreement. The outcome is considered too close to call. But the stakes are huge
July 01, 2005
Not Strictly Business: China's Bid to Buy Unocal
By John Tkacik
It's a heck of an offer. In an 11th hour bid to buy Unocal, China's state-run CNOOC Ltd. last week offered $19.6 billion, cash, for America's ninth largest oil company.
June 29, 2005
Say No to Cnooc's Bid for Unocal
By John Tkacik
China National Offshore Oil Corporation presumably chose the codename "Operation Bao Chuan" for its Unocal offer to conjure up national pride in its bid to buy America's ninth largest oil company.
June 21, 2005
Mongolia's Democratic Identity
By John Tkacik
As one of the few Western election observers at the May 22 presidential balloting in Mongolia, I can report that the voting was fair, untainted by intimidation or overt monkey business.
May 14, 2005
Do-Gooders Make Things Worse for Taiwan
By John Tkacik
To hear some in the Bush administration talk, its now only a matter of time before Beijing does the unthinkable and seeks a reconciliation with Chen Shui-bian, the Taiwanese president whom they have vilified ever since he was first elected in March 2000.
May 03, 2005
Hu, What, Wen, Where, and Why
By John Tkacik
Millions of Chinese families suffered during the invasion and occupation of the mainland by Imperial Japanese armies in the Second World War.
April 19, 2005
Zen Will China Get a Pope?
By John Tkacik
If the October 1978 election of John Paul II is a portent for the future, then the next pope will be Chinese. Poland and Eastern Europe needed a Polish pope in 1978, and China needs a Chinese pope today.
March 10, 2005
Secession Law Strains Ties
By John Tkacik
Beijing's new anti-secession law can hardly fail to exacerbate existing tensions in U.S.-China relations.
February 22, 2005
China Is Using North Korea As Leverage
By John Tkacik
Beijing's low-key reaction to Pyongyang's recent revelation that it has "manufactured nukes for self-defense" is striking evidence that Chinese leaders -- if not lower-level academics and junior diplomats --
February 09, 2005
Forgetting Tiananmen: Eager To Rebuild Trade, EU Ignores Rights Violations
By John Tkacik
We now know how the bureaucrats in the European Commission will mark the death of Zhao Ziyang, the general-secretary of the Chinese Communist Party who fought against the crushing of China's democracy movement at Tiananmen in 1989 and was purged for his troubles.
January 10, 2005
The Invasion of Taiwan
By John Tkacik
News that China's National People's Congress Standing Committee has placed an "anti-secession law" on the agenda for next March's NPC session raises the question, "Don't China's lawmakers have anything better to do?"
2004 Commentary
December 16, 2004
'Wholesale' disaster for Taiwan's DPP
By John Tkacik
Chen Hsiu-ching, one of the successful Kuomintang (KMT) candidates for Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, representing Changhwa county or, more precisely, Lu-kang township, is a pleasant woman of considerable means.
December 15, 2004
The Trouble in Taiwan
By John Tkacik
The unexpected defeat of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party in legislative elections Saturday will no doubt abate worries in Washington that Taiwan's infant democracy had been getting a bit ahead of itself.
December 02, 2004
A Fresh Start for America's Asian Policy
By John Tkacik
Condoleezza Rice's forthcoming assumption of the post of U.S. Secretary of State offers a golden opportunity for Washington to take a more assertive stance in challenging China's rising influence in Asia, and ensure that the U.S. retains its traditional role as the dominant power in the region.
October 29, 2004
Kung Pao Taiwan
By John Tkacik
Two years from now, "Kung Pao Taiwan" will be seen as the beginning of a major strategic error reverberating across Asia.
October 25, 2004
Plain Talk needed in Beijing
By John Tkacik
In the past year, various top U.S. officials have made clear statements of American policy to the Congress and to the press. But for some reason, that clarity seems to be lacking in face-to-face encounters with Chinese.
October 25, 2004
Colin Powell's Agenda in China
By John Tkacik
During his visit to Asia this week, Colin Powell can expect Chinese leaders to speak bluntly, and the U.S. secretary of state will need to speak pl
